In March, China will enter the "two sessions". 221 is the 1th anniversary of the founding of the Party and the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan. What issues are worthy of attention in this year's National People's Congress around the medium and long-term economic development of China?

On February 25th, Guanghua School of Management of Peking University and Institute of Economic Policy of Peking University jointly held the "Analysis Meeting on Economic Situation and Policy Outlook before the Two Sessions". Eight Guanghua scholars were invited to share the theme.

The following is a summary of views:

Liu Qiao: the key task during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period

Liu Qiao, Dean of Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, is a professor of finance. Distinguished professor, a Changjiang scholar of the Ministry of Education, is an outstanding young winner of the National Natural Science Foundation.

Liu Qiao pointed out that there are the following key tasks during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period: First, increase the growth rate of total factor productivity; The second is to establish a strong domestic market and give play to the basic role of consumption; The third is to increase the proportion of residents' income and eliminate the dual structure of urban and rural areas; Fourth, China is moving upstream in the global value chain; Fifth, enhance the intensity of R&D and increase the proportion of basic scientific R&D; Sixth, promote market-oriented reform and improve the efficiency of optimal allocation of resources; Seventh, start to optimize and reshape the energy structure and industrial structure around the time points of "peak carbon dioxide emissions" and "carbon neutrality".

Liu Qiao emphasized that the future growth momentum should be inclined to "improve total factor productivity", and re-industrialization, new infrastructure, big country industry, and a higher level of reform and opening up will become the focus. In addition, when it comes to the next development blueprint, we should pay attention to a statement, that is, to play the "basic" role of consumption. Increasing residents' income is the key to increasing consumption, and eliminating the dual structure between urban and rural areas is the key to increasing residents' income.

color: macroeconomic and policy trends in 221

color, associate professor of Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, and deputy director of Institute of Economic Policy, Peking University. He has presided over and participated in the research projects of the Central Leading Group for Finance and Economics, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Health and other national ministries and commissions, and won instructions from national leaders and commendation from relevant ministries and commissions.

Professor Color said that the sustainability of exports in 221 depends on the overseas epidemic situation, which may show a trend of high before and then low, and the economic growth rate will drop quarter by quarter, and the annual growth rate is still expected to exceed 8%. The GDP growth target is still important at present, and the economic growth target should be balanced to avoid ups and downs in the next few years.

in p>221, the emergency policy should be gradually withdrawn, and the countercyclical adjustment policy should not be withdrawn in a hurry. The macroeconomic policy in the post-epidemic era needs to strengthen precision drip irrigation, improve quality and efficiency, and better serve the national strategy and the national economy and people's livelihood. In the post-epidemic era, emergency fiscal policies such as special national debt, tax and social security benefits should gradually return to normalization, and counter-cyclical fiscal policies should be adjusted steadily and gradually, and special debts can play a greater role. At the same time, monetary policy should gradually realize a normal turn, avoid a sharp turn in policy, pay more attention to broad inflation, and prevent bubbles.

Zhou Li' an: high-standard market system and factor marketization

Zhou Li' an, vice president of Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, professor and doctoral supervisor of the Department of Applied Economics, director of undergraduate/postgraduate programs, director of Peking University Institute of Business Administration, and distinguished professor, a Changjiang scholar of the Ministry of Education.

Professor Zhou Li 'an analyzed that at the end of January this year, the Central Office and the State Council issued the Action Plan for Building a High-standard Market System, which further reflected China's coping strategies and ideas based on finding growth momentum from within and deeply tapping the reform dividend. The new development pattern will be based on the dual deepening of market-oriented reform: the deep expansion from commodity market to factor market; Horizontal integration from domestic market to international market.

how to concretely implement the action plan? Looking at the reform process of China in the past 4 years, it is relatively easy to achieve the goal of any reform that incites local competition. We can consider some reform items suitable for local governments to take the initiative as performance indicators to assess local officials, or rank the reform performance, which will give both incentives and pressures; Encourage local governments to innovate, allow them to try first, and those who innovate first will benefit first, while giving local officials room for fault tolerance; First, focus on a few key reform areas, take the lead in breaking through, and gradually advance from point to area.

Xu Xianping: Policy considerations on the great cycle and new urbanization in China

Xu Xianping, counselor of the State Council Counselor's Office, distinguished professor of Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, former deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission; Doctor of Management Engineering, Hunan University, visiting scholar at Kennedy School, Harvard University; Deputies to the Ninth, Tenth and Eleventh National People's Congress, and members of the 12th Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference.

Professor Xu Xianping pointed out that the low consumption rate of residents is the blocking point to smooth the domestic big cycle, and the new urbanization is the basic point to smooth the domestic big cycle, and the new urbanization with people as the core is the biggest domestic demand. At present, there are 135 million migrant workers in cities, and 52 million migrant workers have lived in the same town for more than 1 years. It is suggested that the urbanization of agricultural transfer population should be accelerated by "increment of stock belt" Urbanization is the only way to modernization, and China's urbanization is still in the stage of accelerated development. At present, the annual income of migrant workers has exceeded that of urban residents, which is about three times that of rural residents, and they are potential targets for expanding middle-income groups. Therefore, only by reducing the number of peasants can the peasants become rich, and the rich peasants can expand their domestic demand.

Facing the core needs of migrant workers, Professor Xu Xianping put forward three major policy measures: one is to vigorously strengthen the construction of affordable rental housing; The second measure is to comprehensively protect the education of the children who move with them; The third measure is to accelerate the equalization of basic public services, which is also the core of the urbanization of agricultural transfer population and the reform of household registration system.

