New assessment. Affected by this incident, China Bank shares fell sharply yesterday, and China Merchants Bank was among them. Today, China Merchants Bank announced that it holds Lehman Brothers bonds, even though all bonds have been lost.
It only affects the earnings per share of 0.0324 yuan/share, and the real impact is very small. However, it remains to be seen whether psychologically fragile investors will treat it rationally.
"Lehman Brothers is facing bankruptcy!" -The impact of this news on global stock markets can be described as immediate, but its impact may just begin to appear!
After Huaan Fund Company announced yesterday that its Huaan International Allocation Fund was influenced by Lehman Brothers, today China Merchants Bank (600036, closing price 16.07 yuan) also announced that it was influenced by Lehman Brothers.
Interest, the announcement said that the company holds bonds issued by Lehman Brothers in the United States, amounting to $70 million.
Insiders pointed out that in the face of yesterday's orderly limit of bank stocks, the release of this unfavorable news may be amplified by the market.
Limited substantive impact
Today, China Merchants Bank announced that, as of the announcement date, the company had a $70 million bond exposure issued by Lehman Brothers. Among them, the senior bond is USD 60 million and the subordinated bond is USD 65.438+million.
Dollars. At the same time, the announcement said that the company will assess the risks of the above bonds and draw corresponding impairment reserves according to the principle of prudence.
US$ 70 million-converted into RMB, equivalent to about RMB 477 million. How much impact will this figure have on China Merchants Bank?
If China Merchants Bank impairs the bonds issued by Lehman Brothers by 10%, the loss will be 47.7 million yuan. According to the total share capital of China Merchants Bank of 65.438+04.707 billion shares, the impact on earnings per share will only be
Only 0.0032 yuan/share;
If China Merchants Bank sets aside 50% bad debt reserve for US$ 70 million, the impact on earnings per share is only 0.05438 yuan+0.62 yuan.
Even in the worst case, the total bad debts of $70 million will be recovered, and the impact will only be 0.0324 yuan/share, which is obviously different from the earnings per share of China Merchants Bank in the middle of this year.
The proportion is quite small.
Therefore, national securities analysts believe that although China Merchants Bank has not made corresponding impairment provision for the bonds held by Lehman Brothers, even if this incident is the worst, it will bring substantial impact to China Merchants Bank.
The sound is also quite limited.
The market may overreact.
"The substantial impact is limited!" This is the industry's evaluation of China Merchants Bank's involvement in Lehman Brothers, but will the market treat it rationally?