It will definitely rise for the following reasons: Since the beginning of this year, with the rise in global agricultural product prices, the price of food oil in the international market has also shown an upward trend.

Futures prices such as soybean oil and rapeseed have continued to hit new highs, and wholesale and retail prices have followed suit.

While many food oil exporting countries are sharing the dividends brought by rising prices, they are also facing hidden worries about inflation caused by high prices in their own markets.

1.

Prices in the international futures market remain high, reaching new highs in succession, and the recent price is at a historical high.

Since this year, internationally influential food products such as the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean futures, the Canadian Winnipeg Commodity Exchange (WCE) rapeseed futures, and the Malaysian Derivatives Exchange (BMD) crude palm oil futures have

The oil futures price index has seen a sharp upward trend.

Soybeans are the basic product of food oil and the most important futures product.

Rapeseed oil, palm oil, etc. are regarded as substitutes in the international market.

Therefore, here we take the CBOT soybean market as an example to illustrate the price trend.

From the opening of the market on January 3 to July 13, the opening was 700.7, the highest was 948.3, the lowest was 671.3, and the closing was 948.1, an increase of 257.6 (units are cents/bushel), an increase of 36.7%.

Its trend has gone through three stages.

The first stage is from the lowest point of the CBOT soybean index of 671.3 cents/bushel (1 bushel of soybeans = 27.100 kilograms) on January 10 to the highest point of 813.5 cents/bushel on February 22, with the maximum range of 142.2 US cents.

cents/bushel.

The main factor for speculation is a survey report released by the American Professional Farmers Organization (Pro Farmer), which shows that the soybean planting area in the new season in the United States may drop sharply by 8.6 to 9.4 million acres.

The second stage: Starting from the lowest point of 732.2 cents/bushel on April 24, the speculation has continued to the highest of 882.4 cents/bushel on June 18, with the highest range reaching 150.2 cents/bushel. The main impact of this stage is

The factor is weather.

Weather factors increased prices by more than 100 cents per bushel.

The third stage: speculation from the lowest point of 817.4 cents/bushel on June 22 to the highest point of 948.3 cents/bushel on July 13, with the maximum fluctuation of 130.9 cents/bushel.

Futures prices hit a three-year high.

This is mainly because on June 29, the United States Department of Agriculture released a report that surprised all market participants, namely: the soybean planting area in the United States in 2007 is expected to be 64.081 million acres, a significant reduction of 3.059 million acres from the March data.

This is below the consensus average forecast of 67.838 million acres (forecast range is 66-69 million acres).

On that day, CBOT soybean contracts once opened at their daily limit.

After the market's planned three-stage speculation of sowing area - weather conditions - sowing area, CBOT soybeans increased by nearly 260 cents per bushel.

It is worth noting that in the past, CBOT soybeans followed a cyclic pattern of rising - planting area increased - falling - planting area decreased - rising again, but now a new situation has emerged, which is rising - planting area reduced - rising again -

This is a vicious cycle of reducing the planting area.

In July, the US Department of Agriculture released a monthly supply and demand report, predicting global soybean production in 2007-2008 to reach 222.1 million tons, lower than the 225.3 million tons predicted in June and lower than the 236.1 million tons in 2006.

In fact, with the exception of Brazil, soybean production in several other major soybean-producing countries around the world has decreased to varying degrees. Among them, the soybean production in the United States has been lowered to 71.4 million tons (June forecast was 74.7 million tons, compared with 86.8 million tons in 2006).

Ton).

Argentina's soybean production is forecast to be 47 million tons (47.2 million tons in 2006-2007).

China's soybean production is expected to be 15.6 million tons, also lower than the 16.2 million tons in 2006-2007.

However, Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach 61 million tons, the same as the June estimate, and higher than the 59 million tons in 2006-2007.

From the demand side, global soybean consumption has been slightly lowered to 234.2 million tons (June forecast was 234.3 million tons and 225.2 million tons in 2006).

Global soybean exports are expected to be 75.5 million tons, the same as the June forecast, and 70.5 million tons in 2006. Argentina's soybean exports are expected to increase to 10.2 million tons (June forecast is 8.6 million tons, and 8 million tons in 2006). Brazil is expected to

29.7 million tons (29.7 million tons forecast in June and 24.6 million tons in 2006).

The United States is expected to be 27.8 million tons (29.4 million tons in June and 29.7 million tons in 2006).

This will also result in global soybean ending stocks falling to 51.87 million tons at the end of September 2008 (June forecast was 54 million tons, compared with 64.17 million tons in 2006).

Overall, the report confirms the market's recent concerns about tight global soybean supply next year, which also makes the market extremely sensitive to any factors that may lead to a reduction in soybean yields in the United States or a reduction in soybean acreage in South America.