In 222, the domestic capital market declined, and the valuations of many industries were at historical lows. The new year has a new atmosphere, and the transaction officially set sail in 223. Many institutions expect that the market will be reversed in a high probability this year. In addition, from the perspective of the last 1 years, the first trading day of the new year is also more ups and downs, which is worth looking forward to.

// A list of major events during holidays //

1. The Monetary Policy Committee of the central bank held a regular meeting in the fourth quarter of 222, pointing out that it is necessary to make good use of policy-oriented development financial instruments and focus on supporting and promoting infrastructure construction. Meet the reasonable financing needs of the real estate industry, promote industry restructuring and mergers and acquisitions, improve the assets and liabilities of high-quality head housing enterprises, and support rigid and improved housing demand due to urban policies. Guide the standardized and healthy development of financial business of platform enterprises, and improve the normal supervision level of financial activities of platform enterprises. Intensify macro-policy control and vigorously boost market confidence.

2. Pan Gongsheng, director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said that in 223, foreign exchange management policies conducive to the smooth operation of the economy will be actively implemented. Adhere to the problem orientation, implement a higher level of streamline administration, delegate power, strengthen regulation and improve services reform, trade and investment facilitation, foreign exchange market access and national treatment, stabilize expectations, stabilize the market, stabilize confidence, maximize market activities and release potential, and promote stable scale and excellent structure of foreign trade and stable expansion of foreign capital.

3. Zhao Chenxin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that in 223, China's economic development has a good foundation and more favorable conditions, and it is confident, qualified and capable of promoting the overall improvement of economic operation, achieving effective improvement in quality and reasonable growth in quantity. It is necessary to give priority to restoring and expanding consumption, and take measures to promote residents to want to spend, dare to spend and be able to spend.

4. The draft financial stability law is open for comments, and the deadline is January 28th, 223. The draft Financial Stability Law clearly states that the goal of maintaining financial stability is to ensure the continuity of basic functions and services of financial institutions, financial markets and financial infrastructure, continuously improve the ability of the financial system to resist risks and serve the real economy, curb the formation and expansion of financial risks, and guard against systemic financial risks.

5. China Foreign Exchange Trading Center announced that the currency basket weights of CFETS RMB exchange rate index and SDR RMB exchange rate index will be adjusted, and the new index will take effect on January 1, 223. In the new CFETS currency basket, the weights of major currencies such as the US dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen and the British pound have all been lowered, and the weights of most emerging economies have been raised accordingly. In addition, the central bank and the foreign exchange bureau decided to extend the trading hours of RMB foreign exchange market between banks to 3: the next day Beijing time from January 3, 223.

6. AARON Li, deputy general manager of Shenzhen Stock Exchange, said that there may be three major trends in the A-share M&A market: in the short term, market trends and investment withdrawal demand will further stimulate M&A motivation; In the medium and long term, the merger and reorganization of listed companies will continue the role of the main channel; In the future, the M&A market will be more in line with the characteristics of China's capital market and realize multiple development of localization, internationalization and marketization.

// The first trading day of the New Year in recent 1 years //

Wind data shows that A shares performed well on the first trading day after New Year's Day in recent 1 years. Among them, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 6 times out of 1 times, while the Shenzhen Component Index was slightly weaker, and * * * rose 5 times. In terms of the fluctuation range, except for the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes, which fell sharply on the first trading day after New Year's Day in 216, the rest of the new year's first trading day basically fell slightly, but the increase rate was large, especially since 217, when the stock index rose on the first trading day, the increase rate exceeded 1% in most cases.

//Officially set sail in 223//

On January 2, CITIC Securities pointed out that 223 was a "turning point" for A-shares. The strategic allocation period and the tactical entry period in January were superimposed. After the national epidemic "peaked", the key long-term window will be opened, and it is suggested to increase the position, and the allocation will shift from the balanced allocation in December to the partial growth style.

first of all, the national epidemic peak in January may be earlier than expected, and there is a lot of room for repair after the fundamentals are expected to usher in the inflection point. Based on the fundamentals and policy trends, January is an important strategic allocation period for A shares in 223.

Secondly, the market turnover and valuation closed at the end of 222 are obviously low. The entry of foreign capital in this year is expected to break the dilemma of stock game, and the pricing power of institutions will be significantly enhanced. Combined with the analysis of market valuation and trading behavior, A shares will usher in a key entry point at the tactical trading level in January.

Thirdly, the strategic allocation period and the tactical entry period overlap, and the observation adaptation period ends after the national epidemic "peaks". The annual key long-term window will open in January, and the A-share comprehensive repair market will switch from the first stage driven by policy expectations to the second stage driven by performance expectations.

According to the analysis of Chen Guo and Xia Fanjie of China CITIC Construction Investment Co., Ltd., at present, the real estate financing policy is gradually liberalized, the epidemic prevention and control measures are constantly optimized, and the domestic demand boosting policy is imminent. On the whole, the fundamental pressure still exists in the short term, but the long-term improvement is highly certain. At that time, once confidence is restored, residents' balance sheets will be repaired, and the excess savings accumulated under the promotion of risk appetite will flow to the stock market.

It is expected that the worries about funds will be gradually alleviated in 223, and it is expected to turn into an incremental game. At the same time, considering that the valuation level determines the rebound height, A shares are currently in a historically low valuation area and have the advantage of valuation. Under the dual effects of valuation factors and liquidity factors, A shares will perform better overall in 223.

southern fund: A shares open a new chapter in the turning year. In the latest strategy report for 223 released by southern fund recently, southern fund strategically looks at the stock market for asset allocation in 223.

first of all, the market: the market valuation is low. The current valuation level of A shares is lower than the historical average, and the investment cost performance is high. From the perspective of industry, the current valuation of a large number of industries is at a low level. Including banks, non-banks, real estate, construction, etc.

secondly, the supply side: enterprises have strong profitability. The downward cycle of this round of profit is coming to an end. Southern fund's Macro Strategy Department said that manufacturing industry is the cornerstone of the economy, with A-share manufacturing companies accounting for 66% and market value accounting for 56%. Although the manufacturing industry is in the downturn stage, the ROE of the industry remains at around 7.6%, which is at a historical high level, indicating that the overall texture of the manufacturing industry is stronger than other bottom stages in history.

third, the demand side: consumption is expected to stabilize and pick up. In 222, due to the multi-point distribution of domestic epidemics, the consumption scene was limited. In 223, the epidemic prevention and control will be more accurate, and the consumption promotion policy will be superimposed. The trend of consumption recovery is expected to continue to consolidate, laying the foundation for economic recovery.

for the investment strategy in 223, we should look at more strategies and actively do more. Under the pressure of external demand, steady growth mainly depends on domestic demand, and the domestic demand sector is expected to show a double-click of valuation and performance, focusing on consumption and real estate chain. The domestic macro-economy will be significantly restored, fiscal and monetary policies will remain active, and domestic demand sectors such as real estate chain and daily consumption are expected to be greatly improved. As the economic fundamentals gradually step out of the improvement trend, the market valuation will start to rebound from the bottom.