The stock market has always been an opportunity in a crisis, and there may be risks in the opportunity. Optimists can always find opportunities, but at the same time, they should also identify risks so as to avoid them properly.
What do they think of the group stocks that have increased greatly in the past two years? How big is the bubble? Do you want to avoid it properly? Is there still a chance for Hong Kong stocks? 202 1 Is it difficult to make money? If there is an opportunity, where is it?
With these questions, we have consulted and collected the annual reports of seven outstanding fund managers, including harvest fund's master balance torrent, growth veteran Gui Kai and value model Tan Li, hoping to provide some reference for everyone.
Harvest Value Growth Fund-Seed
202 1 With the acceleration of global vaccination, the impact of the epidemic on the global economy is gradually weakening compared with 2020. Compared with the low base utility in 2020, the global economy is likely to enter the recovery stage of "post-epidemic period" in 20021year. Accordingly, the active monetary policy and fiscal policy to deal with the epidemic in 2020 will face the adjustment of returning to normal. Although the intensity and pace of adjustment are different, the direction is certain.
Looking forward to the 20021securities market, the certainty of profit growth of listed companies is improving, but the structural increase for two consecutive years has made the valuation of some industries enter historical highs, greatly increasing the potential volatility of the market and making investment more difficult. From the perspective of the relationship between corporate profit growth and economic recovery, there are opportunities for valuation repair in the middle and upper reaches of the 20021industrial chain and low-valuation cyclical industries related to the economic cycle, and the differentiation in the fields of consumption, medicine, science and technology and advanced manufacturing has intensified. The valuation system is subject to the marginal fluctuation of monetary policy, and it needs real high growth to resist the downward pressure of the valuation system.
Harvest and Growth-Gui Kai
Looking forward to 20021,we believe that the macro liquidity will remain stable in general and may be slightly tightened, but the overall economy, especially the profits of non-bank enterprises, will increase well. In this context, we judge that the overall market will still fluctuate, but the trend of individual stocks will continue to differentiate and the market pattern will become the norm.
In the medium and long term, we maintain strong confidence in the continuous transformation and upgrading of the domestic economy. This round of epidemic highlights the resilience and strong supply chain advantages of domestic enterprises and greatly enhances the competitiveness of many enterprises around the world. At the same time, we are also glad to see the continuous emergence and evolution of entrepreneurs with innovative consciousness and fighting spirit. They are the backbone to support the future performance of the capital market.
Specific to the sub-sectors, we will continue to be optimistic about the sub-sectors such as advanced manufacturing, Internet, enterprise software, automotive intelligence, medical equipment and services, and optional consumption. In the follow-up investment, the manager will continue to base on long-term steady investment and strive to achieve long-term excellent returns for investors!
Choice of Harvest Value-Tan Li
All allocation strategies are based on the understanding of economic cycle and market cycle. Today, we need to answer which stage of the economic cycle China economy will be in in 20021year. We believe that the sustainability of this round of recovery will exceed expectations, because the driving force is more sustainable, and we will see the sustained recovery of consumption, service and manufacturing investment, as well as the resilience of infrastructure investment and real estate investment. We will see the prices of upstream resources and midstream industrial products rise, and we will also see the prices of end consumer goods rise. Of course, we will eventually face the "inevitable cycle", and we will always remain in awe of the cycle. In the time dimension of one year or even longer, we believe that inflation expectations may lead to the rise of long-term interest rates and increase the volatility of financial markets, especially considering the substantial expansion of money in 2020. The core of 202 1 is whether low interest rates can be sustained.
In terms of industry configuration, it always maintains the characteristics of both offensive and defensive. Combined with the bottom-up stock selection and valuation level, we will still allocate less in the sectors of essential consumption, medical services and technology, and pay more attention to low-valued varieties, mainly in finance, real estate and public utilities, and pay more attention to low-valued small and medium-sized stocks than in 2020. We think there will be some lucrative opportunities, which of course need our efforts to find.
We believe that the growth of 202 1 profit will go hand in hand with the contraction of valuation. One day in the future, we will be rewarded for proper evacuation. We hope that we can continue to obtain certain absolute returns through high-quality stock selection in the case of high returns for two consecutive years in 20 19 and 2020, so that compound interest can continue.
Zhang Jintao-Jiashi Shanghai Port Depth Selection
Looking forward to 20021,the global economy will embark on the road of recovery, but the pace and intensity are still uncertain. The second wave of epidemic is still raging in the northern hemisphere, and the emergence of more infectious viruses around the world has increased the difficulty of fighting the epidemic. The good news is that a variety of vaccines have been put into use, which will be the best hope for world economic recovery.
