Looking at the fundamentals of the company, the main business is clear, and there is only one main business, with no more than two main businesses at most.

Second, look for leading and monopolistic companies or companies with a large share in market segments.

3. The growth rate of net assets must exceed the industry average. The most important indicator to measure whether a company grows steadily is the growth rate of net assets, and the dividend rate is not lower than the level of three-year national debt.

4. To examine the top management and operational credibility of the target company, listed companies generally have an investor relations department, which can communicate with fancy companies through online or telephone.

in terms of five industries, look for industries with inflection points or good development prospects.

6. Understand the degree of capital intervention through the K-line chart and the entry and exit of tradable shareholders, and it is best for powerful institutions to intervene and be below the cost.

Finally, you should have psychological control, do not choose doubtful stocks, and choose stocks without doubt. I believe that the selected stocks will make money for you. The first factor to be considered in the long-term stock selection

The first factor to be considered in the long-term stock selection is time. Long-term investment means a long time, and a long time means that anything can happen. Just because a company is in good condition now doesn't mean that it will still be in good condition in the next few years. After all, after a long time, the variables will increase. The method of medium and long-term stock selection mainly depends on fundamental analysis

It is not impossible to do medium and long-term stock selection with technical analysis, but using technical analysis requires looking at the stock price trend chart of large period, such as monthly K-line, quarterly K-line and even annual K-line. The disadvantage of large-period chart is that it is inaccurate and too vague, and not everyone can play with it from the psychological point of view of investors. Therefore, we can only focus on fundamental analysis.

fundamental analysis has three levels, namely, macro-economy, industry development and company development. Investors must analyze from big to small when doing analysis, that is, look at the macro first, then look at the industry, and finally look at the company, not the other way around.

1. A basic premise of stock selection in the medium and long term is that you should be optimistic about the future development of your country's macro-economy. If you are not optimistic about the future development of the macro-economy, there is no point in investing in the medium and long term.

2. Choice of industries. The industry has a life cycle, and it is definitely impossible to choose a declining industry for medium and long-term stock selection, and it is best not to choose a mature industry, unless this mature industry is still a long time away from the arrival of the recession, and it can continue to grow with economic development (of course, the growth rate will not be particularly high), such as the consumer industry, typical representatives such as Maotai, such as Coca-Cola that Buffett likes.

The opportunities are greater in the start-up and growth industries, among which the risk in the start-up industry is greater. Although the risk in the growth industry is also great, because the industry has developed for a little time, there must be excellent companies standing out.

3. About the choice of companies

Although the companies that are poor now may not be poor in the future, in terms of probability, we should still choose the leading companies in the industry. Even if there is something wrong with the leading companies in the future, at least we can change to new leading companies.

investors should understand that the medium and long-term investment is definitely not to stay still after buying a stock, but to change their investment randomly when there are obvious changes in the macro-economy, industry situation and company situation.

Different from many value investors, I think stock selection in the medium and long term should be carried out from top to bottom. After all, picking stocks in a sunset industry is like sitting on a leaky boat. Even if you are lucky enough to buy this "cheap" company at a price lower than the book value, you didn't expect that its price might be lower in a few years, because its performance is getting worse every year.

Therefore, we should pay attention to the potential, tactics and skills in stock selection in the medium and long term. The so-called trend is the national movement. Generally speaking, the profit growth of listed companies is not much different from the growth rate of GDP in the country. At present, China's credit cycle, asset prices, labor costs and environmental protection costs are under great pressure. The double-digit growth in the past has become history, and now China is old enough to soak Lycium barbarum in a thermos cup. This is what we should look at before investing, and make clear where we are. If you understand this position, you won't allocate the cyclical stocks that come back in the long-term investment.

With regard to the potential, we should also pay attention to the credit cycle, which determines the boom and bust cycles of the economy. We should dare to buy promising assets in times of economic depression, and get out decisively at the peak of prosperity. For example, Li Ka-shing is a master of the cycle, not only selling the real estate in mainland China, but also selling two HOUSE in Hong Kong. I will write an article about the credit cycle in China.

the second point is Tao, that is, the allocation of industries, which has high requirements for investors. I once talked about this topic at the Beijing Financial Expo in 214-that is, the industry logic of per capita GDP (interested readers can search). At different stages of GDP development, different industries will get rapid growth. For example, in the era of heavy industrialization, the stock prices of Zoomlion and Sany Heavy Industry are moving like a rainbow, and when the infrastructure demand in China drives the global copper price, Jiangxi Copper and others are bullish. So, you don't have to stare at the computer disk all day, you just need to figure out what industries in China are most likely to develop rapidly in the future.

