I have always hated technology. My personal experience shows that people who don't follow the trend can also become successful investors. In fact, most famous investors I know (Warren Buffett is the first) are technology-averse. They never buy shares in companies they don't know, and neither do I.
I think "stock price" is the least valuable information that investors can find, but it is also the easiest information to find.
I agree with this view: the company's income will affect the success or failure of securities investment sooner or later, and the stock price fluctuation today, tomorrow or next week will only distract investors.
I don't advise you to buy shares in a store just because you like shopping, nor do you advise you to buy shares in a manufacturer just because it produces products you like or because you like food in a hotel. Liking a store, a product or a hotel is a good reason to be interested in a company. Its shares can be included in your research list, but this is not a sufficient reason to buy the company's shares. Never buy a company's stock before you have studied its profit prospects, financial situation, competitive situation and development plan.
If you own shares in a retail company, another key point in analyzing its situation is to determine whether the company's expansion period is coming to an end-I call this the "last chance".
You must pay attention to the source of the company's future income growth and when the development speed will slow down.
Those stocks that lost money made me notice that it is very important that you don't have to make money on every stock you choose. According to my personal experience, if 60% of the stocks in our portfolio can make money, it is a very satisfactory portfolio.
Invest 1000 USD in a stock with poor performance, and in the worst case, lose 1000 USD. And if you invest $65,438+0,000 in a stock with a good market, investors may earn $65,438+0,000, $65,438+0,500 or even $20,000 in a few years. As long as investors choose a few stocks with very good performance, they can achieve the success of lifelong investment, and the money earned from these stocks with good performance will far exceed the losses suffered from those with poor performance.
Expecting to make a living by short-term investment is just like expecting to make a living by racing cars and gambling cards. The chances are slim.
History tells us that the decline in market prices (down 10% or more) occurs every few years, while the bear market (down 20% or more) occurs every six years. After 1929~ 1932, the market plunged five times (down more than 30%).
When I look back on these past events, it is obvious that studying history and philosophy is more helpful for investment than studying statistics. Stock investment is an art, not a science. Therefore, a person with strict quantitative education will often encounter greater disadvantages when investing.
If we think that Wall Street experts are desperately looking for reasons to buy promising stocks, it is that they know too little about Wall Street. What fund managers are most likely to look for is a reason not to buy such stocks. In this way, he can provide appropriate reasons to prove that he didn't buy stocks when they went up.
In fact, when faced with two choices: making a big profit in an unknown company's stock and ensuring a small loss in a recognized company's stock, no matter a typical fund manager, pension fund manager or company portfolio manager, they will gladly choose the latter. It is good to make a lot of money, but it is more important to make your loss as small as possible when your investment strategy fails.
The stock I want to buy is the stock that traditional fund managers ignore. In other words, I will continue to think about investment as an amateur investor as much as possible.
You don't have to be like an institutional investor when investing. If you invest like an institutional investor, your performance will inevitably be the same as that of an institutional investor, and in many cases, the performance of institutional investors is not very good.
Frankly speaking, it is impossible for people to completely separate investment from gambling and put it in an elegant category that can reassure us. There is no absolute dividing line between safe and unsafe places to put money. It was not until the late 20th century that ordinary stocks finally got the title of "prudent investment" (before that, people criticized that buying stocks was no different from gambling in bars), and it was during this period that the overvalued market made buying stocks more like gambling than investing.
Historically, stocks are usually regarded as cyclical investments or gambling, when they should not be regarded as investments or gambling. Usually when the risk of stock trading is very high, people are more likely to regard it as a prudent investment.
For me, investing is just a gamble. In the meantime, you must try to tilt the results in your favor, whether it's Atlantic City, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index or the bond market. In fact, the stock market reminds me of Stud.
I will be very happy if 70% of the stocks I buy run according to my prediction. But if 60% of the trend is the same as my prediction, I will be grateful. Because as long as you can successfully predict 60% of the stock trend, you can create an enviable record on Wall Street.
Obviously, buying stocks has become a worthwhile gamble-as long as you understand the rules of the game, as long as you own stocks, new opportunities will continue to emerge. From this, I think the profit opportunities of investing in stocks are far more than card games. If you own 10 stock, you will have a greater chance of making money.