The A-share market of 202 1 will be a race between performance growth and valuation contraction. As China's economy is the first to recover, the liquidity environment of 202 1 may not be as relaxed as that of 2020, which will exert some contraction pressure on market valuation. On the other hand, economic recovery will drive the profits of listed companies to grow rapidly, which will offset the pressure of shrinking valuation to some extent. The same is true for industries and individual stocks. If the performance growth can exceed the valuation contraction, then these industries and stocks will be expected to get positive returns; On the other hand, if the performance growth cannot exceed the valuation contraction, the stock price is at risk of falling. Generally speaking, due to the improvement of the performance of low-valued industries, it is more likely that 202 1 will get positive returns, while high-valued stocks need to be carefully selected.
202 1 We are optimistic about Hong Kong stocks for the following four reasons: 1, the overall valuation of Hong Kong stocks is at a low level, while the AH premium rate is at a historical high level; 2. The performance is expected to show rapid growth; 3. The liquidity environment is relatively favorable, the overseas epidemic situation has not been controlled, the economic recovery is later than that of Chinese mainland, and the liquidity is expected to remain loose; 4. The industrial structure of Hong Kong stocks has been optimized, and the proportion of Internet, consumer, technology and pharmaceutical companies with good long-term growth has increased. In the past few years, a large number of high-quality Internet, consumer, technology and pharmaceutical companies have listed on the China Stock Connect, which will obviously enrich the investable scope of the Hong Kong Stock Connect Fund, give full play to the advantage that the Hong Kong Stock Connect Fund can select the most potential stocks from A shares and Hong Kong stocks, and enable our fund holders to benefit from the future development of the Internet, technology, consumption and medical biology in.
Optimization of Harvest's Basic Industry —— Millet
Looking forward to 20021,the epidemic situation is still the most important clue affecting the global social and economic operation. Judging from the information currently available, the research and development of vaccines has been on the right track, and several successful model countries have appeared in the world except China, so under optimistic circumstances, the epidemic situation may be controlled globally in 20021year.
After the epidemic is controlled, the reasonable expectation is to restart global economic activities. For China, the relatively positive thing is that the overall demand will definitely increase, and the relatively negative thing is that the relative competitiveness of domestic products will be weakened compared with that during the epidemic. Secondly, it can be expected that travel demand will explode. Both business travel and personal travel to visit relatives around the world have been suppressed for a whole year. Judging from the situation during the eleventh period in 2020, a huge unmet demand has been accumulated. I'm not sure, but I can vaguely see that inflationary pressure will increase after demand restarts, and the world may face the possibility of policy tightening. An important structural change throughout the epidemic is the substitution of online economic activities for offline economic activities. From the perspective of efficiency, even if the epidemic situation is controlled, online consumption, online meetings, online consultation or online entertainment will still develop rapidly.
In this context, our relatively optimistic industries include the airport in the travel chain, the Internet platform as the source of online economic activities, the big financial sector with rising interest rates, and some commodities with resource attributes. It seems messy, but the common feature of these industries is cheap valuation (the Internet is relatively expensive in appearance, but the actual valuation is also in a relatively cheap position of 1/4 in the investable range of the whole market). Competitive high-quality companies that are quite different from competitors can greatly reduce the risk of substantial withdrawal, while the latter can ensure that long-term returns can be cashed.
Harvest Consumption Choice-Wuyue
After the opening of 202 1, the A-share market fluctuated greatly. We think this may be a preview of the whole year's market to some extent. Preventing risks, lowering expectations and looking for structural opportunities in the midst of fluctuations will be our key tasks this year:
A) Similar to 2020, the epidemic is still recurring. It can be seen that with the closure of Shijiazhuang in the second week of June 5438+ 10, the optional consumption represented by liquor once again fell sharply as in the first quarter of 2020. However, unlike last year, we believe that the gradual control of the epidemic, vaccination and economic recovery will be trend events. Like all previous public crises, mankind will surely win the final victory, and only optimists can win the final victory. Therefore, from a fundamental point of view, even if the epidemic situation recurs regionally, the quarterly and semi-annual performance/market sentiment adjustment completed last year is only expected to have a substantial negative impact on the economy in 20021year at the Zhou Du/monthly level. We still believe that the risk-return ratio of optional consumption in the first half of the year is better than that of compulsory consumption.
