The Board of Directors of the Federal Reserve ended its two-day monetary policy meeting on the 27th, and announced that it would keep the federal funds rate in the target range of 0-0.25%, which was in line with the general market expectation.
At the same time, weak demand and the earlier drop in oil prices have curbed the rise in consumer prices. The overall financial situation is still loose. This is in stark contrast to the report of the Federal Reserve in June 5438+February 2020, when the Federal Reserve believed that the American economy was "recovering continuously".
According to the analysis, this may indicate that Fed officials do not know how long this uncertainty will last.
At the press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Bauer pointed out that the resilience of the economy, including housing, financial services and other industries, should adopt new technologies and strategies to adapt to the COVID-19 epidemic.
But before the crisis is alleviated, a large part of the labor force may still be unemployed. Powell said that if people can't return to work in time because of the epidemic, the economy can't fully recover.
The Federal Reserve said that it would continue to buy 80 billion US dollars of treasury bonds and 40 billion US dollars of mortgage-backed securities every month, and reiterated that it would continue to buy assets until the US economy made substantial progress, and would continue to maintain a highly loose monetary policy until the goal of price stability and full employment was achieved.
Under the epidemic, the American economy is still under great pressure. According to the data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on the 27th, the new order amount of durable goods in June 5438+February 2020 increased by 0.2% month-on-month, which was significantly lower than the market expectation of 1% and the upward revision of1.2%.
The GDP growth rate of the United States in the fourth quarter of last year was 4%, the annual GDP growth rate was -3.5%, and the annual GDP growth rate hit a 74-year low.
According to the analysis, the purchasing power of American consumers fell sharply in June 5438+February last year, and the number of new non-agricultural employment turned positive for the first time since April. In addition, the retail sales data decreased month by month, indicating that the weak job market may weaken consumers' purchasing power. The quarterly rate of personal consumption expenditure increased by 2.5% compared with the previous quarter, far lower than the previous value of 4 1%.
Lewis Alexander, an economist at Nomura Securities, believes that the fourth quarter GDP report highlights the sustained recovery of the US economy in 2020, but the recovery momentum will face a significant decline in 20021.
The recovery in the euro zone is slow.
Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, said at the "Davos Agenda" Dialogue of the World Economic Forum a few days ago that from the economic data of the fourth quarter of last year, the economic recovery process in the euro zone has been delayed. The epidemic continues to affect the production and non-production sectors in the euro zone, and the R&D expenditure of enterprises has also declined due to the epidemic.
The epidemic has not only had a positive impact on economic transformation, but also brought challenges. On the one hand, digitalization and telecommuting have made progress, and all parties have paid more attention to dealing with climate change; On the other hand, the actual unemployment level has risen, especially the unemployment risk of low-skilled workers has increased significantly.
Germany, the locomotive of European economy, lowered its economic growth forecast to 3.0% this year due to stricter epidemic restrictions, which was lower than the expected growth of 4.4% in September last year.
According to the annual economic report released by the German Federal Ministry of Economy and Energy on the 27th, it is estimated that the economy will not return to the level before the outbreak until mid-2022.
According to a report released by GfK, a German market research institute, the leading index of German consumer confidence in February was-15.6 points, which was 8. 1 point lower than the adjusted final value.
Rolf Buerkkle, an expert at GfK, said that the consumption environment in Germany will face a difficult period in the first quarter of this year. Only when the number of new infections in the epidemic has dropped significantly, and then the prevention and control measures have been relaxed, can consumer confidence be restored.
According to the analysis, the purchasing managers' index PMI of IHS Markit on the 22nd showed that the degree of German economic weakness was increasing in 2002 1 year, and the comprehensive PMI in1month dropped 1.2 to 50.8 points, making it the only country among the major European economies that was above the 50 boom line. However, the comprehensive PMI of the whole euro zone in June 5438+ 10 was only 47.5, and it is inevitable that there will be another technical recession.
The European Central Bank hinted that it would cut interest rates further.
On the 27th, Nott, governor of the Dutch central bank and member of the European Central Bank Management Committee, said that the epidemic crisis should not be allowed to turn into a financial crisis. In order to keep the inflation target from derailing, the European Central Bank has not touched the lower limit of interest rates, and may consider further lowering the already negative interest rates. If the financial situation deteriorates due to market pressure, the European Central Bank will take action.
Nott said that the European Central Bank is monitoring the strength of the euro. If necessary, the ECB has the tools to cope with the appreciation of the euro, and the ECB is also fully considering the financing situation. If a strong euro threatens the inflation outlook, this will become the top priority of the European Central Bank.
ECB officials believe that the market has underestimated the possibility of interest rate cuts.