Recently, the German Deputy Chancellor publicly admitted that the German business model had failed. On August 15 local time, Robert Chabek, German Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Climate Protection, stressed: "Germany's business model mainly relies on cheap Russian natural gas, but now this model has failed and will not come back."
After listening to this, I gasped and couldn't help but sigh that there is no Merkel in the world. The triangular business model of China, Russia and Germany established by Chancellor Merkel was defeated by a group of losers in such a short time.
In the past, Germany relied on powerful advanced manufacturing capabilities to import raw materials such as cheap energy from Russia, and then used the good business cooperation relationship between China and Germany to sell a large number of high value-added goods to the huge China market, which was beneficial to the layout of Germany. Chancellor Merkel and his predecessor worked hard for many years. But the United States started a war in Europe and then used the media to publicize it. Now politicians in Germany and Europe are not only shouting slogans to win votes to cater to voters, but also for real national interests.
As a land power, Germany is headed by sea power countries such as Britain and the United States. Sooner or later, Germany will face the heavy reality that its national interests are damaged, which has nothing to do with whether European leaders like it or not. If you don't face the reality now, it will face you sooner or later. This is the basic law. With the coming of the winter in Europe, we see that German economic data continue to pierce the record high! Germany's PPI reached 37.2% in July, and the official lamented that the prospects were bleak.
The governor of the German central bank also said that energy prices have soared and inflation may hit a new high in 70 years. The American media even believe that Europe has become the "third world" among western economies because of sanctions against Russia. This is a tragic word. So where will Germany go and where will Europe go?
First, let's look at the fundamentals of the German economy with you. On August 20th, the governor of the German central bank revealed in an interview with German media that the tightening of Russian natural gas supply has led to the soaring energy prices, which will push the German inflation rate to exceed 10% and even remain at a high level next year.
This means that the inflation rate in Germany will reach the highest level in the past 70 years, and the price increase of natural gas and electricity will exceed expectations. We must know that these are the basic production factors of the people's livelihood industry, and their influence is all-round. The governor of the German central bank also pointed out that with the deepening of the energy crisis, Germany may have an economic recession next winter.
Germany's economy stagnated in the second quarter, and its performance was weak among the major countries in the euro zone. In July this year, the International Monetary Fund lowered Germany's economic growth forecast in 2023 by 1.9 percentage points to 0.8%, which is also the largest reduction among all countries. So since we can all see this situation, can't the political and economic elites in Germany and Europe see it? In fact, there are voices of reflection, but the leaders of Germany and Europe seem to care more about their short-term political interests.
The German media recently issued a soul torture and imposed sanctions on Russia. Hurt who? Germany's "Economic Weekly" website recently issued a document stating that Russia is more resilient than people think; However, in Europe, soaring energy prices have hindered economic growth and stimulated inflation. At the same time, the western criticism of the sanctions policy is growing.
The article believes that Russia is more resilient than people think; On the contrary, in Europe, soaring energy prices hindered economic growth and stimulated inflation. Western criticism of the sanctions policy is growing. The most thought-provoking question now is, can sanctions make Russia face major problems? Do western economic retaliatory measures hurt themselves more than the Kremlin? Borell, the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, found that there were more and more suspicions within Europe.
Germany and Europe not only stumbled on the issue of sanctions against Russia, but also made another self-destructive move under the smear of the US and Western media, pointing fingers at the normal trade activities between China and Europe. It is not difficult to predict that Europe is making another important strategic mistake, that is, screwing up its trade relations with China, because it is not good for Europe and Germany at all.
The research report of German think tank says frankly: If Germany decouples from China, it will suffer heavy losses. A research report commissioned by the Bavarian Chamber of Commerce in Germany released on August 8 shows that if a trade war breaks out between Germany and China, Germany's losses will be six times that of Britain's withdrawal from the EU, and the automobile industry will bear the brunt.
The German newspaper Sü ddeutsche Zeitung cannot help asking, Is Germany ready for globalization? The article said that Russia, China and Gulf countries-some people demanded to reduce trade with these countries. However, Germany's export-oriented economy simply can't do this. This is the conclusion reached by the researchers of IFO Economic Research Institute in Germany.
Because of this, political leaders in Germany and Europe now seem to be caught in the dilemma of inaction, so more and more people are beginning to miss the rationality and pragmatism of Chancellor Merkel's era.
It must be noted that if the economies of Germany and France, as the locomotives of the EU, have problems, then the whole EU may have problems. After decades of prosperity and development after World War II, Europe may usher in a new historical turning point. Merkel will definitely not return, but only history knows whether Europe can stage the return of the king.