Review opinion

Reflections on 0 1 Market Hotspots

Overall trends and styles

Liquidity or fundamental comparative advantage is a necessary condition for small and medium-sized growth in structured markets. This week, the CSI 1000 futures contract was listed and traded. Compared with other major broad-based indexes in the current market, small and medium-sized (5-20 billion) stocks in CSI 1000 account for a higher proportion. From the perspective of industry distribution, the proportion of traditional industries is obviously low, and the proportion of emerging growth and high-end manufacturing is obviously high. In the history of A-share, the dominant period of the growth of SMEs mainly appears in two stages, namely, 2009-20 10 and 20 13-20 15. In these two rounds of market resumption, loose liquidity or relative advantage of fundamentals is a necessary condition for small and medium-sized growth to dominate. In 2009-20 10, the global market was in the stage of excess liquidity after the crisis. The fundamentals bottomed out, driving the market sentiment to rise rapidly. The growth of high-elastic small and medium-sized market value ran out of obvious excess returns. However, the liquidity environment is not a necessary condition for the relative growth of the market. A typical case appeared in 20 13. Although there is a shortage of funds in different degrees in the liquidity environment of the market, the rising cycle of the electronics industry has led to a substantial increase in growth performance, and the strong support of the relative profit advantage has also become the starting point of the 13- 15 bull market.

The advantage is boosted and the main line of growth is approaching. We continue to be optimistic about the structural market of growth in the second half of the year, mainly because of our forecast of the relative performance advantage of growth, the downward trend of global demand, limited rebound of domestic demand, and the flexibility of traditional industries represented by large-cap blue chips is hard to find. In contrast, the performance advantage of growth is expected to be reflected. Combined with our periodic positioning framework, the growth probability is dominant from the late recession to the early expansion. From the logic of recent market operation, we can also see that the importance of molecular logic has increased significantly. The automobile and TMT sectors with outstanding performance this week are all industries with advantages in the second quarterly report, but the proportion of institutional allocation is still at a low level. This also confirms what we mentioned in the medium-term strategy. As the market transitions from pre-recession to post-recession, the main line of market investment will also switch from absolute low valuation to pegging. From the second half of the year, the macro liquidity tone is relatively loose, and the advantages of growth relative to performance are gradually emerging. The shock period will usher in a better layout opportunity.

03 meso-view and industry

This week, the industry rose more and fell less, and the market stabilized and repaired from the short-term adjustment in the previous period. The trend of industries with high prosperity and low valuation and steady growth is relatively balanced. In terms of the transaction ratio, the transaction ratio of Zhou Du with the growth of science and technology (computer/media/communication) has greatly increased, the transaction ratio of growth industries (military industry/machinery) has greatly increased, and the steady growth of financial real estate (bank/construction/non-bank/real estate) and consumption (agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery/medicine/household appliances) has declined to some extent. Statistics show that the rebound distribution of major industry indexes in the market in the past three months and the decline distribution from the beginning of March/the beginning of April to the end of April have obvious linear relationship with the previous decline. 19 industry recovered its decline since the beginning of April, and 1 1 industry achieved positive returns compared with the beginning of March. The number of repair industries increased slightly compared with last week's 18/9.

Compared with other major broad-based indices (SSE 50/ CSI 300/ CSI 500/ GEM Index/Kechuang 50):

1) From the perspective of industry weight, compared with SSE 50/ CSI 300, CSI 1000 has less exposure to the stable public sector of financial real estate, and compared with Kechuang 50/ GEM index, it has less exposure to growth industries, the index style avoids going to extremes, and the overall distribution of industries presents the characteristics of balanced and decentralized growth (boom: TMT): cyclical resources: consumption: consumption.

