The European Central Bank has launched a series of easing measures, lowered the three major interest rates, expanded the QE scope to 8 billion euros per month, and planned a new round of long-term targeted refinancing operation (TLTRO) for four years, starting from June 216. However, financial markets are always unpredictable, and you never know what will happen in the next second.

After the European Central Bank announced a series of stimulus measures that exceeded market expectations, the global market was shocked, and the euro plunged nearly 1 points against the US dollar. The RMB also fell sharply, the US dollar index rose rapidly, the European stoxx5 rose 2.25%, and the US stock index futures rose.

However, the market was severely "tricked" by ECB President Delacquis. At the subsequent press conference, Mario Draghi hinted that he would not cut interest rates again, which triggered a wave of euro short covering operation in the market. The euro staged a "deep V" reversal against the US dollar, with an increase of nearly 2%. The trend of gold and European and American stock indexes also showed a shocking reversal.

The interest rate cut in Europe can be said to be the biggest redistribution of wealth since World War II. Numerous big V's in Weibo have also called for the spring of A-shares, but the lone ranger of A-shares doesn't seem to buy it today. In early trading, the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower by nearly 1% and fell below 2,8 points. At noon, it broke through 28 points several times and then fell back. Near the closing of the banking and brokerage sectors, the supporting plate stretched, and the trading volume began to increase, but it was still difficult to change the state of low trading throughout the day.

how long will global monetary policy deviate?

among the central banks, the European Central Bank is the second largest "money printing factory" in the world, but it is such a super financial institution that plays an important role in the global financial market, but it has not been able to come up with effective measures to deal with the increasingly serious deflation problem in Europe.

Draghi said that these QE measures will strengthen the economic recovery momentum of the euro zone. However, the market expects that the average economic growth rate of 19 countries in the euro zone will be reduced from 1.7% in December to 1.4% in 216, 1.7% in 217 and 1.8% in 218.

Although Draghi said that there is no need to cut interest rates again, and his focus will shift to non-traditional tools, and denied that the European Central Bank is not "killing each other" in the global interest rate, and expanding asset purchases is not interfering in the foreign exchange market, this time the European Central Bank's resolution has left no stone unturned, and its unexpected easing has also caused a key question in the market: How long can the Federal Reserve's monetary policy deviate from the European Central Bank?

Market participants believe that the large-scale QE stimulus policy of the European Central Bank will prompt other central banks on the road of easing to follow suit. In particular, the Bank of Japan is likely to further expand the stimulus in July. The "prophetic" New Zealand Federal Reserve may have expected the European Central Bank to expand its easing, and unexpectedly cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% before the European Central Bank acted. In this regard, the New Zealand dollar fell sharply against the US dollar. Just last month, New Zealand Federal Reserve President Wheeler also said that he was not in a hurry to cut interest rates for the time being.

In a few days, the Federal Reserve will hold a meeting on interest rates in March. In view of the mixed data and deteriorating external environment in the United States, most economists and interest rate market traders expect the Fed to stay put in March. Now the market is more concerned about how the Fed will evaluate the economic prospects of the United States at this meeting, and the market is increasingly convinced that it is not suitable to force interest rate hikes when the Fed may return to easing measures next.

However, at present, the global market is at the end of a round of easing cycle and at different stages of the re-inflation cycle. Once the Fed decides to raise interest rates in March, it is likely to trigger another strong shock in global asset prices.

It will also face a huge test for RMB exchange rate. On the one hand, the expansion of overseas negative interest rates is beneficial to RMB appreciation, but the uncertainty of the Fed's interest rate hike still puts periodic pressure on RMB depreciation. Since the RMB exchange rate greatly affects the flow of domestic funds, exchange rate fluctuations will also affect A shares and the domestic real estate market. Once the dollar raises interest rates, it will inevitably aggravate the domestic economic turmoil.