So, how can we get a better "basic" experience in the face of market fluctuations?
Fluctuations are common in military strategists. From a historical point of view, if you want to reach a distant place, you must first experience storms. For equity investment, enduring volatility is a process that must be experienced on the road to long-term return. Even a high-quality asset like Public Offering of Fund is bound to stumble. In the past fifteen years, the annualized income of the common stock fund index is close to 20%, and its long-term profitability is equivalent to Buffett's, but it has also experienced a decline of 1644 trading days, with the annual maximum withdrawal exceeding 2 1%. (Wind, as of 2020/ 12/3 1)
Source of data: wind, deadline: 202 103 19.
Fluctuations may also be part of long-term gains. Fluctuation may not only be evil, but also bring benefits. Between "greed" and "fear", there are often additional investment opportunities, especially those high-quality stocks that have been killed by mistake because of market panic. Fluctuations brought by market sentiment create opportunities for people with long-term value investment vision to underestimate buying, and then short-term fluctuations naturally become part of long-term gains.
Successful timing requires two correct decisions. The ideal way to embrace volatility is to "buy low and sell high", so many people have been tirelessly looking for the best time to enter the market. But the short-term timing effect is often not satisfactory. The right timing requires doing two things at the same time-buying at a low point and selling at a high point. Even if a person's single winning rate is as high as 70%, the probability of making two consecutive decisions is 49%. Therefore, to some extent, the saying that "it is more difficult to step on the market accurately than to catch a flying knife in the air" circulating on Wall Street is true.
For a good fund, being quilted at a higher level than "chasing up" may be a nightmare for many people. Buying at a stage high point means paying more time costs. As investors, we should of course avoid entering the market when the market is obviously overheated, such as 20 15 (there are often obvious signals at this time). However, from a longer-term perspective, it is a good buying point for funds that keep hitting new highs. Even if they "accidentally" catch up and stay in Qingshan, the rebound will still come. If you overreact to fluctuations, "floating losses" will become "real losses".
Source: wind; ; Deadline: 202 10329
How to embrace fluctuation? It may be that it is too difficult to grasp the short-term timing of fixed investment and the fluctuation is difficult to grasp. There are two methods worth considering, one is to insist on fixed investment, and the other is to focus on the long term. Fixed investment is equivalent to using market fluctuations to automatically form an investment model of "reducing financing on rallies and increasing profits on dips" and "reducing profit share and increasing net profit" to obtain a lower average cost.
For long-term directional returns, short-term fluctuations are just a small wave on the road of equity investment. It may be more feasible to reduce the number of decisions and focus on long-term goals with high probability. Do a good job in asset allocation and hand over the investment to excellent fund managers, and time will eventually brew wine.