1) Based on macro signal recognition, Premier Li Keqiang announced in his earlier speech that China's economic growth target is flexible, which dispelled the market's previous doubts about whether China's GDP can continue to reach 5.5% this year. This statement eliminates one of the most important macro-level uncertainties, that is, after the elimination of the upper limit of the economic growth target, the macro-environment or the corresponding economic weak stimulus and weak recovery in the second half of the year will basically fail, which may lead to the failure of pro-business cycle sectors and industries to show obvious performance elasticity in the short and medium term under the background of normalized epidemic and weak stimulus. From the vertical connection of industries, that is, the seesaw effect, the overall prosperity of the whole year may be stock, but the prosperity is scarce (growth)

2) Based on the relative profit growth advantage represented by the logic at the bottom of the industry trend and the stronger profit elasticity of small-cap properties during the profit reversal period (in the 22-year mid-year profit decline period, the large-cap company CSI 100/ CSI 200, represented by the group with a market value of 60-15 billion, still contributed absolute performance growth, and the profits of small-cap companies declined significantly. Q 1-Q2 is also a 20-year performance reversal period, and the profits of small-cap companies increase.

3) At the same time, we also think that the slope of CSI 1000 in the second half of the year is difficult to replicate the sharp rise of March-September 2 1. This is mainly due to the fact that CSI 1000 benefited from the double * * * vibration of periodic resources and high economic growth last year. Looking forward to the second half of the year, the upward elasticity of cyclical resource industry performance is slightly lower or higher than the same period last year.

Weekly market overview, portfolio and hot spot tracking

On July 18, 2023, Huawei officially announced that it would hold a new product launch conference on July 27th, when HarmonyOS System 3.0 ("HarmonyOS System 3.0") and a variety of new terminal products such as mobile phones, smart screens, notebooks, tablets and headphones will be released.

HarmonyOS System 3.0 will be released soon, and the new system is expected to further enhance the market share. 14 In July, Ma Chuanyong, president of Huawei's terminal cloud service payment business group, said in Shenzhen that HarmonyOS OS 3.0 would be officially released at the end of July. In addition to the update of privacy interface, HarmonyOS System 3.0 also added clipboard privacy protection, fuzzy positioning and redesigned App access record interface. At the same time, the system has built-in anti-fraud function, so it can be said that HarmonyOS System 3.0 has greatly improved the privacy protection. In terms of other new functions, HarmonyOS System 3.0 also added a super desktop, a screen lock card, an adjustable folder size and so on.

HarmonyOS system 3.0 eliminated the bloated part of 2.0, and the system was more streamlined. When the new algorithm is used in daily life, HarmonyOS system 3.0 is smoother than 2.0, and more models will be decentralized and more devices will circulate. Judging from the changing trend, in recent years, in the global mobile phone operating system market competition, Android and IOS have occupied a stable leading position, in which the market share of Android has slightly decreased in 2020, while iOS has maintained a continuous growth trend since 20 16, while other operating systems such as Series40 and Samsung are gradually withdrawing from the market.

Thanks to the ecological blessing of HarmonyOS system, Huawei Payment continues to sneak. Although WeChat Pay and Alipay have occupied 90% of the market share, Huawei Pay is still regarded as an important track in the future by Huawei Corps. Recently, Ma Chuanyong, president of Huawei Terminal Cloud Service Payment Group, said that Huawei Payment will explore more scenarios based on HarmonyOS system. Huawei's payment is not to compete with Alipay and WeChat payment, but they are still Huawei's partners. With the introduction of the operating system of HarmonyOS, Huawei Payment is the infrastructure to build the system ecology of HarmonyOS. Huawei pays for mobile phones, smart screens, tablets, computers, cars, multi-terminal and full scene coverage. In the future, Huawei Payment will explore more scenarios based on the HarmonyOS operating system. It can be seen that with the continuous improvement of hardware equipment, mobile payment has begun to expand in different fields, and increasing user stickiness through expanding channels has become a new gameplay for mobile payment. For the head company, the richness of hardware equipment and the integration of more suppliers can quickly lay out more fields.

