1 analysis background
1. 1 The first round of returning farmland to forests in Sichuan Province has gone through four stages: pilot demonstration, comprehensive start-up, adjustment and adaptation, and consolidation of results [2], involving more than 6 million farmers in 2 1 city (state) 178 counties (cities, districts), and has completed returning farmland to forests. By 20 12, the economic benefit area of returning farmland to forests will be 640,200 hm2. 200 1, Yang Xiyue [3] and Li Xianwei [4] thought about the issues related to the conversion of farmland to forests and the adjustment of industrial structure, and both put forward the idea of developing characteristic industries. In 2006, Shuaike et al. [5] systematically analyzed the main development mode and mechanism, successful experience and existing problems of returning farmland to forests in Sichuan Province from the perspective of follow-up industries. In 2009, Zhang Hongming and others [6] summarized the planting types (more than 30 kinds), business models (9 kinds) and business mechanisms (6 kinds) of returning farmland to forests in Sichuan, and thought that the follow-up industrial system of returning farmland to forests covering the quantity and quality, scale and benefit of primary and secondary industries was initially formed. 20 1 1 du Wanquan [7] proposed that the project of returning farmland to forests has cultivated a large number of forest products resources. With the passage of time and the strengthening of management, the resources of various forest products will continue to increase, which will certainly enhance the stamina of industrial development.
1.2 Follow-up industries and county economy "The country should be ecological, the localities should develop, and the farmers should increase their income" and "Retreat, stand firm and not rebound" vividly express the game relationship among farmers, local governments and the central government in the construction of returning farmland to forests [8]. Wang Xiaolong [9] pointed out that it is difficult to ensure stable incentive compatibility in the implementation of the project, and farmers' self-interest behavior will deviate from social and ecological interests at least in three cases: multiple economic forests, intercropping or replanting, and less investment, thus making the policy of returning farmland to forests deviate from social optimality. After comparing the policies of returning farmland to forests in developing countries and developed countries, Liu Dongsheng and others think that the demand for ecological improvement (returning farmland to forests) generated by economic growth will ultimately be met by economic growth. He Jiali and others [1 1] think that we should give full play to the resource advantage of "taking natural areas as a unit" and overcome the phenomenon of explicit ecological benefits and implicit economic benefits in the project of returning farmland to forests. Cui Shaofang [12] studied the coupling between commodity eco-agriculture and the project of returning farmland to forests, and thought that the implementation of the project of returning farmland to forests and the consolidation of its effect were also affected by the development of commodity eco-agriculture for a long time to some extent. Liu Yaosen [13] thinks that returning farmland to forests must correctly understand and handle four core relationships: first, the relationship between returning farmland to forests and the adjustment of agricultural industrial structure; Second, the relationship between returning farmland to forests and the development of subsequent industries; Third, the relationship between returning farmland to forests and increasing farmers' income; Fourth, the relationship between returning farmland to forests and the construction of small towns. Yang Ming and others believe that it is necessary to strengthen the combination of government macro-control and market regulation, guide farmers to actively develop follow-up industries, accumulate industrial development funds, improve farmers' organization, develop industrial belts, build a reasonable industrial chain, and promote the healthy development of follow-up industries. Returning farmland to forests has changed the mode of land production and undertaken the process of natural reproduction and socio-economic reproduction based on biology. The county economy in the returning farmland area is an agricultural economy with the county as the center, the towns as the link and the countryside as the hinterland. Basic production resources include natural resources, geographical location, climatic conditions and primary labor. The development of county economy not only needs to promote the optimal allocation of internal resources, production factors and markets, but also needs to break through the shackles of county-level administrative divisions and make full use of various resources, production factors and markets outside the county. Zheng Xungang made a SWOT analysis of the basic characteristics of the county economic development in the area of returning farmland to forests in Sichuan, and summarized the organizational operation mode, regional mode and industrial mode of the county economic development in the area of returning farmland to forests in Sichuan. The county-level coordinated development model represented by Jianyang City in Zhao Zhiyuan is characterized by the coordinated development of agriculture, industry and commerce, production, supply and marketing, and urban and rural economy. The formation process of this model is generally based on the developer's character agriculture, starting with the establishment of agricultural product processing industry and then expanding the agricultural product processing chain. Including vertical industrial chain (the development of agricultural products from rough processing to deep processing and finishing) and horizontal industrial chain (packaging industry, sales industry, transportation industry and other service industries supporting agricultural products processing industry). To sum up, the author thinks that the stock of industrial resources formed by the first round of returning farmland to forests in Sichuan has become an important local agricultural and forestry industrial resource and should play its due role in the county economy. The geographical distribution of resources, the difference of socio-economic basis, the diversity and isomorphism of species affect the industrial value of stock resources, so it is necessary to make a comparative analysis and research on the industrial base advantages (species scale) of stock resources among counties.