You can only pay half the cash for buying stocks. This is called "margin purchase" in trading, but whenever the price of the stock you buy with margin drops, you must deposit more cash in your account. However, buying a house will not happen. If the market price of the house falls, you don't have to take out more cash, even if the house is located in a depressed oil-producing area.
Therefore, it is no wonder that people make money in the real estate market and lose money in the stock market-it often takes months to choose a house, while it takes only a few minutes to choose a stock. In fact, they spend more time on buying microwave ovens than on stocks. Only invest the money you can afford to lose in the stock market to ensure that this loss will not affect your daily life in the foreseeable future.
In the IQ test, the IQ of the best investors may be 10% higher than the average, but 3% lower than the highest IQ level. In my opinion, real geniuses are too focused on theoretical thinking, so their estimates are always inconsistent with the actual trend of stocks, and the actual fluctuation of stocks is much simpler than they think.
It is also important to be able to make decisions with incomplete information. When things on Wall Street are almost unclear before us and things become clear, there is no profit. The scientific way of thinking that needs to know all the data does not apply here.
Human nature makes investors afraid of the timer in the stock market. These careless investors constantly switch between three emotions-paying attention to the stock market; Self-satisfied; Give up their stocks-after the stock market falls or when the economy seems to have declined, these stock investors will become concerned about the stock market. In this falling market, they can't buy good company shares at low prices. After they bought the stock at a higher price, they began to feel complacent because their stock was rising. At this time, they should pay more attention to the company, but they didn't. Finally, their shares continued to fall until they fell below the purchase price. They decided to give up their shares and sold them in panic.
Some people call themselves "long-term investors", but this situation can only last until the next plunge (or almost no money). Once the stock market plummeted, they quickly became short-term investors, selling all the stocks with huge losses or little profits. In the volatile stock market, people are easy to panic.
For patients, specific drugs are drugs that can cure diseases; The specific medicine for investors is the medicine that needs to be taken continuously to stabilize the disease.
Under normal circumstances, if doctors are investigated, I bet that only a few people buy stocks in the pharmaceutical industry, while the vast majority invest in stocks in the oil industry; If you investigate the owner of a shoe store, the result may be that most people buy shares in the aviation industry, not shoes. Conversely, aviation engineers may be more involved in the footwear industry. I don't know why stocks are like grass: I always think other people's lawns are greener.
Although buying stocks that don't know anything may be lucky and get rich returns, in my opinion, it is creating unnecessary trouble-just like a marathon runner decides to defend his reputation in a sled race.
On the one hand, it is professionals' views on the operation mode of this industry, on the other hand, consumers' attention to a product. Both views are very useful in stock selection, but the specific methods are different.
Professional advantages are particularly helpful in deciding the timing of buying and selling stocks of companies in so-called cyclical industries.
The advantage of consumers is very helpful for successful companies that have developed rapidly from newer and smaller scale, especially those in the retail industry. Happily, no matter what advantage you occupy in stock trading, you can form your own set of stock analysis methods, which are not affected by the conventional analysis of Wall Street. If you rely on experts on Wall Street, you can always get useful information afterwards. Once I have identified a company in a special industry, I will classify it into one of six basic types: stable and slow growth, big and stupid, rapid growth, periodicity, excess assets and transformation dilemma.
In my portfolio, there are not many companies with a growth rate of 2% ~ 3%, because if the company's development speed is not very fast, its stock will not rise very fast. If the increase in income makes the company rich, what's the point of wasting time on a steady and slow-growing company? Big Ben elephant company
Stupid big company. These giant companies with billions of dollars in assets are not fast-growing companies, but they are growing faster than stable and slow-growing companies. Its chart is not as flat as the map of Delaware, but it is not as steep as Mount Everest.
Usually, after I buy an elephant stock, if its share price rises to 30% ~ 50%, I will sell it, and then I will do the same for those elephant stocks whose prices have not risen yet.
I always keep some stocks of big and stupid companies in my portfolio, because their relatively stable prices can always provide better protection for my portfolio in times of economic recession or stock market depression. A fast-growing company
Fast-growing companies are one of my favorite types of investment. This kind of company is characterized by small scale, annual growth rate of 20% ~ 25%, dynamic and relatively new company. If you choose carefully, you will find that such companies contain a large number of stocks that can rise by 10 ~ 40 times or even 200 times. If the portfolio is small, you can make a lot of money just by choosing one or two stocks in such companies.
