On February 13th, China Association of Automobile Manufacturers held an online press conference to release the sales data for January.
specifically, in January, the production and sales of passenger cars are estimated to be 1.444 million and 1.614 million respectively, down by 27.6% and 2.2% respectively, which is greater than the overall automobile market. The output of commercial vehicles was 341,, down 7.8% year-on-year; The sales volume of commercial vehicles was 326,, down 5.7% year-on-year. The output of new energy vehicles is expected to be 4,, a sharp drop of 55.4% year-on-year; The sales volume was 44, vehicles, with a drop of 54.4%. Among them, the production and sales of new energy passenger cars are expected to be 35, and 39,. In January, the car sales volume was significantly higher than the output, indicating that the inventory was relatively sufficient in December before, which can also greatly alleviate the impact of the delay in starting in February, and the dealer's inventory can still be adhered to in the short term.
because the epidemic mainly broke out in late January, it had little impact on January sales. Talking about the main reasons for the decline in production and sales, the China Automobile Association said that this year's Spring Festival holiday is in January, and the effective working day is 17 days, which is 5 days less than last year; Other units have holidays in advance, so fewer effective working days are also the reasons for the decline in production and sales. However, the new coronary pneumonia epidemic has disrupted the normal operation rhythm of the industry, and in the short term, the production and sales of automobiles will be greatly impacted, and the spare parts supply system will be disrupted. In the long run, the "butterfly effect" of the epidemic will gradually emerge.
The sales market is completely different from the stock market
As can be seen from the data, the decline of new energy vehicles is the most obvious, only reaching half of the same period last year. New energy vehicles and traditional high-end vehicles will be the vehicles most affected by the epidemic, because the sales of these vehicles are concentrated in big cities, which happen to be the cities most affected by the epidemic.
In fact, since the second half of 219 (July), the new energy auto market has experienced a substantial decline in sales due to the sharp decline in subsidies. This negative impact has not dissipated until January, and it has been hit by another round of the epidemic, which is even worse. The impact of the epidemic on the automobile market in January is limited, and the real impact will be shown in February and beyond. From this point of view, the sales of new energy vehicles in February may continue to decline. However, unlike the decadent temperament of new energy in sales, the concept stocks of new energy vehicles represented by Tesla have become the focus of global market attention. Recently, the fourth quarterly report of 219 released by Tesla is amazing. With the red-hot financial report, Tesla's share price is also riding the dust, and it has successfully become the second largest car company in the world with a total market value second only to Toyota.
with the good news of Tesla's resumption of work, the theme of new energy vehicles has become the hottest theme in the market, which has enabled the Tesla plate, which has continued to strengthen recently, to achieve the effect of aerial refueling. The Tesla concept has once again set off a daily limit, and related stocks such as Asia Pacific Technology, Yinbang, Huachangda, Wencan and Xusheng have collectively daily limit. At the same time, new energy automobile funds are intensively entering the market, vying to stand on the cusp.
Long-term stable development will not change
However, at present, the demand for car purchase and consumption capacity in the market are directly weakened, the hidden danger of capital chain breakage of small and medium-sized enterprises is further increased, and automobile export is also becoming more difficult. The author believes that the auto market, especially the new energy sector, will show a trend of low before and high after the whole year, and the market is not optimistic throughout the year. After the epidemic, the restrained consumer demand will be released in a short time, and the automobile market will usher in a short consumption peak.
this peak period is in great need of policy guidance. On February 1th, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Decision on Revision (Draft for Comment)", which canceled the review requirements for the "design and development capability" of enterprises, added the requirements for the "technical support capability" of enterprises, and publicly collected opinions. This is excellent news for subsidies for new energy vehicles that have been determined not to completely decline. Moreover, it is not ruled out that a more vigorous stimulus policy will be launched again. The author firmly believes that the epidemic has brought short-term impact on the economy, and will not change the long-term stable development trend. The fundamentals of China's economic growth will be maintained, which is extremely important for the development of the automobile industry. As of February 12th, 59 of the 183 domestic vehicle production bases have started to resume production. Of all the production bases, 43.7% of the factories will resume work from February 1th to February 16th, and another 39.3% will resume work from February 17th to 23rd.
in the second half of the year, traditional auto companies, especially multinational auto giants, will launch a new product launch war, especially the entry of heavyweight players such as Volkswagen MEB platform electric vehicles, or it will produce a new car-driven effect to enhance certain production and sales growth. If the epidemic does affect the research and development and launch speed of new products of domestic independent brand car companies, then both traditional enterprises and new forces will almost lose their short-term bonus period in the auto market and have a head-on collision with joint venture cars. In 221, Volkswagen MEB will have a real production capacity of one million units. The pure electric vehicles of giants such as General Motors and Ford will be put into the China market, and the leading car companies such as Tesla may even produce 3, units a year in China. In other words, 22 is the last chance for domestic auto companies to seize the new energy market.
people evaluate cars
in p>22, there will be more and more sufficient technical reserves and more and more abundant market choices. And increasingly brutal competition. For car companies, opportunities are born in challenges.
This article comes from the author of Chejia, car home, and does not represent car home's standpoint.