In the month of 1, the market is approaching the end of the year, the rebound pressure is increasing, and the effect of new blood is still there. The market will still fluctuate at the end of the year, so it is recommended to balance the allocation. The year is approaching, how to invest in the fund? The following small series will tell you.
The balance between the two financial institutions declined slightly, and the investment sentiment recovered cautiously.
Emotionally, the data shows that the position of partial stock funds has dropped by 1. 13% in the past week, and the current position is 75. 1%. Among them, stock funds decreased by 0.92%, and standard hybrid funds decreased by 1. 15%, and the current positions were 87.63% and 74.64% respectively. According to the latest data of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, the balance of the two financial institutions declined slightly last week, reaching 1. 18 trillion yuan as of February 3. In addition, the trading volume of the stock market has also declined. From the data point of view, investor sentiment will return to caution in the short term.
The position calculation from Zhonglu Fund Research Center also shows that1from October 30th to February 5th, excluding QDII funds and index funds, the average position of open-ended partial stock funds in the sample decreased by 2. 15 percentage points from 84. 12% in the previous week to 8 1.97%. Among them, the average position of equity funds was 87.47%, down 1.98 percentage points from the previous week; The average position of hybrid funds was 72.09%, down 2. 14 percentage points from the previous week. Among the 537 partial stock funds, 205 funds remained basically unchanged, 70 funds chose to increase their positions, 262 funds chose to reduce their positions, and a large number of funds chose to reduce their positions.
Stock-based performance generally rose, led by value style.
According to the statistics of Shikai Financial Products Research Center, in the past week, equity funds rose by 2.3 1% on average, and index products performed better than active ones. Specifically, the average return on the common stock base is 1.47%, about 85% of the products have increased, and the highest return is 5.79% of the HSBC Jintrust market. The average return of index stocks was 2.59%, 96% of products rose, and the highest return was Penghua CSI 800 Real Estate 1 1.36%.
From the perspective of fund style, value style is superior to growth style. In terms of investment scope, theme funds such as real estate and finance performed best, among which products such as Penghua CSI 800 Real Estate, China Merchants CSI 300 Real Estate and HSBC Jintrust Market performed better than similar products. Agricultural theme products have also performed well, and Qianhai Kaiyuan CSI Agriculture and Qianhai Kaiyuan Agriculture have achieved considerable benefits.
The average income of hybrid funds is 0.73%, which is much lower than that of equity funds. Specifically, 73% of the products of hybrid partial stock funds have risen, and the highest income is 6.29% of the southern component selection. 86% of the products of balanced funds rose, and the highest income was 2.62% of that of South Steady Growth No.2. 70% of the products of flexible funds rose, and the highest income was 5.07% of the reform opportunities in South China. 80% products of partial debt funds rose, and the highest income was Xinhua Axin 1 No.3.55%.
In terms of QDII funds, the average decline in the past week was 1.20%, and nearly 88% of products were negative. The performance of the Hong Kong market is better than that of the US market and the European market.
The income of bond funds is relatively balanced, with pure debt funds rising by 0.37% on average, the lowest income is zero, and the highest income is monthly payment by Xincheng 1.67%. The average increase of primary debt base and secondary debt base was 0.38% and 0.47% respectively, and 98% and 90% of products were recovered respectively. The highest return of secondary debt base is 2.37% of Bosera Credit Bond A. The average increase of index debt base is 0.38%, the lowest return is flat, and the highest return is 1.03% of Yin Hua CSI convertible bonds. In addition, the annualized income of the Monetary Fund also rebounded slightly. Last Friday, the seven-day average annualized rate of return of the Monetary Fund was 2.64%, higher than the previous week's 2.55%.
There is no clear rising signal at the end of the year, and positions are carefully controlled.
As the end of the year approaches, institutional people are more cautious about the market outlook. Cao Jianfei, a China-Europe fund, believes that there is no obvious incremental capital inflow in the market in the short term. In addition, small stocks are more expensive and supply is increasing. There is no clear upward signal in the market before the end of the year. But in 2008, the economy is expected to really bottom out and head for a new platform. As the first year of the 13th Five-Year Plan, various reform measures will continue to deepen, monetary policy will still be based on a loose tone, and a new political cycle is about to start. We are optimistic about the market next year.
At present, the deleveraging activity of clearing off-exchange fund-raising has ended. However, monetary policy continues to be loose, inflationary pressure is relatively small, and there is still room for monetary and fiscal policies. At the same time, the expectation of RMB depreciation has come to an end, and SDR will also hedge the risk of the Fed raising interest rates. In Cao Jianfei's view, the overall macro tone is conducive to the capital market.
In the context of loose liquidity, funds tend to chase high-yield assets. Some time ago, due to the stock market crash, funds entered the bond market, which led to a sharp drop in bond yields. At present, the market enthusiasm has gradually turned to the equity market. Cao Jianfei believes that systemic risks have been eliminated and the downside risks of the index are limited. However, the rise of the market will not happen overnight. Considering that there is no high leverage, and the supply factors such as registration system and non-lifting of the ban have suppressed the market, the market may expand in a shocking way. From the perspective of investment, the targets related to transformation and structural adjustment are worthy of attention, such as education, sports, old-age care, large consumption, new energy vehicles, media, internet, medical care and so on.
Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund pointed out that it is necessary to pay close attention to whether the market style will start the "28-to-28 conversion", and it is suggested to appropriately reduce the theme stocks that were over-hyped in the previous period but whose future performance is difficult to support the current high valuation. In the short term, we need to pay attention to the impact of new market funds, interest rate increase in the US dollar, position adjustment in Public Offering of Fund at the end of the year, and exchange rate fluctuation after RMB's entry into SDR. In the medium term, we need to focus on the impact of IPO and registration policies on market expectations.
In the investment of mixed stock funds, Shikai Financial Products Research Center believes that medium and long-term investment opportunities are gestating, but short-term risks are still accumulating, and caution is still recommended in operation. Investors are advised to control their positions and balance growth and value. First of all, it emphasizes lightening positions, waiting for the uncertain factors such as the Fed's interest rate hike to settle, and paying attention to market fluctuations. If the market falls sharply and the margin of safety rises, you can intervene in batches. In the specific investment direction, we can pay attention to style conversion and add value style funds, such as banks, brokers, electricity reform and other funds, on the basis of long-term core growth style funds. At the same time, the current market theme is active, and chasing high is risky. It is suggested to participate in some topics with growth or policy support, such as environmental protection, high-end manufacturing, new energy, state-owned enterprise reform and so on.
In addition, in the investment of fixed-income funds, the impact of funds in the bond market has slowed down in the short term, but the risk of capital outflow caused by the expected increase in interest rate of the US dollar is still there, and the upward pressure on the bond market is considerable. It is expected that the bond market will still be dominated by shock consolidation, and investors are advised to reduce the proportion of debt-based allocation. Pure debt products with high interest rate bonds can be appropriately allocated. After the stock market is determined, the primary debt base and secondary debt base that can hold equity positions can be appropriately allocated. The differentiation trend of credit bonds is obvious, so it is suggested to avoid the debt base with high allocation of medium and low rating credit bonds.