The longer the holding time, the higher the success rate of investment.
Taking the partial-share hybrid fund index as an example, we have backtested the data of nearly 15 years since 2005, and counted the proportion of positive returns from buying the index at any time:
Ratio of holding time to positive return
(Take the partial stock hybrid fund index as an example, the statistical interval is 2005/11-2020/118).
The data shows that the longer investors hold it, the higher the winning rate of fund investment. If you insist on holding it for 8 years or more, the positive income ratio will reach 100%.
Since it is verified that the winning rate of long-term investment is higher, how long does it mean to hold it for a long time?
Data calculation: it is best to hold it for about 5 years!
Xiaoou still takes the partial stock hybrid fund index as an example, and counts the proportion of annualized income above 10% and the holding time of the fund. It is found that the proportion of annualized income above 10% does not increase, but fluctuates.
The ratio of holding time to annualized rate of return exceeds 10%
(2005/ 1/ 1-2020/ 1 1/ 18)
Statistics show that the proportion of holding the annualized rate of return for half a year to two years exceeds 10% is relatively low; However, if it is held for 4-6 years, the probability of annualized rate of return exceeding 10% is the highest, up to 67%; If you extend the holding time and insist on holding it for 7- 10 years, you will find that this probability has dropped again, which is similar to the short-term holding probability.
It can be seen that it is a crucial time to insist on holding partial stock funds for 4-6 years on average. If the current income reaches the investment expectation, then you can consider selling the profit and putting it into the bag in time.
In fact, such a holding time is relatively easy to understand. A shares have a certain fluctuation cycle. Judging from past data, A shares usually go through a bull-bear cycle of 5-6 years. (Source: Haitong Securities, statistical interval:1990/1-2020/9/2) Funds held for 4 to 6 years are more in line with the bull-bear cycle of A shares, so the probability of annualized rate of return exceeding 10% is relatively high.
However, holding it for 4-6 years sounds easy, but it is also a great test for investors. On the one hand, it is difficult for investors to have the patience to hold a fund for about 5 years; On the other hand, is the fund we choose worth holding for five years?
What kind of fund is worth holding for 5 years?
Xiao Ou feels that there are at least three key points:
First, fund managers work long hours, especially those who have experienced the bull-bear cycle. They are relatively more senior and more experienced in the face of market withdrawal;
Second, the size of the fund should not be too small. Hold it for about 5 years, and the time is not short. Choose a fund with a moderate scale to avoid the risk of fund liquidation;
Third, the past performance of the fund is above average. For example, in every fiscal year, or nearly 1, 2, 3, and 5 years, the returns of all dimensions exceeded the level of the market index and similar funds in the same period.
Finally, to sum up, in order to improve the income experience of fund investment, "long-term investment" is not empty talk, but the longer it is held, the better the yield. According to the above statistics, it is relatively appropriate to hold the fund for about 5 years. But for ordinary investors, more importantly, choosing excellent funds and fund managers will help us to be a patient long-term investor.