finally, the operation, that is, how to operate it. Do the right thing at the right time, and find the right company and company manager. After choosing the right industry, you should find the company that is most likely to become the first in the industry. If you really can't find it, you can also find the second and third in the industry. A good company is worth a combination of 1 bad companies. This is the so-called bird in the hand is worth a bird in the bush. If you feel that your level is really limited and you can't see who can become the top 3, then you can buy the index of this industry. In short, we should keep pace with the development of the times.

Many value investors like to use companies with low P/E ratio, low P/B ratio and high dividend yield, but this is not the only criterion. On the contrary, Buffett's Letter to Shareholders opposes this practice. What is more important is the company's competitive barriers and the company managers who can entrust their daughters for life.

that's probably all I thought of. I wish you success in your investment!

Hello, I'm: K-line diagram of the elderly in time and space

It's much easier to operate in the long-term than in the short-term. In terms of comprehensive profit, the profit in the long-term is often greater than that in the short-term. Mainly because short-term opportunities are easy to miss, and it is impossible to be 1% correct. However, in a sense, the medium and long term will greatly improve the success rate to a higher level.

Let me talk about how I choose medium and long-term stocks:

1. The sustained profitability of listed companies is understandable. If a company does not have the sustained profitability, the subsequent price development will definitely be bad;

2. Companies recognized by the market, if they are more unique and iconic, have a high degree of market recognition for many products, such as Kweichow Moutai, which has a high degree of market recognition and is not worried about selling at all, and is unique and iconic. Therefore, enterprises like this will be recognized by more and more people and the prices will be good;

3. Cash flow. If a company's debt ratio is too high, it will be under great pressure when its economic policy changes. However, if the company's debt ratio is moderate and its cash flow is abundant, it shows that the company's advantages in resisting risks and further development will be outstanding;

4. With the establishment of the economic cycle, there is a saying in the stock market: "Timing is more important than stock selection", which means that even the average company's share price is developing upwards when the economic cycle is good. This is very important, and you need to combine your own economic policies and make careful judgments;

5. For companies with good dividend paying ability, the continuous dividend paying ability is also one of the criteria for withdrawing a company.

1. Mid-line stock selection

What is mid-line stock trading? Generally, we call it mid-line stock trading. As mid-line stock traders, how do we choose mid-line stock? In fact, what we need to look at in the mid-line stock selection is the trend, as well as the lock-up disk.

But what we need to know is that mid-line stock trading requires investors to have higher stock knowledge and the ability to judge trends. The mid-line stock picking rules are as follows:

1) See the general trend clearly, the market does not buy during the decline period, nor does it buy during the adjustment period, but only buys during the rise period.

2) Don't watch too many stocks every day. The last thing you can't do in mid-line stock trading is to watch the market often, and don't change your operation plan because of short-term fluctuations.

Next, let's give an example of me doing the mid-line:

The above picture shows the smart agriculture we operated in the early stage, and this stock is the mid-line stock. The stock price runs steadily online and is in an upward trend. If this stock hadn't suffered this big market crash, the market outlook would have gone well. Because he is stable and resilient. The selling point of the mid-line operation is the decapitated hay cutter, and the stock price rises well, and suddenly a long negative line appears, which is the selling opportunity.

Second, long-term stock selection

There is no time limit for long-term holding. What we need to look at in long-term stock selection is the trend, and there is also a lock-up.

Looking at the picture above, long-term stock selection is very simple, that is, the stock price of a line (that is, this line in my picture) has been running offline and has been in a downward channel for a long time. Generally speaking, it can be said that the lock-up disk formed by the high stock price decline will be washed away in the downward channel, and the main force will consider pulling up if there is no lock-up disk above. As for buying points, it is the pressure of Tujia people to break through the yellow line, which means the downward trend. When they break through, it is his buying point.

This is long-term stock trading, which is rarely done. Only people who really have no time to watch the stock market will do it, because long-term operation is unknown. You don't know what the market will be like in the future, and you don't know exactly how the market will be and when large funds will enter the market. This is unknown. To be honest, most people who do long-term work make money (provided there is no stock market crash), but the money they earn takes time.

