A shares have come to an end in the first half of the year. Last week was a week of huge fluctuations in the pharmaceutical sector, with a strong rise in the first four days and a huge decline in the last day. Then, is the continuous correction of the pharmaceutical sector an opportunity or a risk for investors?
In this regard, Guo Sheng Securities said that the reason for last Friday's sharp drop was not the huge change in the fundamentals of medicine, but the heavy market game sentiment. The market performance on Thursday was average, which directly caused systemic pressure on Friday and collective adjustment of the growth sector. As a growth sector with a large increase in the previous period, medicine is naturally under great pressure.
In addition, from the data point of view, the pharmaceutical sector has been closely watched by funds. Among them, leveraged funds "love" medicine.
WIND data shows that a number of pharmaceutical stocks were included in the margin financing and securities lending target in the first half of the year, including Kangtuo Medical, Kangtai Bio, Nuotai Bio, Beida Pharmaceutical, Yingke Medical and Puli Pharmaceutical.
Guo Sheng Securities pointed out that in the past few years, if the medical investment in the past 3-4 years paid more attention to "choosing the main rail head company and enjoying the expansion of valuation", then this year we should pay more attention to "the cost performance of the main rail target". Although they are all structural opportunities, they are expressed in different ways. Based on the judgment of the macro environment this year, we are optimistic about the relative advantages of medicine this year. Both core and non-core have opportunities, but the structural strength is different. Considering the liquidity spillover effect of core assets, we should pay attention to small and medium-sized market value this year.
According to the report of Shanghai Stock Exchange, Liu Hui, senior fund manager of Jing Shun Investment, also said, "The valuation premium of the A-share pharmaceutical sector will continue to exist, and we are very optimistic about the long-term growth prospects of the health care industry in China, and will continue to maintain high growth in the next five years to 10. Judging from the recently released results of listed companies in the first quarter of 2020 and 20021,the growth rate of many leading enterprises has reached 40% to 70%. "
For the optimistic investment direction in the future, Liu Hui said that it will be laid out around four main lines:
First, we are optimistic about the field of medical devices. Domestic manufacturers have more than 50% market share in many fields, and scientific and technological progress and unsatisfied demand are the core driving forces. Although the price reduction of consumables such as stents has a certain negative impact on some areas, the overall impact is not great.
Secondly, we are optimistic about contract R&D organization (CRO)/ contract R&D and production organization (CDMO). "Drug reform promotes domestic pharmaceutical companies to increase investment in research and development. At the same time, a large number of college graduates with chemical and biological backgrounds and a large number of clinical trial patients are the key cost advantages for China CRO/CDMO enterprises to attract global pharmaceutical companies to outsource R&D.. The domestic pharmaceutical industry needs to upgrade its products through huge R&D investment, which brings historical opportunities to the CRO and CDMO industries. "
Third, we are optimistic about the medical service industry. The rising income level of China residents has improved people's ability to pay for better medical services.
Fourthly, we are optimistic about innovative drug manufacturers in China. China enterprises have a strong cost and scale advantage in clinical trials, and biotechnology companies are also investing huge sums of money in research and development of new drugs. It is expected that China will develop more and more new biotechnological drugs.
In terms of configuration ideas, Guo Sheng Securities said that the second half of the year will follow the idea of "small before big": First, "small before": (1) services: Samsung Medical, International Medicine, Yingkang Life Insurance; (2) Vaccine industry chain: Dongfulong, zhifei Bio, Kangxinuo, Wan Tai Bio and Kangtai Bio; (3)CXO: Boteng and Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical; (4) Brand Chinese medicine: Taiji Group; (5) Ophthalmology: Qi Xing Ophthalmology, Haohai Ke Sheng; (6) Innovative single products: cutting-edge biology and Nanxin Pharmaceutical; (7) Internationalization of injections: Jianyou and Puli Pharmaceutical.