"I didn't expect that this time, Liu Neng actually became the man I couldn't have."

At the beginning of March, 221, when everyone was still feeling "Ye Qing Jie" for the substitution of Liu Neng in Country Love 13, the blind box of country love was officially launched. According to the introduction chart of the blind box of Country Love, vol.1 series I * * * has five models, namely, regular models Xie Guangkun, Zhao Si, Song Xiaofeng, Xie Dajiao and hidden models Liu Neng.

As soon as this news was sent out, it reached the second place in the Weibo Tide List in less than two hours. "The end of the universe is Tieling, and the top stream of tide play is hometown love", "Liu Neng Liu Neng, Wish Liu Neng" ... Only 6 hours after the launch, the first batch of blind boxes of country love edition were all sold out.

I have to say, with the fashionable carrier of "blind box", the earthy IP has quickly gone out of the circle. Since the rapid rise of blind box economy in China, "blind box" is like a panacea for marketing, ranging from flights and cars to fresh food and toys, which can be described as "everything can be blind box".

In addition, with the sample of POP MART, capital also began to pay for the "blind box" story. Tao Qing, an entrepreneur of Chaowan, bluntly told China Investment Network that after POP MART's listing, the capital's attitude towards its company changed greatly. From not understanding to chasing the investment, the valuation has also risen a lot.

but back to the essence of mass consumption, is this "blind box fever" mixed with bubbles? Can capital usher in the "next POP MART"?

Uncertainty is "addictive", and buses have also introduced blind boxes.

The wind of blind boxes even blows to city buses.

On March 18th, 221, according to the poster news report of the public network, Jiang Mengli, the driver of Qingdao Chengyun Holding Bus Licang Bus Line 29, made a blind box to let passengers open the spring in the carriage.

It is reported that these self-made blind boxes are all small gifts related to the custom of the vernal equinox, and each blind box has a "vernal equinox blessing" written by the driver himself, and the greetings are different. Some passengers drew kites, and others drew pictures of eggs and bullfights.

In the field of consumption, the "blind box wind" is even more common. Fresh blind box, beauty blind box, stationery blind box, air ticket blind box, archaeological blind box ... It is no exaggeration to say that the concept of blind box has almost become the "standard" of all TOCs, and there are blind boxes where there are people.

There is a more intuitive description about the popularity of blind boxes: blind boxes have also been selected as "Top Ten Commodities in 22" released by Taobao. You know, masks, Regan Noodles and Altman were also selected.

Yu Yue, head of Huachuang Capital Consumption, believes that blind boxes are favored by consumers because they meet the needs of young people to "buy happiness at a small price". "Blind boxes add some novelty and excitement to simple consumer goods, and there will be uncertainty in lottery. At the same time, the blind box has the characteristics of collectibles, which can be collected by consumers and even traded. This is in line with the current consumption logic. "

but it should be noted that not all goods can be carried on the "blind box" express. For example, some second-hand platforms even sell live "pet blind boxes".

Tu Zheng, the founding partner of Bee Qiao Capital, reminded that blind box, as a new marketing method, was adopted by more and more enterprises, and the excitement and surprise brought by uncertainty touched some consumers. But the blind box itself is not a panacea. In the long run, it is necessary to return to the attractiveness of the products in the blind box to consumers.

"Most of the products packaged in blind boxes in the market recently follow the trend and are short-term, which is divorced from the essence of consumer demand." Tu Zheng said.

the half-year valuation has tripled, and capital has begun to pay for the story of the blind box?

POP MART is the wind maker of the "blind box hurricane" in the venture capital circle.

on December 11th, 22, POP MART listed on the Hong Kong stock market, which reached HK$ 1 billion on the first day of trading, and then declined somewhat, but soon returned to its market value of 1 billion. With small "blind box" dolls, POP MART has become the largest and fastest growing trend toy company in China.

The prospectus shows that POP MART's net profit has increased by 3 times in just three years. Soon, capital began to wind up.

