Keywords: How to say that the fluctuations are upward. In 2010, the complex environment faced by the Chinese economy made the stock market performance unsatisfactory. Then in 2011, the stock market may face a more complex environment, and the interpretation of the market may be more unpredictable.
The internal and external environment is complex. In 2010, the external environment faced by the stock market was the sluggish economic recovery in Europe and the United States, high unemployment in the United States, and Europe was shrouded in the clouds of the sovereign debt crisis.
Although emerging market countries, including China, have achieved relatively high economic growth rates driven by domestic demand, local currency appreciation and imported inflationary pressures brought about by the depreciation of the U.S. dollar are increasing day by day, forcing governments to tighten liquidity and resist hot money.
impact.
This situation will continue in 2011.
Market researchers believe that since the interests of major economies cannot reach consensus, the outcome of the struggle and game among all parties will greatly increase the complexity of the economic situation, and tensions caused by exchange rates and capital flows may intensify.
For emerging market countries, including China, although the economy will still maintain a strong recovery momentum, the foundation of economic recovery is not very solid. Inflation, the rise and fall of the US dollar, and government intervention policies will all bring risks to the stock market.
In particular, we must be wary of the impact that capital will have on emerging markets once the economic recovery in the United States, Japan and Europe stabilizes and interest rate hike expectations increase or even begin to raise interest rates.
In 2011, the stock market will also face a very complex internal economic environment.
In 2011, my country's economic development was still in a critical period of transition from recovery to a virtuous cycle of stable growth.
As the last year of the current government's term and the first year of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", we will seek rapid development amid stability.
On the one hand, domestic demand will be expanded and residents' consumption capacity will be enhanced. The growth of residents' income has been put on the agenda.
On the other hand, we will accelerate the adjustment, optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure. While completing the renewal and closing projects of the 4 trillion yuan investment plan, the construction of major projects determined in the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" will be started one after another, and 10 million sets of affordable housing will also be launched.
will be constructed.
Consumption and investment are expected to continue to drive steady economic growth.
At the same time, inflation will become an important disturbing factor for the economy in 2011.
The imported inflation caused by the depreciation of the US dollar, coupled with the rising prices driven by rising domestic costs, make it more difficult to control inflation. The inflation situation in 2011 may be quite severe.
Analysts believe that it is more difficult to predict the inflation situation in 2011 due to the disturbance of exogenous factors such as CPI statistical indicator adjustment, resource tax and fee reform, and income distribution reform.
Whether next year's summer grain harvest will be good or not will become an important watershed in the price situation.
The National Development and Reform Commission has raised the CPI increase target for 2011 to 4%, which also illustrates the seriousness of the inflation situation.
Once inflation shows signs of being out of control, the market's judgment on the economic outlook will change with the arrival of further tightening policies.
In response to the large inflow of hot money and severe inflation, next year's monetary policy will be adjusted from "moderately loose" to "stable."
In the short term, controlling inflation will be the first goal of policy regulation, but at the same time, the goal of "maintaining growth" must be taken into consideration, so monetary policy will hover between the two goals, increasing policy uncertainty.
It can be said that inflation and policy variables will be important factors that disturb the operation of the A-share market in 2011.
Market supply and demand are balanced. The stock market has entered the era of full circulation. Market participants believe that the supply and demand relationship in the entire stock market has become a buyer's market, ending the era of supply shortage.
However, although the market value after the lifting of the ban in 2011 has decreased compared with that in 2010, the fast-paced issuance of new shares and serious over-funding still put great pressure on funds.
Galaxy Securities predicts that the scale of stock market financing in 2011 is expected to exceed 800 billion yuan, of which IPO financing is about 300 billion to 350 billion yuan. Refinancing and small-cap stocks may become the main force for expansion.
Guosheng Securities predicts that the expansion of A-shares will accelerate to further absorb liquidity. The funds raised by A-shares will exceed 1.2 trillion yuan, and the number of IPO companies will exceed 500.
Judging from the capital supply situation, the regulation of the real estate market is expected to continue, which will restrict speculation and investment from entering the property market. Administrative measures on agricultural product prices will also put pressure on speculative funds. In addition, the increase in deposit interest rates cannot keep up.
CPI, so speculation, investment funds, and residents' deposits are likely to be more attracted to the stock market.
Huatai United predicts that in 2011, approximately 340 billion yuan of funds will flow from the property market to the stock market. In addition, due to low bond yields, the amount of funds flowing from the bond market to the stock market may also reach approximately 530 billion yuan.
CICC estimates that in 2011 the total new market capital brought by individual investors, funds, insurance and social security funds, brokerage wealth management, trust investments and corporate annuities will be approximately 1.23 trillion yuan.
CICC estimates that the capital demand in 2011 will be approximately 1.01 trillion yuan, based on A-share IPOs, refinancing of additional allotments, and the lifting of restricted shares, and the net supply of funds for the year will be approximately 220 billion yuan.
On a comparable basis, the level of capital supply and demand will be better than in 2010.
As for the operating conditions of listed companies, which are the cornerstone of the stock market, the market generally expects that corporate profits will continue to grow. In 2011, the overall net profit of listed companies will increase by about 20% year-on-year.