Tang Yao: Challenges and opportunities for industrial and regional economic development from the promise of "peak carbon dioxide emissions"

Tang Yao is an associate professor in the Department of Applied Economics, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University. From 29 to 217, he taught at Bowdoin College in the United States and obtained tenure. His main research interests are macroeconomics, international economics and corporate strategy of China.

it is emphasized in the 14th Five-Year Plan that China will achieve "peak carbon dioxide emissions" in 23 and "carbon neutrality" in 26. Professor Tang Yao believes that this goal is feasible, and it is necessary to reduce carbon emissions and build carbon capture capacity in the future.

from the perspective of industry, coal in fossil energy production should reach its peak first; Accelerate the development of renewable non-nuclear and non-fossil energy; Improve energy efficiency; Industry should develop upstream of industrial chain and value chain; Accelerate the development of service industry. From a regional perspective, energy production is concentrated in advantageous areas; Adjust the energy production structure of traditional energy provinces; Energy production capacity in areas lacking advantages in technology and cost should be accelerated.

specifically, it is necessary to comprehensively use market and policy means. On the one hand, it is necessary to speed up the construction of carbon emissions trading market and reasonably price carbon emissions. On the other hand, we will adjust the energy structure, industrial structure and energy efficiency through policies, arrange financial funds to support green development-related projects, study the tax system related to carbon emission reduction, guide funds to flow to green development areas, and develop green financial products.

Zhang Zheng: capital market reform from the performance of A-share market

Zhang Zheng, finance professor, vice president, doctoral supervisor of Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, deputy director of Peking University National Financial Research Center, and executive director of China REITs Research Center of Guanghua School of Management, Peking University. Professor Zhang Zheng's main research areas are financial markets and institutions, real estate finance and asset management.

Professor Zhang Zheng summarized the achievements and shortcomings of the A-share market from six aspects: the A-share market has developed rapidly in the past 3 years, but the relative scale is not high, and there is still huge room for development in the future; The proportion of capital gains in the return on investment of A shares is too high, and there is a lack of equity investment products with a high proportion of dividends; Judging from the price discovery function, A shares still have many shortcomings; The overall quality of listed companies is not high, and the market has not formed an effective elimination mechanism; Personal short-term investment and irrational trading behavior erode investment income, and A shares lack long-term funds; We should rationally treat the pilot of A-share registration system as showing the characteristics of high first-day increase, high average price-earnings ratio and high turnover rate, and the market evolution needs a process.

in view of the key points of the next stage of reform, he believes that, first of all, we should adhere to the pilot registration system and improve the normalized and multi-channel delisting system; Second, further improve the quality of listed companies; Third, promote the pilot project of infrastructure public offering REITs to form a demonstration effect. Fourth, promote the reform of the investment side of the capital market and the implementation of the personal pension account policy, and optimize the medium and long-term capital market environment.

Zhang Qinghua: Urban Agglomeration, Coordinated Urban Development and Per Capita Welfare

Zhang Qinghua, Professor and Doctoral Supervisor, Department of Applied Economics, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University. Her main research interests include urban economics, public finance, search and matching, and applied econometrics.

Professor Zhang Qinghua said that according to the theory of urban economics, under given conditions, the per capita welfare first increases and then decreases with the increase of the total population of the city, that is, the inverted U-shaped relationship. Therefore, each city has an optimal scale.

however, in 21, the population size of about 88% prefecture-level cities was less than 4% of the optimal size. Underpopulation in most cities and overpopulation in a few cities have caused great welfare losses. More than half of the cities lost more than 3% of their welfare, and 22% lost more than 44%.

High-quality urbanization urgently needs to form an urban system with reasonable scale. The coordinated development of urban agglomerations and cities is expected to become a breakthrough. In order to give full play to the synergy of urban agglomerations, first, we should improve the factor market and improve the allocation efficiency of factors in urban agglomerations; Second, we should rationally arrange and coordinate the industrial development within the urban agglomeration and optimize the industrial structure; Third, we should optimize the internal spatial structure of megacities in urban agglomerations.

Chen Yuyu: Two Challenges to China's Long-term Economic Growth

Chen Yuyu is a professor in the Department of Applied Economics, Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, and director of the Institute of Economic Policy, Peking University. In 214, he won the Outstanding Youth Award of the National Natural Science Foundation and was selected as the Changjiang Scholar distinguished professor of the Ministry of Education in 216.

Professor Chen Yuyu believes that in the next fifteen years, China's long-term economic growth will face two major challenges: unequal income distribution and aging population.

in the past 3-4 years, the global income gap has been widening. This widening gap is reflected in three aspects. First, the income gap between countries is widening (excluding the China factor); Second, the income gap between different groups in most countries is expanding rapidly; Third, the income gap between different income groups is uneven, especially between high-income groups and the public.

in addition, we are faced with the challenge of solving the problem of providing for the aged with a huge population. The 65-year-old people account for the proportion of the population aged 15 to 65, which is called the "dependency ratio". At present, this ratio is 18%, and it will reach 25% by 235, which means that four working people need to support one elderly person.

how to deal with two major challenges? First, reform the income distribution system and design policies that give consideration to efficiency and fairness; Second, give full play to the power of state-owned assets and adjust the income distribution structure; Third, promote the equalization of education and reasonably evaluate the impact of fiscal expenditure on income distribution.