There is an 80% probability of an increase before and after National Day. By chance, I heard that A-shares have had an amazing pattern in the past ten years, that is, the stock market has performed very well before and after National Day!

How good is that?

In the past ten years, in the week before the National Day holiday, prices rose seven times out of 10; in the first week after the holiday, prices rose eight times out of 10 times.

Of course, eight increases in the past ten years does not mean that the probability of an increase is 80%.

Statistically speaking, this is far from the required sample size for statistics.

You should understand this.

However, we only have a stock market with a history of several decades. Even if you include more than 20 years, the sample is still not enough.

In this case, we can subjectively guess from a logical level whether there is any logical support for the eight rises out of ten.

What I can think of is that 2005-2007 itself was a big trend.

After 2009, U.S. monetary policy had a huge impact on global stock markets, and the Federal Reserve held an interest rate meeting in mid-to-late September.

We just experienced it last week. The picture below is last year’s Fed interest rate schedule.

I remember that after the National Day in 2010, non-ferrous stocks drove the stock market to soar, which was also the second round of quantitative easing in the United States.

The second possibility is that around the National Day, stock market news is generally warmer. I believe this is easy to understand. The third possibility is from the game level. Most people start selling before the National Day holiday, and the selling pressure really comes during the National Day week.

Maybe it’s not that big. In fact, I should feel this way before the Mid-Autumn Festival this year.

Then, after the long holiday, this part of the funds will flow back. This logic is actually a bit like the Spring Festival holiday.

Before and after the Spring Festival holiday, A-shares have very obvious patterns. I wrote an article last year.

However, if we look at the data before 2005, that is, not only the data of the last 10 years, we will find that in fact, the probability of the stock market performing well in the week before and the week after National Day is not that high. One of my guesses is that starting from 2006

Before the great bull market, the stock market as a whole was a relatively niche market, dominated by professionals and heavy investors.

This kind of travel by ordinary people has a relatively small impact on the market.

In addition, Golden Week only started in 1999, so maybe the habit of traveling is still slowly forming.

Therefore, in the first few long holidays, this capital tide was not so obvious.

To sum up, in any case, the performance in the last ten years before and after October 1 has some logical support.

But it's far from scientific statistics, so just give it a reference.

In actual operation, you still have to follow your own trading system.

Five dimensions reveal new paths for major investments. Recently, A-shares have been in a weak and volatile situation due to the game of existing funds. In this regard, analysts said that the lack of incremental funds entering the market and the tightening of supervision have put pressure on risk appetite again, and the rise of small-cap stocks has

Exposure is weak, industrial capital is under pressure to reduce holdings, expectations of RMB depreciation are resurrected, and liquidity will face short-term pressure. Against this background, the flow of funds and operational layout have once again become the focus of attention from all parties.

Today, in the form of a special topic, we will explore the latest trends in mainstream funds from five paths: block trading, Shanghai Stock Connect, Dragon and Tiger List, industrial capital, and margin trading, for the reference of investors.

One large transaction: Since September, the average daily transaction volume has been 81, an increase of 30% month-on-month. During this period when the market maintained a box-like shock pattern, the volume of large-scale transactions also declined compared with before.

According to statistics from the Securities Daily Market Research Center, the volume of block transactions in August dropped to 47.18 billion yuan, ending the previous three consecutive months of rising trends. As of now, the volume of block transactions in the month is still hovering at 46.6 billion yuan.

about.

From an industry perspective, as of September 22, the real estate industry ranked first with a monthly bulk transaction volume of 4.702 billion yuan, followed closely by the electronics industry, with a month-to-month bulk transaction volume of 4.582 billion yuan, and the machinery and equipment and chemical industry.

The transaction volume of large transactions in the industry during the month was also more than 4 billion yuan, with transactions of 4.498 billion yuan and 4.497 billion yuan respectively. The transaction volume of large transactions in the non-banking finance and computer industries also reached 3.981 billion yuan and 3.879 billion yuan respectively.

In terms of individual stocks, as of September 22, ***388 stocks have appeared on the block trading platform, and a total of 1,134 block transactions have been completed, with an average of 81 transactions per day, an increase of approximately 30% from August.

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Judging from the number of times the above-mentioned stocks have appeared on the block trading platform, since September as of September 22, ***15 stocks have had block trades of 10 or more times. Midea Group has the highest number of block trades, reaching 47 times. Uoxin

The number of block transactions for Tourism and *ST Shanshui were 39 and 20 times respectively. In addition, the stocks with block transactions reaching or exceeding 10 times during the period include Greenland Holdings, Jiai Technology, Blu-ray Development, Meinian Health, and Electric Power Research Institute

, Huangshi Group, Liuzhou Pharmaceutical, Leyard, SAIC, Ruimaotong, Yabang Co., Ltd., Jingfeng Pharmaceutical.