At present, the price-earnings ratio of the entire brewing sector is nearly 60 times. The lowest price-earnings ratio of liquor stocks is Yanghe, which is 3 1.88 times, which is a very auspicious figure. The highest price is Huangtai Liquor, 637 times, and Kweichow Moutai, the leading industry, 64 times. No matter from which point of view, the valuation has been bubbled.
Liquor is in a strong position at present, not because it has much investment value, but because new institutional funds keep coming into the market and need to withdraw at a profit, so we can only keep raising the stock price, hoping to pull out a shipping space and find a new offer.
According to agency estimates, the rise of liquor stocks is not due to a substantial increase in performance, but to an increase in valuation. From 20 19 to 202 1 to 1, the time is two years, and the EPS growth of 38% means that the average annual profit growth rate is less than 18%. At the same time, the average annual increase of stock price reached 100%, and the increase of stock price far exceeded the increase of profit.
Take Kweichow Moutai as an example. From 20 12 to 20 18, the PE range of Kweichow Moutai is 10-40 times. At present, PE is 60 times, which has exceeded 50% of the upper limit of the historical average. Isn't this a bubble phenomenon?
It is a bit difficult to solve the high valuation risk by performance growth in the future, especially for second-and third-line liquor. The fierce competition does not rule out the decline of 2 1 performance of some liquor companies, which further pushes up the valuation level.
The Economic Daily issued a document saying: Long-term excessive group speculation of leading stocks is equal to "lazy to make quick money", which violates the belief spirit of securities investment funds. Indeed, the current system unity is not necessarily for the benefit of the people, but for the benefit of fund companies and individuals.
Now that the organization has money, it will be willful, so it can buy and push up the stock price. Therefore, in the short term, no one can stop the share price of liquor stocks from rising, but the risk is very high. This is a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.