This system upgrade may bring new opportunities to HarmonyOS system ecological chain market. With the continuous improvement of the whole ecology, HarmonyOS System 3.0 pays more attention to the use of B-side, and HarmonyOS System 3.0 is expected to lay the foundation for Huawei to better implement the "1 8 N" strategy. In order to strengthen the use of B-side, HarmonyOS system has built the ability of distributed collaborative computing and equipment performance, making its own solution safe and reliable, and one-to-many rapid interconnection. At present, it has a large number of ecological partners. In 2020 and 20021year, Huawei donated the basic operating system capability of HarmonyOS system to the Open Atomic Open Source Foundation twice, and the OpenHarmony project was established. After many iterations, it has become a powerful booster for various industries and intelligent terminals to build digital bases. In smart home, Midea released Midea's Internet of Things operating system 1.0 last year, which is the first distributed Internet of Things operating system based on open source HarmonyOS system 2.0 in smart home industry. The system can realize the interconnection of multi-brands and multi-products, and provide a brand-new solution for autonomous cooperation between devices, cloud integration, AI interactive empowerment and other issues. In the financial field, in March this year, Shenkaihong released a distribution version of KaihongOS for the financial industry. Based on open source HarmonyOS system technology, it supports smart POS, cloud speakers, code scanning terminals and other financial payment devices. Super desktop has been used on Huawei's intelligent platform M7. Super Desktop breaks down the barriers between different terminals. Based on the powerful use ecology of mobile phones and Huawei's "parallel vision" technology, the ecological problems of PC and smart car based on HarmonyOS system are further solved, which lays a technical foundation for the comprehensive promotion of HarmonyOS system in multi-terminals. As an important part of HarmonyOS's system layout, in-vehicle intelligent operating system will also be supported by HarmonyOS System 3.0. In HarmonyOS System 3.0, the vehicle-mounted system will become the link between people, cars and homes, and based on the unified operating system and the ability of seamless flow, the more intelligent Internet of Everything will be further realized.

HarmonyOS system, as the light of domestic system, is favored by relevant policies. Local governments have successively introduced measures to support HarmonyOS's systematic industries: On June 30th, Shenzhen Bureau of Industry and Information Technology issued a circular on soliciting opinions on measures to accelerate the cultivation of Euler's ecology in HarmonyOS (draft for comments), proposing to build a global "Euler City of HarmonyOS System" in Shenzhen. The "Several Measures" proposes to encourage open source contributions and open source product development, support distribution enterprises to grow in deep development, support equipment enterprises to purchase Euler modules of HarmonyOS system, and support software enterprises to develop and use Euler modules of HarmonyOS system. Among them, the distribution enterprise with the highest sales of products or services distributed by HarmonyOS System and Euler System will receive a reward of up to 5 million yuan. Also in June this year, Tianjin Municipal People's Government signed a strategic cooperation agreement with China Software International and Shenzhen Kaihong Digital Industry Development Co., Ltd., aiming to build Tianjin into an open source industrial highland of HarmonyOS system with perfect industrial ecology, leading core technologies, rich use scenarios and strong industrial competitiveness, and to build an open source HarmonyOS system in the north.

This article comes from the financial sector.

Related question and answer: What is the stock with the smallest total share capital? The stock market is risky, so you need to be cautious when entering the market. There are many huge stocks in the A-share market. For example, several bank stocks and stocks of PetroChina and Sinopec. The total share capital is hundreds of billions. The market value is also hundreds of billions or even trillions. Of course, there are also a few smaller plates. The total share capital is about 40 million, and there are several scientific and technological editions, 688058 sapphire. 6882 15 Sheng Rui Intelligent, 688229 Bai Rui Data. Shenzhen GEM 300789 Tangyuan Electric. 300553 extreme stock, 300864 Nanda environment. The total share capital of the above stocks is about 40 million. The total market value of AB shares is mostly below 5 billion. But it should also be noted that many stocks have not been listed for a long time. The price-earnings ratio is very high. Beware of performance risks. If it is safe, it is recommended to pay attention to some stocks with good performance and relatively moderate prices, which are relatively low. Recently, the turnover has been enlarged. There are more opportunities in the market. Personally, I suggest paying attention to 000950 Heavy Drugs Holdings. The price-earnings ratio is about 1 1 times. There is the concept of vaccine cold chain. Recently, the volume of transactions has been significantly enlarged. Break through multiple moving averages today. In the future, this stock can be held all the way as long as it does not fall below the 20-day line. Personal opinion, for reference only.