Long-term and medium-term investment is an ideal way of hot money for working people. Because its investment spans a long period, investors must have a certain endurance. People who are easy to give up halfway decide that they can miss this investment. The following is an introduction to the long-term and medium-term stock selection cycle and its related indicators, which can be used as a reference.

in the medium and long term, the trend of the stock market is a trend, and once the trend is formed, it cannot be changed at once in a short time. However, the daily K-line usually can't correctly reflect the long-term trend, because it is full of changes, and in many cases, the bookmakers will use this indicator to cheat money, while the weekly K-line is different. It can correctly reflect the trend of large bands to the greatest extent, which is exactly the technical indicator that we need to master most seriously in operation.

weekly k-line stock picking skills

tip 3: high volume. Note that the high point here does not refer to the highest point of the stock price, but the price after the cumulative increase of more than 4%. When the cumulative increase of the stock price exceeds 4%, there will be heavy volume, especially the phenomenon that the latter volume is ahead of the latter, and the position should be reduced or the observation should be withdrawn. If the weekly turnover rate of the stock price at the highest point in history does not exceed 2%, the risk is extremely high at this time, and you should flee as soon as possible.

Tip 4: The 5-week moving average is an important indicator. If a stock is heavy at a high point, followed by a double negative, and falls below the 5-week moving average, the market outlook will continue to decline, and it should be resolutely withdrawn at this time. However, when a heavy stock crosses the 5-week moving average and stands firm for two weeks, it is very likely to continue to rise, and you can actively intervene at this time.

tip 5: the fork and golden fork of MACD: the biggest feature of its trend is that it is continuous whether it rises or falls after heavy volume. If the gold fork is at a record low, the K-line will appear in two weeks after standing on the 5-week moving average, and then it is highly likely to rise continuously. Once the fork is formed after the high volume, it will form a continuous downward trend.

I'm glad to answer your question.

Long term is gold, and holding the necessary time is the premise of obtaining compound interest. So how do we choose long-term stocks? I think we should consider the following points:

Choose industries with bright prospects and huge development space

First, industries should conform to the development direction of the times, and second, they should be better and have more development space at the early stage of value discovery.

Take Changdian Technology, a stock I operated last year, as an example to verify it. Chip industry is a new industry, which has not developed very well in China. It has just been upgraded to a national strategy and is in the early stage of value discovery. The annual import substitution alone exceeds 1 trillion yuan, and the space is huge. Select the leading enterprise with the best technical ability and the fastest development in the industry

After acquiring Xingke Jinpeng, Changdian Technology is in the first echelon in the field of chip packaging and testing, keeping pace with the world's advanced technology level and meeting the requirements. The company's share price is cheap

A good company should also buy it cheaply. At that time, after a round of panic decline, the company's share price was less than that of 14 yuan, and its market value was less than 18 billion. It's already very cheap. Compared with similar companies, even if it's not a golden star, Laochangdian can almost be worth the money. Is there any policy support

Obviously, long-distance power meets the requirements. The semiconductor industry has been upgraded to a national strategy with the support of the National Semiconductor Fund. Is there a reference price for capital operation

Yes, the previous price of major shareholders' holdings was around 17, 18 yuan. The current price is less than that of 15 yuan, and the price is upside down, which meets the requirements. Is the management enterprising?

Chairman Wang Xinchao has devoted himself to technology research and development. In the future, NSFC and SMIC will become the two largest shareholders, reflecting the will of the country and meeting the requirements.

The above is an example of my thinking on stock selection in the medium and long term and my personal operation. I hope my answer will help you.

attention should be paid to the opportunity of intervention in medium and long-term operation. This is the key to profit. If you buy a stock at the top and the stock price is on the way down, it will be locked up, not a medium-and long-term investment. Therefore, intervention at a reasonable price is the key to medium and long-term operation. Secondly, long-term investment should also pay attention to stock selection. Long-term and medium-term investments often attach importance to the growth of stocks and focus on the growth of their future earnings. Therefore, the fundamental aspects of listed companies should be discussed more, and some stocks with good growth and stable income should be selected as long-term investment types. Finally, the holding time should be appropriate. When the price-earnings ratio and stock price of the stocks held are high, they should make a profit at the appropriate price and should not miss the opportunity to make a profit.

the skill of medium and long-term operation is mainly to make band quotes and buy them at the bottom.