20 16 international economic situation and its impact on China In 20 16, the world economy will continue to recover weakly, and the external economic environment for China's development will remain complex, which will further affect the domestic economic operation and structural adjustment. Judging from the current situation and development trend, this year's world economic operation will present the following characteristics and trends: First, the world economy and trade will still maintain a low growth trend. After the outbreak of the international financial crisis, although the world economy once rebounded rapidly under the action of large-scale stimulus policies of various countries, with the withdrawal and attenuation of stimulus policies, the world economy and trade have fallen back to a low growth rate of less than 4% since 20 12, and the recovery momentum is obviously insufficient. According to the World Economic Outlook Report released by the International Monetary Fund in June 5438+ 10 last year, the global economy and trade volume will increase by 3. 1% and 3.2% respectively in 20 15, and it is predicted that they will increase by 3.6% and 4.16 respectively. However, judging from the main economic indicators of major economies since the fourth quarter of last year, it is difficult for the global economic and trade growth rate to rebound significantly this year. Most research institutions and international investment banks expect a slight rebound of 0. 1~0.2 percentage points this year. Generally speaking, the world economy is still in a period of deep adjustment after the crisis, and all countries are vigorously promoting structural reforms to accumulate momentum for future economic growth. It is still difficult for the world economy to get rid of low-speed growth in the short term. According to the medium-term outlook of the International Monetary Fund, the average annual growth rate of world economy and trade before 2020 is hard to exceed 4% and 5% respectively, which is obviously lower than the average annual growth rate of 5% and 8% in the five years before the financial crisis. Second, the trend of major economies will be further divided. Since last year, developed economies have generally rebounded, and the growth rate of emerging economies has continued to decline. From the internal situation of developed economies, the American economy has grown rapidly, consumption, investment, exports and real estate have improved significantly, and the unemployment rate has dropped below 5%. Although the economies of the euro zone and Japan have improved, the growth rate is slow, the pressure of deflation is great, and the sustained economic recovery still faces many constraints. Although the three major economies have adopted large-scale fiscal and monetary stimulus policies to support economic recovery after the financial crisis, the structural reforms in the euro zone and Japan have made slow progress, while the United States has also implemented the strategy of revitalizing manufacturing and the export multiplication plan, increased its support for new technologies and industries such as new energy and shale gas, and further consolidated the momentum of economic recovery through structural adjustment. From the perspective of emerging economies, Russia and Brazil have experienced economic recession due to the sharp drop in commodity prices such as oil and geopolitical turmoil. At the same time, they are also facing the pressure of capital outflow, sharp currency depreciation and rising inflation. Other emerging economies, which are highly dependent on resource exports, are generally facing difficulties of varying degrees. Although the overall situation of emerging economies in Asia is relatively good, the slow progress of structural adjustment leads to insufficient endogenous growth momentum, and the weak external demand makes the traditional export-led economic growth model unsustainable, and the economic growth rate generally continues to slow down. Only India continues to maintain a high growth rate of more than 7%. Third, the adjustment and fluctuation of the international financial market may increase. Due to the differentiation of global economic trends and unsynchronized cycles, the monetary policies of major economies have also diverged or even deviated. The Federal Reserve has started the process of raising interest rates, and it is expected that there will still be two or three interest rate hikes this year, while the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are still implementing quantitative easing policies to support economic recovery. The resulting increase in the rate of return on US dollar assets and the strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate will trigger the continuous adjustment and fluctuation of the international bond market, foreign exchange market, stock market and commodity market, especially the accelerated return of international capital to US dollars and US dollar assets, which will make the resource-exporting economies hit hard by the sharp drop in commodity prices worse. Capital outflow and currency devaluation may induce debt repayment crisis in over-indebted economies. The stability of financial market is an important prerequisite for stable economic growth. With the global economic recovery still fragile, the adjustment and fluctuation of the international financial market will further restrict the world economic recovery. Fourth, the prices of commodities such as oil are still likely to fall further. After more than 10 years of super bull market, the international commodity market has fallen into the dilemma of oversupply and sharp price drop. At present, the international oil price has fallen to a low of $30 per barrel, which is as high as 79% compared with the high of $0/45 per barrel before the financial crisis, and the prices of iron ore, copper, aluminum and zinc have also fallen by more than 40%. In the past, the sustained sharp rise in commodity prices stimulated the large-scale expansion of energy and resource products. However, after the financial