The above two paragraphs introduce the ideas of macro and strategic dimensions in 202 1. However, I am not good at top-down macro judgment and precise timing, and my personal methodology and energy distribution are more inclined to medium and micro perspectives. Therefore, under the market environment of 202 1 high volatility, low income expectation and homogenization of market behavior, the idea of portfolio management will follow the following points:
A) Risk prevention is the primary goal: objectively admit that there are also a large number of so-called three-high varieties (high valuation, high institutional positions and high prosperity) in Harvest's selected positions. Before the arrival of the black swan risk in the market, we didn't take an overall pessimistic view, but more responded by improving the structure, lightening some short-term fundamentals or targets with pressure on performance, focusing on targets with performance exceeding expectations, hoping to shrink the risk through performance exceeding expectations in the future.
B) Looking for clues as a secondary goal: In the context of optimistic about the long-term development of the equity market, lightening positions or allocating purely defensive sectors will face huge opportunity cost risks. Therefore, while maintaining a high position, we can only ensure that the portfolio returns span the cycle by continuously developing alpha sources. Probabilistic thinking+dynamic adjustment+in-depth study of individual stocks is still our methodology system.
C) As a consumer fund, the investment portfolio will still focus on the consumption track. I also believe that consumption is the scarcest and best asset in China A-shares and even in the world, which is my long-standing belief.
202 1 will be a challenging year. On June 5438+0, we have seen the rapid rotation of various industries and styles, but the key decision-making window has not yet arrived. As a young fund manager, the biggest test this year will be how to learn to get along with yourself, stick to your beliefs, and let the investment system not go with the flow. I hope to create absolute income and relative income for investors who trust Harvest's consumer selection all the year round, and I also hope to accompany them who love consumer investment.
2020, don't think about the past, 202 1 year, don't be afraid of the future!
Jiashi Smart Car-Yao Zhipeng
In the fourth quarter, the domestic economy continued to recover, and although the domestic epidemic situation occasionally recurred in some cities, it was quickly controlled. The data of real estate and automobile industries continued to improve, and the whole economy continued to recover. Overseas, with the end of production and production suspension in the second quarter, stimulated by loose monetary liquidity and active fiscal policy, demand rebounded significantly, and the overseas economy as a whole continued to show a relatively strong rebound trend. China's export-related data improved significantly and remained at a high level. With the gradual maturity of vaccines around the world, people's fear of the epidemic has gradually weakened. The overall business travel and other industries are in the process of sustained recovery. In this round of recovery, China's overall macro leverage ratio has been well controlled, and at the same time, it has not adopted excessive fiscal policies. Under the background of global demand, the overall recovery is healthy.
The overall economic recovery of pro-cyclical industries is obvious. As one of the highlights of economic recovery in Europe and China, new energy vehicles have particularly bright data. Europe still maintained strong growth in the fourth quarter when the epidemic resurfaced, while China also resumed high growth in the third quarter and continued to exceed expectations in the fourth quarter. We are undoubtedly at the beginning of a new global smart car industry cycle, and the outbreak of new demand in the future may exceed market expectations. In particular, some leading enterprises are constantly improving and polishing their products, which not only leads to technological changes, but also becomes the creators of demand.
In the medium and long term of 5- 10, China enterprises have the scarcest stable growth in the world, especially advanced manufacturing enterprises with global competitiveness. The upgrading of social wealth to equity assets is also a long-term trend. We are very optimistic about the medium and long-term market performance, which is also an important manifestation of China's national games. Judging from the trend in the short to medium term 1-3 years, after the full rise of the market and the expansion of valuation in the past two years, the consideration of balanced allocation and valuation cost performance needs to be more focused. As the most relaxed moment of liquidity has passed, there is pressure on long-term assets as a whole, which has been reflected in the second half of 2020. However, long-term assets, such as new energy vehicles and military industry, which have an upward trend beyond expectations and have a large long-term space, are still very bright in the second half and fourth quarter, and they are also our key areas and directions.
Combining the ROE-DCF tools of our methodology and the judgment of industrial development, we will continue to be optimistic about the reform opportunities under the trend of electrification and intelligence of automobiles, as well as pioneer listed companies with long-term industrial trends, such as new energy vehicles, auto parts and computers.
Finally, we are in a great era of technological change and intergenerational change in consumption. Only the awe of the objective world and the perception of social changes are the important paths for us to overcome changes and seize opportunities. We will continue to explore those pioneering enterprises that can lead the social trend and invest in the future we want. And companionship is the best gift for everyone to invest and grow.
Fund investment needs to be cautious. Investors should read the fund contract, prospectus, product information summary and other legal documents, understand the risk-return characteristics of the fund, especially the unique risks, and judge whether it is suitable for their own risk tolerance according to their own investment purpose, investment experience and asset status. The fund manager promises to manage and use the fund assets in good faith and prudence, but does not guarantee that the fund will be profitable or the principal will not be lost. Past performance cannot predict its future performance, and the performance of other funds does not constitute a guarantee for the performance of the Fund.