1.3 The analysis method determines the types of industrial bases according to the investigation caliber of the follow-up industries of returning farmland to forests in China. Collect the statistical data of the follow-up industry survey of returning farmland to forests in Sichuan province in 20 12 and the statistical data of the annual report of forestry industry in Sichuan province in 20 13. It is assumed that the (relatively) large expected income of the same tree species within the city and state is regarded as the annual "fair value" of the first production unit area of the tree species base under the conditions of regional industrialization, so as to avoid the time sequence, geographical distribution and socio-economic differences in the realization of tree species value. The potential value of the first production of related tree species bases is calculated based on the scale of forestry industrial bases (including returning farmland to forests) in the 20 13 annual report. Using the first output value in the annual report of forestry industry in 20 13 and the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery in Sichuan statistical yearbook in that year, the coordination coefficient of agriculture and forestry in each county was calculated. Using the method of location quotient analysis in regional economics, this paper analyzes the location advantages of rural economic development in industrial varieties and raw material bases. If lqij > 1, it is considered that I species (raw material forest) has a comparative advantage in the rural economic development of J county (city, state). The larger the value, the greater the comparative advantage, or the higher the level of industrial specialization or specialization. If LQij≤ 1, it is only used for the production of self-sufficient goods within the county.
2 Results and analysis
2. 1 Location analysis of raw material base
2. 1. 1 Analysis of base forest volume. By the end of 20 13, the scale of forestry industrial base in Sichuan Province had reached 83 1 10,000 hm2, and the basic structure of base types was less affected by the project of returning farmland to forests, with only two types of variation exceeding 1%, indicating that there was "path dependence" in the selection of tree species for returning farmland to forests. "Path dependence" makes the resources formed by returning farmland to forests naturally integrate into the existing industrial bases in this area. Returning farmland to forests has not participated in the construction of rare timber forest bases since 2007, and has made great contributions to the scale of various bases. Among them, the contribution rate of characteristic economic forest and bamboo shoot industry shows that returning farmland to forest has a rich and perfect effect on forestry industry (see table 1).
2. 1.2 The production and operation of raw material bases with geographical advantages in the county is the primary industry of forestry, with the characteristics of resource-intensive and labor-intensive, and is an important part of the rural economy in the county. The location quotient of basic output value measures the basic advantages of the development of related industries, relative to the local rural economic development. Based on the above assumptions, we estimate that the potential annual output value of the forestry industrial base in Sichuan Province (excluding the general timber forests that are not converted from farmland to forests) is1716.02 million yuan, and the relevant potential annual output value of the counties with advantageous business development is1367.53 million yuan. The potential output value of related raw material bases in dominant counties accounts for 69.9% ~ 98.5% of the corresponding output value in the whole province. Taking this ratio as the regional aggregation index of industrial base, the order is biomass energy forest > edible oil forest > forest vegetables > bamboo for bamboo shoots > medicinal materials forest > characteristic economic forest > beverage forest > aromatic forest > rare timber forest > timber bamboo > industrial raw material forest > dried fruit forest > mulberry and others > general timber forest. Taking the product of the potential annual output value and the county location advantage as the industrial development advantage, Table 2 lists the relevant counties before the industrial development advantage of each raw material forest type 10.
2. 1.3 analysis of secondary production structure According to the theory of industrial structure, the process of economic development is also the process of industrial structure adjustment and upgrading, and secondary production is the driving force of industrial upgrading. In 20 13, there were 6,658 forest products processing enterprises in Sichuan province, but only 39 1 enterprises were large, and there were 124 leading enterprises with an output value exceeding 100 million yuan, which showed that the general processing ratio was large, the proportion of high value-added products was low, technological transformation and progress did not make great progress, and the industrial structure was slowly upgraded. The proportion of output value of forestry primary, secondary and tertiary industries is 37.9 ∶ 34.9 ∶ 27.2 [17], and the industry still mainly provides raw materials and products, belonging to a lower-level industrial structure. Based on the intensive nature of forestry industrial resources and the connotation of Sichuan industrial resources, we think that the linkage change between primary and secondary industries is not obvious for a long time. Based on the proportional relationship between primary production and secondary production of forestry in each county in 20 13, the potential output value of secondary production of various industrial bases is estimated, and the processing capacity is assumed to be the design capacity of existing scale enterprises, so as to analyze the structural state of secondary production. Large-scale enterprises represent the modernization level of the industry, and their contribution is the basis of secondary production upgrading. From the analysis in Table 3, it can be seen that the potential annual output value of forestry industrial resources in Sichuan is 654.38+049.972 billion yuan, of which the contribution rate of existing scale enterprises is 47%. Solid wood processing capacity meets the needs of upstream and downstream markets; The industrial processing capacity represented by fiberboard is surplus, which is subject to the upstream raw material market; The processing capacity of bamboo industry represented by bamboo pulping is insufficient, which restricts the production and utilization of raw material stock; The processing scale of economic forest oriented by high value-added products is still in a low starting range. The upgrading of Sichuan forestry secondary production structure lies in the breakthrough of bamboo processing capacity (capital-intensive) and the innovative research and development of high value-added products (technology-intensive) of economic forests.