crisis, the global economic growth rate continued to hover at a low level, and the pattern of oversupply of commodities was difficult to change in the short term. Large exporters of energy and resources maintain fiscal balance to increase their income, but are unwilling to cut production. The market pattern of oversupply will continue to put pressure on commodity prices, and the strength of the US dollar will further curb the rise of commodity prices mainly denominated in US dollars, so there is still room for commodity prices such as oil to fall. International investment banks have predicted that oil prices are likely to fall to the range of $20 to $30 a barrel this year, and other commodity prices have also fallen by more than 5%. Although geopolitical turmoil and market speculation may push up the prices of commodities such as oil in the short term, it is difficult to change the basic trend of weak prices. The low prices of commodities such as oil will aggravate the economic difficulties of resource exporting countries and help resource importing countries reduce import costs, but it will also increase deflationary pressure, which can be said to have both advantages and disadvantages on the global economy. Fifth, the pace of global industrial structure adjustment and industrial chain layout adjustment has accelerated. With the development of new technologies and the acceleration of industrialization, emerging industries such as mobile Internet, renewable energy, Internet of Things, 3D printing, and intelligent manufacturing are accelerating. The popularization and integration of information technologies such as mobile Internet, cloud computing, and big data in the fields of finance, commerce, manufacturing, education, and medical care will continue to spawn new formats, new models, and new industries, and traditional industries will be fully transformed and upgraded. At the same time of accelerating the adjustment of global industrial structure, the new production organization model based on informationization, intelligence, miniaturization, decentralization and personalization will gradually replace the standardized production organization model of large factories with clear division of labor and strict norms and become the mainstream, and the international division of labor is also facing changes. On the other hand, the United States led the Trans-Pacific (60 1099) Partnership Agreement (TPP) and the Transatlantic (600558) Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement (TTIP), which comprehensively expanded market access on the basis of pre-entry national treatment and negative list management, and brought new issues such as labor standards, environmental protection standards, intellectual property rights, government procurement and competition neutrality into the scope of negotiations. It not only sets a new benchmark for the improvement of international economic and trade rules and standards, but also raises the threshold for developing countries to participate in economic globalization, and will gradually change the layout of the global industrial chain, which will have a negative impact on trade, investment and industrial transfer in other economies. Sixth, non-economic factors such as geopolitics have increased. After the international financial crisis, the global political and economic structure has been profoundly adjusted, the international power balance has changed significantly, the world multipolarization has become clearer, and the global governance system and structure have continued to change. In the face of the accelerated rise of emerging powers, the United States and other developed countries have tried their best to safeguard their global dominant position and existing interests. All countries are adjusting their development strategies and foreign relations, various contradictions are prominent and competition friction is intensified. The geopolitical conflicts caused by this are more frequent, and the influence of non-economic factors on world economic growth is also rising. Judging from the current situation, the situation in the Middle East, US-Russia relations, terrorist attacks by extremist forces, the European refugee issue, the DPRK nuclear issue, the Iranian missile issue and so on. Unpredictable new changes may occur, and the world economic recovery will face uncertainty. Generally speaking, the external development environment of China is still complicated and changeable. Although the theme of peace and development has not changed, the external development environment is expected to maintain peace and stability, which is conducive to the continued development of China. However, because the deep-seated impact of the international financial crisis still exists for a long time, the world economy is still in a period of deep adjustment and transformation after the crisis, and the complex changes in geopolitical relations have brought about an increase in unstable and uncertain factors. The sluggish global economic and trade growth is difficult to change in the short term, and the challenges brought to China by changes in the external environment are also increasing. Judging from the current situation, the impact of external environmental changes on China's economic development is mainly concentrated in the following aspects: First, the sluggish growth of world economy and trade not only weakens the pulling effect of external demand, but also brings new opportunities for China to deepen structural reforms and accelerate the cultivation of new growth drivers. After the international financial crisis, the growth rate of China's foreign trade exports continued to decline, and even showed negative growth last year, which has failed to achieve the expected goal for four consecutive years. In the case of weak global economic and trade growth, the steady growth of foreign trade exports this year still faces many difficulties. With the change of international economic environment and China's economic development entering a new normal, we can no longer hope to stimulate economic growth by expanding exports