Recently, JimRogers, former partner of Quantum Fund, made a guest appearance on Super Investor, and deeply shared his relationship with China and China in his eyes. This is an old friend who is very familiar with the investment community in China. Participated in the creation of Quantum Fund, famous for investing in commodity futures. He is known as the "king of commodities", and is also known as the world's three largest investors with Buffett and Soros.
The reporter of this newspaper selected ten investment proverbs from Rogers' conversation to provide readers with food.
1, China will become the most successful country in 2 1 century, so it is necessary to speak Mandarin well.
In Rogers' eyes, in the past 40 years, no country has developed so rapidly, so strongly and so steadily as China. "All countries will encounter problems in their development, but China will be the most successful. China has population, education and all the conditions. But I can't see the possibility that other countries outside China will become the most successful countries for the time being. "
Rogers said that China will become the most successful country in the 2nd/Kloc-0th century. China has a large population, a lot of savings and investment, attaches importance to education and has an adequate budget.
"I'm teaching my children Mandarin. I saw the efforts of the people of China. They are very strict with their children and now attach importance to education. " Rogers said that China will rise again and become the next world power. Many people don't like all this, and even many people in China don't know what will happen. So it is necessary to speak Mandarin well.
In 250 years, my children will look at the stock market and say, "Look at these China stocks! How clever he is! We are rich! "
Rogers mentioned more than once that he would leave his China stock to his children. In an interview with the newspaper, he once again mentioned that his children would hold a large number of China stocks. His idea is that one day 50 years later, his children will look at the stock market and sigh, "Look at these China stocks! He (Rogers) is really clever! We are rich! "
3. China will be the future technical leader, and China has trained many engineers, some of whom will become very great and successful engineers.
According to Rogers, in the past 100 years, China was not good at engineering manufacturing, and Silicon Valley and other places had taken the lead. But there are many very smart engineers in China, and the number of engineers is about 10 times that of the United States. There are also many excellent Internet and engineering companies in China.
"I don't know who the next outstanding person will be, because I don't understand Chinese. But those who can find this answer will become rich. " Rogers said. In his view, China will become a technical leader in the future, because China has trained many engineers, some of whom will become very great and successful engineers.
The next recession will be the worst in my life. At present, debts everywhere are very high, which is unprecedented in world history.
Rogers pointed out that from 2008 to 2009, the world economy did not slow down for more than a decade, which was the longest economic recession in American history. Recently, global central banks continue to raise interest rates, which will hurt many people and lead to bankruptcy.
"The next recession will be the worst in my life," Rogers said, because there are too many debts, and now the debts everywhere are very high, which is unprecedented in world history. Raising interest rates three times, four times, five times and seven times will hurt many people and lead to bankruptcy.
Rogers stressed that rising inflation and higher interest rates will worsen the economic recession. "The situation will get worse, and I want to reiterate that this will be the worst economic period in my life."
5. Prepare for the economic slowdown. Companies with debts and countries with large debts will be seriously hurt.
From a global perspective, Rogers believes that it is necessary to prepare for the economic slowdown. Companies with debts and countries with more debts will be seriously hurt, which will be more affected than countries with less debts.
Rogers suggested that if you want to invest, try to find companies and countries with little or no debt. Moreover, although inflation has become more serious, there will always be an equivalent.
"If you hold the equivalent that the price will go up, you will make more money when there is inflation. For example, the price of rice will go up. If you own rice, you will make money. If you own silver, the price of silver will go up and you will earn more money. So, try to hold things that will increase in price, and you will make money. " Rogers said.
6. Next year, we may start to see bankruptcy. When bankruptcy appears, this is the "black swan", and the situation will get worse.
When predicting the future world situation, Rogers said that next year, we will begin to see bankruptcy. When bankruptcy begins, some things will become "black swan" events. In his view, people will be shocked when they start to see bankruptcies in America, Japan and other places. There has been no major bankruptcy in the world for a long time, and the situation will get worse when it goes bankrupt.
"So I hope that China can allow enterprises to go bankrupt instead of rescuing them, so that China's economy can recover faster than other places." Rogers said.
Every time something goes wrong, American politicians always blame foreign countries. They always do.
Commenting on the bilateral relations between China and the United States, Rogers said that it is very bad for American politicians to blame foreigners for the problems. This should not be the case, but this is what is happening.
"I am worried that if the situation in the United States continues to decline and this situation is not changed in the next few years, politicians will start to blame foreigners again." Rogers said, "Sino-US relations are unstable now. If the situation worsens, I am sure that American politicians will blame all this on foreigners, and China is the most successful in other countries, so they will blame China. "
Rogers believes that trade friction must be limited because it will make things worse. "I can sit here and keep repeating' Don't point the finger at foreign countries', but politicians won't do that." Rogers said he hated mentioning American politicians.
8, electric car stocks are too expensive, I have mines.
When talking about new energy stocks, Rogers admitted that he didn't know which company would dominate the field of new energy vehicles, and the stocks of these companies were very expensive. But he provided an idea-pay attention to metal companies.
Rogers explained that new energy vehicles use four times as much copper as traditional fuel vehicles and need more lead and lithium. So no matter which car company does the best, it needs a lot of metal.
"This is the way I play games, because I am not smart enough to know which car company is the best, but I know that in the past few decades, not many people have driven lead mines and copper mines, so when new demand for lithium and other metals appears, there is not enough supply." Rogers said, "(If) I have copper and lead, I don't care which car company is the best and which company can win, because no matter who wins, they need to buy more metals such as copper and lithium. I hope these companies will win in the future. "
9. Everyone wants to get rich overnight, which will ruin you and make you learn more.
Rogers pointed out that in the face of an increasingly complex world in the future, we must master more knowledge and understand what is happening in the world. For example, he said that in the 1930s, the world faced a terrible economic crisis, but some people were still very successful.
"When a person is knowledgeable, he will worry, and you will say,' Oh, my God, we are going to have a problem.' If you have knowledge, you will be prepared and you may make a lot of money. "Rogers said that everyone wants to listen to gossip and get rich overnight, but that will ruin you.
Rogers has repeatedly stressed that don't listen to gossip, learn more knowledge and stick to what you know. Only when you watch something change will you know that it will succeed.
10, if I told you that you can only have 20 investment opportunities in your life, you would be very cautious. Don't worry about boredom, success is boring.
Rogers said that if I told you that you can only have 20 investment opportunities in your life, you would be very cautious. Only in this way can we succeed.
"If you want to invest successfully, then focus on what you know. People know something about different fields, such as fashion, sports, cars and so on. If you insist on investing in the field you know, you will succeed. " Rogers said: "If you follow my advice and buy a stock, you will be at a loss whether it will go up or down in the future."
Rogers stressed that investment must be treated with caution. If you want to succeed, it will be boring. Don't worry about boredom, success is boring.