2.2 Industrial species positioning analysis
2.2. 1 analysis of species location advantages The project of returning farmland to forests involves more than species 100 [6], and 4 1 species is included in the statistics of industrial resources. Economic forest has always been the focus of returning farmland to forest, and the choice of things (goods) is also the most active. Among the 25 economic forest species with industrial endowment in Sichuan, walnut is the most widely distributed and olive is the narrowest. Correlation location analysis shows that pear is the most important tree species in this county. The number of dominant counties expresses the natural geographical attributes of species, and the species below 30 counties with regional advantages have obvious regional characteristics, such as olives and mangoes. According to the development strategy made by using the ratio of the number of dominant counties to the number of distributed counties, the proportion of developing regional characteristic economic forests is ≥75%, the proportion of professional development is 50%-75%, and the proportion of general development is < 50%. Based on the convergence conditions of the first three kinds of counties, we can analyze the dominant county scale of a single industrial base, and Zanthoxylum bungeanum, pear, walnut and citrus rank in the top three. Taking the product of species potential output value and county location advantage as the industrial development advantage, the ranking of development advantages is more consistent with the actual situation.
2.2.2 Analysis of the market of tree species industry: The forestry industry resources in Sichuan involve 177 counties, 4 1 tree species, and there are 2684 tree species combinations in the counties. Borrow the standard of scale output value of secondary production enterprises, and classify them by county and species respectively. As can be seen from Table 5, regardless of whether it has the advantage of location quotient, each output value scale has county (species) distribution. On the contrary, it does not have the advantage of location quotient, and its output value is large. In fact, location quotient reflects the comparative advantages of all developing species in the county to the rural economy, and the combination of output value scale and location advantage can better express the industrial development advantages of species in the whole province. The output value of species in different counties is different, and the market emphasis of resource value realization is also different. A-level has the scale of resources to participate in inter-provincial and international exchanges, and has become or has become a pillar industry in the county. We can cultivate or join regional industrial clusters according to the basic pattern of professional division of labor in national industrial zones, and participate in regional, national and even international economic cycles with specialization, scale and branding, such as lemons, walnuts and oranges. Class B has the scale of resources to form leading industries or advantageous industries in the county. Cultivating leading enterprises is to realize the gathering of regional resources, and participate in the market circulation in the province with intermediate products or characteristic products of large regional industrial chains, such as timber forests, bamboo shoots and olives. Class C stores resources outside the export domain, increases support for rooted enterprises that increase the added value of agricultural products, and supplies primary products or primary processed agricultural products to the local market, which is suitable for all kinds of fruits. Class D resources that basically meet the local demand belong to traditional agricultural production, and should participate in the trading of farmers' markets in the region with the original products.
3 Problems and discussions
(1) The county economy in the area of returning farmland to forests is an agricultural economy. "Optimizing and upgrading the agricultural industrial structure, adjusting the rural economic structure and increasing farmers' income to get rich" needs to attach importance to and evaluate the industrial endowment of forestry resources represented by returning farmland to forests from the perspective of developing county economy. County economy is the most direct operating platform of "five overall plans", the key to regional competitiveness and the important foundation of economic development and social stability. The development of county economy lies in making full use of the advantages of location and resources to select and cultivate leading industries, giving play to the correlation effect and diffusion effect of leading industries, and promoting the coordinated development of the whole county economy. (2) "Scattering small families and contacting big bases" vividly describes the management pattern of forestry industry resources represented by returning farmland to forests. The production of farmers who are naturally weak is mainly in the form of small-scale peasant management, with weak self-accumulation and self-development ability. If the agriculture and forestry industry wants to surpass the traditional economic status, it must be "connected to the grid" to realize the industrialized utilization of resources. "Networking" is the focus of county economic development, and an industrialized management system including leading agricultural enterprises, farmers' professional cooperatives and large rural operators should be established to adapt to the social and economic development of returning farmland to areas. At present, we should pay attention to the role of professional cooperatives in improving farmers' self-organization, carrying out primary processing of products, bringing farmers scale benefits and value-added benefits of agricultural products processing. (3) In 2065438+04, China started a new round of construction project of returning farmland to forests. On the basis of meeting the needs of ecological management, farmers have a high degree of species selection. The analysis of this paper shows that many species have traditional management value, but from the perspective of industrial utilization, they do not have development advantages for two reasons: first, the backward processing capacity in the region brings limited resource market; Second, developing other species in the same area has greater advantages in rural economic value. Both of them are to be avoided in the new round of returning farmland to forests, to prevent excessive resources or short-sighted species. (4) The location quotient analysis method of regional economics belongs to the category of geographical economics. As the analysis and evaluation of plant resources, it should be analyzed from the perspective of plant geography. Although this paper analyzes the location advantages of the existing forestry industry resources in Sichuan Province, the concept of "potential output value" is debatable due to the limitation of data.