What do you mean? You have to have a sense of the big-scale industry trends that represent the future direction.
You see, after the callback in the first quarter, the new energy vehicle Laotie returned strongly:
Look at this new energy vehicle-related fund, and the net value of active and passive products has reached a new high. Do you still get this reward in the car?
Lao Fen knows that we have been talking about the new energy vehicle fund since the end of 20 19.
Poke "the second chance next year: new energy vehicles, which of the three industry index funds is stronger?" 》
"Suddenly rebound, is it better for new energy auto funds to choose passive index or active fund? 》
What do five fund managers think of the six new energy vehicle theme funds that have quietly rebounded?
If you have confidence in the trend of the industry, you can choose the index fund of the track to take a ride, and the income is also considerable.
In terms of active funds for active new energy vehicles, the cumulative net value of many funds has also reached a record high, representing the excellent cumulative return of products.
Among them, we see that the theme of Oriental new energy vehicles was established the earliest, which was established at the end of 20 1 1, with the highest cumulative return of 3.6 times; Among the products established one after another, Harvest Smart Car, which was established at the beginning of 20 16, has accumulated nearly three times of return, and its net value has recently reached a new high.
From the perspective of management time, Yao Zhipeng, who has been at the helm of the theme fund for the longest time, is also known as the "Brother of New Energy Vehicles" and has served for more than 5 years:
But it's still an old problem. After the rise, everyone is very concerned about this time. Take profit or increase holdings?
Don't worry, a great advantage is that many fund managers have personal self-media accounts, which can directly see the sharing of recent views.
I summarized some opinions of Yao Zhipeng, a professional "old company", from public information, including reports published by fund managers and Weibo:
1, this is a large-scale industrial trend. It is predicted that in the next 10 year, there will be a large-scale trend in this industry, similar to the popularity of the Internet in that year.
2. Investment should firmly embrace the trend of big industries, and choice is more important than hard work. We are at the beginning of the global industrial cycle of new energy vehicles and smart cars.
3. The core factor of the new energy automobile industry trend is the penetration rate. In 2020, the global penetration rate will be 5%. Historically, once this new industry permeability curve crosses the dividing line of 10%, it tends to increase exponentially, and it will quickly reach 50%-70% in 5-7 years, which is equivalent to facing an industry with a beta of 5 to 10 times in 5 years.
Last year, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Europe exceeded 65,438+00%. The data shows that the penetration rate of electric vehicles in China reached 12% in February1May. The next observation point is the new energy vehicle market in America. When all major markets exceed 10%, we can imagine what kind of industrial explosion the world will enter.
The national planning target is 20% in 2025. With the increasing penetration rate, it greatly exceeded the expectations of the most optimistic participants in the market at the beginning of the year. And according to this trend, the optimistic penetration rate is expected to see 40-50% in 2025.
6. The next big development logic of new energy vehicles is the positive feedback process of "good supply stimulates demand, good demand is further fed back, and supply is further iterated".
7. At the same time, the short-term penetration rate is also affected by factors such as the lack of the core of the industrial chain. Subsequently, with the easing of the supply bottleneck, new models are continuously introduced, and the production, sales and penetration rate are expected to significantly reach a higher level. From the perspective of industrial trends, it is still a good long-term opportunity.
8. The first half is the beta feast of the times, and index funds can also share the benefits, followed by gradual differentiation, and the benefits of each link are different. For example, after 20 15, there will be a big gap between an excellent enterprise in an industry and a very ordinary enterprise.
9. The assets in this large-scale trend will inevitably bring great fluctuations due to the large space. For example, the fluctuations in recent years are not small.
10, for this kind of assets, from the investment point of view, there are roughly two strategies. It is also necessary to match the risk preferences and investment habits of each investor.
One is more Buddhist. For example, we are optimistic about this industry trend. As long as the industrial trend has not come to an end, we will adopt the method of fixed investment of theme funds, or make fixed investment at an appropriate time.
If you think the market is not so hot, invest more. The market is a little hot, such as investing every month or reinvesting a little colder. Since it is a long-term trend, we should focus on the results after a long period.
1 1. On the other hand, if you are not such a determined investor, such as those who are more thoughtful when the market fluctuates, it is actually more appropriate to buy some all-market funds. Balanced allocation of industries in the whole market will relatively reduce fluctuations.
As a class representative, let me sum up,
2) The characteristics of emerging industries will be more changeable. With the historical high and the pressure of subsequent liquidity returning to normal, the follow-up is more about choosing good companies with matching cost performance and companies that need to continue to exceed expectations. Active fund managers have an advantage.
3) volatility is great, but it is difficult to grasp the timing. What should I do? I think if there is a short-term demand for funds, or if the profit-taking goal has been achieved, we can arrange it according to our own financial situation.
4) But this is a long-term track, and it is still worth taking the opportunity to enter. This industry track is more suitable for long-term investment for several years. If there is no demand for funds, hold on to it. If you are optimistic about the new energy car track for a long time, don't think about short-term games and expect long-term highs.