That is, after the share reform, the non-tradable shares accounted for a relatively large proportion before the share reform. If the restricted shares account for more than 5% of the total share capital, the shares can only be circulated after more than two years of reform.
Xiao Fei:
That is, after the share reform, the proportion of non-tradable shares before the share reform is small. Restricted shares account for less than 5% of the total share capital, and can not be circulated until one year after the share reform.
The proportion of shares and the sale period are not clearly determined, but a popular saying in the industry.
The listing and circulation of restricted shares will mean that a large number of shareholders may sell their shares, the strength of the empty side will increase, and the original shares may depreciate. Be careful at this time.
If the trading volume of the market can continue to enlarge, the market will have the opportunity to continue to challenge 3890 (it is a good thing in the short term after rapid shrinkage, and from the WVAD indicator, this indicator has broken down from the zero line of 1.28, and now it has sent a buying signal to mid-line investors for the first time. Although the index does not have to be completely believed, it can be used as one of the conditions for judgment. Stock trading needs to follow the trend. If the index continues to improve, it can be gradually increased from light warehouse to half warehouse, and there was a strong rebound when the index crossed the zero line last time), but if it continues to shrink rapidly, it is not optimistic. It is suggested to go out on rallies and avoid risks. On the last day before the festival, the market opened higher and walked higher, but the main force pulled the market obviously. Although the increase of individual stocks is relatively small and the market points are very close to 4.24, the differentiation of individual stocks is serious. I advise caution. Last Thursday, when the huge amount of crazy money brought by the reduction of stamp duty hit the stock market, I think the lightening behavior of the main institutions should slow down. Although I thought the organization would continue to ship, I didn't expect them to ship that day. However, there was a wave of huge money selling in the session, which greatly suppressed the stock index and overwhelmed the crazy pursuit of huge funds. I thought the size was different, but now the result is out. The latest statistics show that on that day, the two major institutions of funds and insurance significantly reduced their positions by as much as 31700 million, and the vast number of retail investors once again became the main force chasing high. However, if the main funds accumulated in the past few days still maintain a selling trend on the 24th, from the 24th to the present, the institutional lightening is estimated to be close to 50 billion, and these chips will once again fall into the hands of retail investors, and the main shipping situation will not stop, and the market outlook is still not optimistic. However, after HTC shares opened the down limit, Xiaofei shipped heavily. According to statistics, Pingyuan Industry and Yiduoyuan Real Estate reduced their holdings by 6.96 million shares and 75 1.36 million shares respectively, and all of them were cleared. In one day, the total sales ratio reached 2.8 1%, far exceeding the last stipulation that only 0.99% of the goods could be shipped in one month. However, the punishment measures of the SSE are indeed symbolic punishment, which has no influence on the small non-clearance. If this kind of illegal behavior cannot be properly handled, there will be few "followers" in the future, and a series of so-called favorable policies to limit the size of goods will become full of loopholes.
3300 is still a turning point for bulls and bears. Stimulated by the tax reduction policy, short-term funds went crazy. As long as the market outlook can hold the 30-year moving average, there is still a chance for the market to rise under the inertia of funds. However, if rallies fail, please pay attention to lightening positions on rallies to prevent the profit-taking of short-term funds and the comprehensive pressure of institutions selling chips and sizes again. Investors can choose the point of lightening their positions on rallies according to the strength of the rebound, and when the market rebound is weak, it is the time to go out.
The supply and demand of funds determines the operation law of the stock market. If the fund buys more, it will go up, and if it sells more, it will go down. In a trend, if you sell more money than you buy for a long time because of a big bad news, it will be a falling market for a long time.