Tao Qing, an entrepreneur of Trend Toy Company, told China Investment Network about his "roller coaster" financing process in recent years. "From 216 to 218, we had frequent contact with capital and hoped to get financing, but at that time 95% of investors could not understand what we were doing." Tao Qing said, "Even if we finish BP, they are still confused and even think our model is unreasonable."

However, after the news that POP MART submitted its listing application, the attitude of capital towards "blind box enterprises" took a 18-degree turn.

"Since the summer of 22, I have received more calls from investors." Tao Qing told China Investment Network, "Since 221, I have basically met several employers every week to prepare for the next round of financing, and my valuation has probably tripled."

Not only is the enthusiasm getting higher, "the capital has a higher acceptance of our story, and we can basically understand our business model." Tao Qing mentioned, "In this way, POP MART not only educated the market, but also educated investors to some extent."

"The blind box economy is not a market subsidized by discounts, and there is no phenomenon that there is a gap between the expectation and reality of many products in online celebrity. This is the early appearance of a big track." Liu Bo, a partner of Qingliu Capital, mentioned that in the early days, some investors misunderstood the blind box track and thought it was a market supported by one or two IPs. However, at present, many investors have reached a basic understanding: blind box is a commercialized and successful medium for the overall IP market to fall from two dimensions to three dimensions.

As Yu Yue saw, the "blind box" is actually a typical consumer goods business with a high ceiling.

Yu Yue said in the analysis of China Investment Network that, first of all, there is no reference system for the pricing of blind box products. "Because it is not a ready-made consumer product: 1 yuan will do, and 1 yuan will do, and there is a lot of bargaining space in the middle. Enterprises have pricing power, which is rare in consumer goods enterprises. "

Secondly, blind boxes have natural communication properties, so enterprises do not need to spend too much marketing cost. Finally, the blind box products are user-friendly and the repurchase rate can be guaranteed.

"With high pricing power, high gross profit margin and high repurchase rate, such products will naturally be sought after by capital." Yu Yue said, "Therefore, it is not difficult to understand the popularity of the POP MART model."

However, this does not mean that capital is not controversial about the "blind box economy".

"The pursuit of' blind box economy' by capital is irrational." Tu Zheng told China Investment Network that "an emerging industry will inevitably go through the process of bubble and defoaming from birth to rapid development and return to benign development."

enterprises cluster together to recreate the "next POP MART"?

Wang Ning, chairman of POP MART, once said that the blind box is indeed a very important product form, and POP MART has brought it on fire in China. But it is biased to say that POP MART is a blind box company.

"POP MART is essentially an IP operation company with Chaowan as the carrier." Wang Ning concluded.

In this way, this kind of business model is not crude, and it is gradually accepted by the capital market: So, with the help of VC/PE, will the next POP MART appear?

"When we invested in 52Toys in 219, we firmly believed that the success of POP MART was just the tip of the iceberg, and the trend of adult toy industry had been made clear, and the blind box was only the first product form." Liu Bo told China Investment Network.

Liu Bo believes that in the future, more toy forms will stand out in the market, because the structure of the upstream and downstream layout of the overall tide play industry has been set up: the climate has been formed in the upstream manufacturing, downstream retail channels and the talent pool of the overall toys.

However, what will stand out in the future market will not be the next POP MART, but another representative with other characteristics in the field of tide play.

"In the final analysis, the popularity of POP MART belongs to a specific cultural phenomenon. The success of this enterprise does have certain contingency. After all, IP products are not just needed, and the market is also in the process of being educated and popularized. " Yu Yue said.

"It is very difficult to copy POP MART in the field of tide play." Tu Zheng told China Investment Network that "the absolute leader represents greater market, brand and resource adsorption capacity, and POP MART has established a multi-layer moat. At present, what POP MART thinks and does is 2-3 stages ahead of most followers or many micro-innovators in this field. "

in fact, "there are some popular elements behind such IP products, whether it is a blind box or a street brand, which seems to be hot, but it is actually uncontrollable." Therefore, Yu Yue said, "'re-engraving' is not so easy for such enterprises. Even with the help of capital, enterprises cannot survive for a long time without the real love and recognition of the public. "

(At the request of the interviewee, Tao Qing is used as a pseudonym)