Financial crisis can be divided into currency crisis, debt crisis, banking crisis, subprime mortgage crisis and other types.
The financial crisis caused by external factors and its international contagion are not recent phenomena. 1873, German and Austrian economic prosperity attracted capital to stay at home, and foreign credit suddenly stopped, which made it difficult for American Jay Cooke companies to operate. 1890 London Bahrain Brothers Investment Bank has a payment crisis against Argentina's creditor's rights. In addition, in June of 5438+00, a financial crisis occurred in new york, and a series of enterprises in London closed down. Bahrain Bank almost closed down in June of 1 10, only with the help of the syndicated guarantee fund led by William Lidderdale, governor of the Bank of England, but Britain helped South Africa, Australia, the United States and other Latin American countries. 1928 In the spring, the new york stock market began to prosper, draining the credit sources that could have been invested in Germany and Latin America, which led to economic depression in these countries and regions. The suspension of overseas credit is likely to accelerate the overseas economic recession, which will have an impact on the countries that caused all this. In 1990s, with the expansion of international hot money, international monetary and financial crises broke out frequently. According to a study completed by Barry Eisengreen and Michael Bodo in 200 1 year, the probability of a financial crisis in a randomly selected country is now 1973 1 times, and the contagiousness of international monetary and financial crises is greatly enhanced, which often happens soon. The media left many words to describe this phenomenon: 1994 "tequila effect", "Asian flu" and "Russian virus" in the Mexican crisis, and the research on the contagion mechanism of monetary and financial crises also rose rapidly. Because a variety of crisis contagion mechanisms need to be realized under the conditions of open capital account and financial market, China survived the Asian financial crisis of 1997 to a great extent by moderate control of capital account and low openness of financial service market. But today, with the changes in China's economic and financial situation, although China's capital account has not been fully opened, the risk of crisis contagion has greatly increased. The American subprime mortgage crisis that shocked the international financial market sounded the alarm for us, indicating that international finance.
The international contagion channels of generalized currency and financial crisis can be divided into two categories: non-accidental contagion channels and accidental contagion channels. The former refers to the infection channels that exist in both the stable period and the crisis period before the crisis. The latter refers to the infection channel that appeared only after the crisis. Because the first type of contagion channel comes from the actual economic and financial ties between countries or regions, and the contagion of crisis comes from the change of macroeconomic fundamentals, it is also called "actual contact channel" or "contagion based on fundamentals", which mainly includes trade ties and competitive devaluation, policy adjustment, random aggregate demand liquidity shock, etc. Accidental contagion has nothing to do with economic fundamentals, but is the result of the behavior (especially irrational behavior) of investors or other participants in the financial market, so it is also called "real contagion" and "pure contagion", which mainly includes endogenous liquidity shock, multiple equilibrium and awakening effect, and political influence contagion. However, these contagion mechanisms are often based on trade links and the investment of "central" countries in "marginal" countries, because institutional investors in developed countries give up emerging market assets and pursue their own high-quality assets. As far as the impact of the US subprime mortgage crisis on China is concerned, the role of China's trade links and foreign investment mechanism may not be critical. On the contrary, China's foreign investment and China's overseas listing may become the most important ways of crisis contagion, and this way of crisis contagion will become more and more important.
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