The reasons for several bull markets in the history of A-shares are partly driven by fundamentals, partly due to the low valuation at the time of start-up and partly due to the improvement of corporate income. , such as 20 14-20 15, driven by liquidity and policies, in fact, the economy is declining, and enterprises
However, drawing lessons from history, we have learned enough experience and lessons. This year, under such a difficult historical background, affected by major epidemics at home and abroad, the downward pressure on the economy has intensified. So sometimes the stock market has fallen for a long time, fearing that it will directly affect the real economy and may introduce a series of favorable policies to stimulate the stock market. If you are eager for bull market funds, you will use all favorable factors to launch a wave of market.
At present, what we see is that the state is constantly formulating a more effective policy transmission system and gradually stimulating policies according to its own needs. This move has brought about a significant improvement in the transmission efficiency of monetary policy, hoping to really let funds flow to the real economy. For investors, such a policy is undoubtedly really protecting the interests of long-term investors in the market, rather than the interests of short-term game funds. Therefore, we have reason to believe that the development of A shares will enter a healthier development track in the future.
2. Don't doubt that funds make money. In fact, funds make money!
What we just discussed is whether A shares can make money. Now let's see if the fund can make money.
From the total index of stock funds to (2004), its cumulative rate of return greatly outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index.
Source: wind, the statistical interval is from 2004-0 1-02 to 2020-04-0 1. The past performance of the index does not represent the future performance. The market is risky and investment needs to be cautious.
In addition, the total index of stock funds indicates the average investment level of stock funds. At present, the Shanghai Composite Index hovers around 2800 points, but this index far exceeds the historical first place of 6 124 points in 2007. What does this mean? 16 years, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index has increased by 205. 1%, and the total index of stock funds has increased by 587.8%, which is more than twice the increase of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index.
Many investors may say that they have acknowledged the excess returns brought by the fund's long-term investment. What if I am? Unfortunately? What should I do if I buy it at such a high market price of 15?
Perhaps unexpectedly, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped from 5 178 to more than 2,800 points now, down nearly 50%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 points fell by more than 30%, but these funds benefited a lot. Of course, these funds are not? Ji Shen? However, in the context of constantly updated performance, it has also experienced a long-term decline in the bull market. Many investors are also famous for the excellent performance of these funds, but now they can't see them? Bright? I waited once when I was cutting meat, but I redeemed it immediately, but I missed the best harvest time.
Look here, if you were given another choice, would you choose to stick to it? Or cut the meat and leave? I believe the answer may change.
It shows that even if the overall market declines, equity funds continue to create excess returns and run out of a beautiful curve.
In the past 15 years, among the 3649 trading days of A-shares, the Shanghai Composite Index had 1823 trading days below 2800 points. We take four fund indexes (index, stock, mixed and balanced) as statistical objects, and estimate the income of buying capital funds below 2800 points in Shanghai Stock Exchange Index respectively. What is the result?
Third, don't doubt whether you can make money by buying funds now. Now is a very good time!
With the help of historical data, we make statistics from two dimensions, one is the probability of positive income and the other is the rate of return. For self-managed capital funds, the probability of positive returns increases accordingly.
Let's count the specific rate of return. The probability of buying equity funds and holding positive returns for half a year from below 2800 points in the Shanghai Composite Index is above 70%; If you hold it for 3 years, the probability of positive returns can reach more than 85%. .
When the Shanghai Composite Index is below 2800 points, if you buy a stock fund and hold it for half a year, the return rate of the stock fund will be above 15%, and the return rate of holding it for two years can reach above 72%. 3358 www.sogou.com Street
After the market rises, we always miss the investment opportunity of 2800 points. When 2800 really arrived, many people left in a hurry.
The original intention of writing this article is not to take you to the bottom accurately, because the person who can accurately predict the bottom has not yet been born. However? Cheap is the last word? This simplest investment idea has always been proved to be so effective again and again.
Now is a historical moment full of all kinds of pessimistic stories. When you admire the author's perfect interpretation of all kinds of divine logic, China is on the verge of disaster. We should sincerely thank them for their hard work, keeping the market valuation low and bringing us better investment opportunities.
Finally, I hope that with the help of historical data, we can have a deeper understanding of fund investment and help us make more rational decisions.