and investment as before. Instead, while moderately expanding the total demand, we should pay more attention to the structural reform of the supply side, especially to adapt to the changes in the international and domestic demand structure, improve the quality and efficiency of the supply system, implement the innovation-driven development strategy, foster new impetus for economic growth (365,438+00328, Fund Bar), and promote foreign trade by adjusting and upgrading the industrial structure. Second, under the background of great changes in science and technology industry, China is facing the opportunity of catching up, but it does not rule out the risk that the gap between China and developed countries will widen and traditional industries will be eliminated by technology. After the international financial crisis, developed countries have increased their investment in research and development of new technologies, new products and new industries to seize the commanding heights of future industrial development and international competition; Emerging economies are also vigorously promoting structural adjustment, actively undertaking international industrial transfer, and paying more attention to the development of manufacturing. There is still a big gap between China and developed countries in the fields of scientific and technological innovation and the development of emerging industries. The traditional cost competitive advantage in the manufacturing field is gradually weakening, and the industrial development and progress are blocked before and followed by troops. If we can't effectively promote scientific and technological innovation and industrial restructuring, it may further widen the gap with developed countries, be at a disadvantage in the new round of international industrial competition, and face fierce competition from other emerging economies in the traditional manufacturing field. Thirdly, the change of supply and demand pattern and the price drop of bulk commodities will not only help China to reduce import costs and increase energy resources imports, but also aggravate the operational difficulties of upstream industries and enterprises. China is in the decisive stage of building a well-off society in an all-round way. Whether accelerating industrialization and urbanization or maintaining sustained and healthy economic development will increase the total consumption of energy resources. Therefore, the loose relationship between supply and demand and the low prices of oil and other commodities are generally conducive to ensuring the safety of energy resources supply and reducing development costs. On the other hand, with the slowdown of economic shift, the slowdown of demand expansion and the general overcapacity, the increase in international market supply and the sharp drop in prices have also brought greater competitive pressure to China's upstream industries such as energy resources exploitation and processing. The continuous decline in producer prices will further aggravate the business difficulties of enterprises, and the pressure to reduce production capacity and costs will increase. Fourthly, the dispute over the dominance of international economic and trade rules not only brings a rare opportunity for China to participate in global economic governance and rule-making, but also challenges China to deepen economic system reform and expand market opening. On June 5438+ 10 last year, the TPP negotiations between the United States and 12 Asia-Pacific economies finally reached an agreement, which not only reached an unprecedented high level in terms of market opening and trade and investment liberalization and facilitation, but also set new standards in the service industries such as environmental protection, labor standards, competition neutrality, e-commerce, finance, etc., and played a leading and exemplary role in the evolution of the future international economic and trade rules system. China has been deeply integrated into the world economy. In order to safeguard the development rights and interests of China and developing countries, we must actively participate in the formulation of multilateral economic and trade rules and the reform and improvement of the international economic governance system, actively guide the global economic agenda, strengthen the institutional voice, and promote the development of the international economic order in the direction of equality, justice, cooperation and win-win. At the same time, we must unswervingly deepen reform and opening up, accelerate the formation of a new system of opening up, better adapt to the new situation of economic globalization and international economic and trade system reform, and promote reform and development through opening up. Fifth, geopolitical relations are complex and changeable, and unstable and uncertain factors are increasing, which not only poses a potential threat to China's economic and social development, but also expands China's room for manoeuvre in the dynamic game of relations among major powers. As the deep-seated impact of the international financial crisis continues to spread from economic, financial, scientific and technological, industrial and other fields to broader fields such as society, politics, military, security and international governance, the strategic game of the global interest pattern has become more intense, geopolitics and relations between major powers have been profoundly adjusted, global terrorism has resurfaced, and hot and sensitive issues have frequently occurred. In response to changes in the external environment, we should not only adhere to principles, properly handle relations between major powers, effectively cope with and control risks, and actively create a good external environment, but also implement a new round of high-level opening-up strategy, promote the construction of the Belt and Road, create a new pattern of opening-up cooperation, win the initiative in development, earnestly safeguard national security and economic security, and ensure the full completion of a well-off society as scheduled.