On the 24th, the market soared, and most retail investors set their positions above 5,000 points. This 10% increase is not enough for these people to escape. Most deep-rooted retail investors will not choose to sell. Can the current turnover simply be considered that the institution has come in? One-sided understanding, now the game between old and new funds is very complicated, new funds are forced to open positions, and old funds are also withdrawing while playing, gradually spitting out chips to avoid the pressure of size and size. On the 24th, the market crashed. Those short-term retail investors and hot money who face the huge crazy funds brought by good news will definitely not be able to lower the market so much, and it is not excluded that it is caused by the reduction of the size (now the data comes out, which is caused by the sharp reduction of positions by 31700 million by the two main forces of funds and insurance). People who are used to reading my posts know that I don't like superficial articles very much, but I prefer to analyze the risks that most people don't want to admit, but I still want to say what I should say, which can be used as a reference for my friends and can be adopted or not. This policy does not rule out that there may be other policies in the future, but we should pay attention to short-term risks. The real reason for this plunge is the huge amount of non-lifting funds and huge additional issuance, not stamp duty. Non-lifting funds have far exceeded the affordability of the main funds, and the main funds can only choose to gradually reduce their positions, so the losses will be relatively small. Many people think that reducing stamp duty is extremely beneficial, enough to change the trajectory of the stock market and reverse the market, but this idea is a bit one-sided. The incremental funds brought by stamp duty to the market are 200 billion, and the amount of funds to be cashed this year is nearly 3 trillion, which is equivalent to the size of the main funds in the whole market, and this is just the beginning. In 2009,065,438+00, the amount of non-lifted funds will enter the circulation market many times, and the size is the fundamental issue. Most importantly, it was originally intended to let the market digest the size, not the government to pay the bill. Even if the central government solves such a huge amount of money, it is hard for the central government to afford it!
Some experts suggest that the government can do four things to save the market.
First, the reduction of stamp duty has been achieved now, but some people have analyzed that the amount of 200 billion is not enough to support the scale of nearly 3 trillion.
Second, put the state-owned restricted shares under the social security fund, and let them insist on value investment and hold them for a long time (there is a problem, the number of owners of state-owned restricted shares is large and the amount of funds is huge. If the state formulates policies to force such shares to be transferred to the social security fund to prevent such shareholders from cashing out, how can the state solve the contradiction with these interest groups! If social security funds are allowed to buy such funds in the form of purchase, there will be a problem that money is far from enough)
Third, follow the example of the Hong Kong SAR Government in handling the Asian financial crisis and set up a stabilization fund (which needs money).
Fourth, follow the example of the Federal Reserve and directly inject capital into investment institutions such as securities companies to expand the market demand for stocks (money is still needed, and it is unrealistic for the state to save the stock market with fiscal revenue to maintain social stability)
Therefore, before the measures and policies to truly solve the problem of non-size are introduced, the main force will see clearly. If the substantive problems are not solved, it will still lead to the disintegration of the main funds under the gradual pressure of size and size. Now that the rescue policy has come out, we must follow suit in a short time. It is wise for the organization to pull the boat. Big money is also invested in the stock market to make money, not to be a long-term shareholder. Therefore, it is now suggested that stamp duty should be regarded as good news for the main organization. Before the substantive policy comes out, the main institutions will always be alert to the size of the market and dare not expand the market. The bigger it is, the worse the main fund will die.
During this period, the issuance of new shares in an incredibly crazy number has never stopped. The purpose of reducing stamp duty by the state is even more thought-provoking. It is not ruled out that while meeting the requirements of investors (the government has done enough face), the main funds are forced to do more to pick up the size at the current point, and a large number of new funds are also borrowed from the market (the wool is on the sheep, the government has nothing, or the money of retail investors). The market in a short time.
The previous bear market was caused by the reduction of state-owned shares. Due to the reduction of stamp duty during the bear market in June 5438+ 10, 2005, the main force shipped again after a certain increase, and the market once again oscillated to the bottom and hit a new low. The present situation is somewhat similar to that at that time, so you can refer to it carefully.
But in a weak state, a small negative news may be magnified several times because of panic. Please be alert to the retail friends who have been involved, and always pay attention to whether there is any bad news coming out again.
Now you should follow the trend, don't be a dead cow and a dead bear, just be a diaosi.
It is purely a personal opinion, please adopt it carefully. good luck