Fast-growing companies do not necessarily belong to fast-growing industries. I'd rather such a company doesn't belong to a fast-growing industry. In a slow-growing industry, all it needs is a space for sustainable development. Regular company
A cyclical company refers to a company whose sales revenue and profits rise or fall regularly. In the growth industry, the company just keeps expanding; In the cyclical industry, the development of the company is in the process of expansion and contraction.
Cars and airlines, tire companies, steel companies and chemical companies are all cyclical companies, and even the defense industry behaves like cyclical companies because their profits rise and fall periodically with the changes of different ruling parties.
From recession to prosperity, cyclical companies have experienced cyclical recovery and prosperity, and their share prices have risen much faster than those of big and stupid companies.
If you buy shares in cyclical companies when they are in recession, you will soon lose more than half of your investment, and it will be several years before you can see the prosperity of the company again.
The stock of cyclical companies is the most easily misunderstood stock of all types of companies. It is the stock of this company that makes it easy for careless investors to invest, and at the same time makes investors think it is the safest. Because the main cyclical companies are big and well-known companies, they are essentially no different from those big and stupid companies that are trusted.
When the stock market is depressed or the national economy is in recession, if the assets lost by big and stupid companies are 50%, then the market value lost by cyclical companies will reach 80%. Asset surplus company
A company with surplus assets is any company you know that deals in valuable assets, but this valuable asset has been ignored by experts on Wall Street. There are so many analysts and corporate acquirers on Wall Street that it seems that there should be no assets that have not been noticed by Wall Street, but believe me, such assets exist. Investing in the stocks of companies with surplus assets can take advantage of local advantages to get the maximum return. Transformation-oriented company
A company in distress in transition, that is, a company that has been hit hard and declined, almost needs to apply for bankruptcy protection in accordance with the provisions of Chapter 1 1 of the Bankruptcy Law. They are not stable and slow-growing companies, they are zero-growth companies; They are not cyclical companies that will rebound, but companies that are about to go bankrupt.
The advantage of investing in successful companies is that among all types of stocks, the rise and fall of such stocks are least affected by the whole market.
I would rather buy shares in pharmaceutical companies, beverage companies, razor companies or tobacco companies than toy companies. Toy manufacturers can make wonderful toys that every child likes, but every child will only buy one. After 8 months, the toy will be taken off the shelf and give way to a new toy produced by another manufacturer.
It is usually meaningless for insiders to sell their shares, so it is foolish to react to it. Under normal circumstances, insider selling stocks is not a signal that the company is in trouble. Managers can sell their shares for a variety of reasons. They may need cash to pay their children's tuition or buy a new apartment or pay off debts. They may have decided to buy other stocks to diversify their portfolios. However, insiders buy the company's stock for only one reason-they think the price of the stock is undervalued, and eventually it will rise.
There is no inside information that can prove the value of the stock better than the employees buying the company's stock. Generally speaking, company employees are net sellers of their own company's shares. Usually, their purchase example is 123.
When employees buy shares in this company crazily, you can at least be sure that this company will not go bankrupt in the next six months. When employees are buyers of shares in their own companies, I bet that no more than three such companies will go bankrupt in a short period of time in history.
If there is a stock I don't want to buy, it must be the hottest stock in the hottest industry. This kind of stock attracts most people's attention. People will hear people talking about it, whether in cars or on suburban trains. Most people buy it because of the influence of others around them.
Active stocks are rising fast-almost unbelievable, and falling fast, because they are only supported by investors' hopes and thin air. If you don't sell it in time, it will soon change from making money to losing money, because it won't fall slowly when it falls, and it won't stop when it falls to a certain price.
If you want to make a living by buying active stocks in hot industries that appear one after another, you will soon receive welfare benefits.
If you have a good idea, but you can't protect it with patents or niche, then when you succeed, you can't avoid the infringement of imitators. For business, imitation is the most civilized form of competition.
The other stocks I avoid buying are those that are touted as "IBM Second", "McDonald's Second", "Intel Second" or "Disney Second". As far as my personal experience is concerned, a company touted as "the second company of a company" will never do as well as a company, whether it is Broadway, bestseller, National Basketball Association or Wall Street.
In fact, when people blow a stock as "so-and-so second", it means that not only this "so-and-so second" stock will be exhausted, but also this "so-and-so stock" will become a thing of the past. When other computer companies were called "IBM 2", you might have guessed that IBM would go through a bad period, and it did.