The rapid popularity of small-cap stock funds is not only because of the decline of large-cap style funds, but also because of the polarization of market style. Since the SSE 50 hit the highest point of 4 1 10 in February last year, the SSE 1000 index, which represents the style of small market capitalization, has outperformed the SSE 50 index by nearly 45 percentage points, especially since July this year. SSE 1000 hit a new high, and SSE 50 returned to its April low again.
Large and small funds are two worlds of ice and fire.
Recently, the issuance of large-cap style funds has been bleak, while the small-cap stock funds that were once rarely talked about have sold well.
On August 12, Zhonggeng Small-cap Value Fund, which had just been open for a week, reopened the "restricted purchase mode". Zhonggeng Fund announced that since August 15, Zhonggeng Small-cap Value Fund has suspended the large subscription of10000000 yuan. Previously, on August 8, the fund just restarted the subscription after nearly a year of suspension.
In this regard, the Securities Times reporter learned from channel sources that the fund has been actively subscribed by various funds and sold about 2 billion yuan in just one week. From the perspective of the whole industry, this is just a microcosm of the recent hot sale of small-cap stock funds.
The fund's pursuit of small-cap funds has long been a sign. In the middle and late July, the CSI 1000ETF under E Fund, Guangfa, Guo Fu and Huitianfu was launched. In just one week, all four funds were raised in advance, with a total initial fundraising scale of 27.506 billion yuan, of which three products raised nearly 8 billion yuan, which was very eye-catching in the fund issuance market that has not yet fully recovered.
At the same time, the surviving products are also getting a large influx of funds. As of August 12, in the past month, the shares of Southern CSI 1000ETF and Huaxia CSI 1000ETF increased by 7.71600 million and1666 million respectively, of which Southern CSI1000.
On the whole, as of August 12, there were seven SSE1000 ETFs in the whole market, with a total scale of over 40 billion yuan, reaching 4147.5 billion yuan, while a month ago, the figure was only 2.855 billion yuan, that is to say, there were about 38.6 billion yuan in just one month.
In sharp contrast to the hot sales of small-cap funds, large-cap funds are experiencing capital abandonment, and the raising and sales of large and small-cap funds can be described as "two days of ice and fire".
For example, on August 12, an equity fund with benchmark of SSE 50 announced its offering. The fund is also issued by the head office, and the strength of the main agency channel is also leading in the industry. However, the reporter learned from channel sources that the issuance result of the fund is not ideal, and the issuance cycle in the past 20 days only raised less than 500 million yuan.
Fund companies are also reducing the layout of large-cap funds. Since the beginning of this year, there have been less than five large-cap style new funds with the names of "blue chips" and "core assets" or above 50 certificates as the performance benchmark, and the average fundraising scale is less than 300 million yuan.
Why does the trend deviate sharply?
"Small-cap stock funds are more sought after, which is the result of the combination of the right time and the right place." A Public Offering of Fund manager told reporters. On the one hand, the introduction of CSI 1000 stock index futures provides a derivative trading tool for the market and improves the willingness to allocate funds to small-cap stocks; On the other hand, the issuance of small-cap funds such as CSI 1000ETF has also brought incremental funds to small-cap stocks, further boosting the market of small-cap stocks; In addition, fund companies are also increasing the publicity of small-cap funds, increasing market attention.
This further aggravated the extreme differentiation of market style. Since April 27th, the CSI 1000 index, which represents the small-cap style, has rebounded sharply by 37.26%, and reached a new high in mid-August. In the same period, the SSE 50 index, which represents the market style, only rose by 4.32%, especially in July, which experienced a sharp correction again and even fell back to the low point at the end of April.
"In the past, market growth and market value were at a disadvantage of falling, and the adjustment was obvious. The market value style even fell below the bottom of the previous period and hit a new low. " In this regard, Shi Hengzhe, investment manager of Haifutong Fund, pointed out, "Before July, the market can be regarded as the valuation repair of oversold rebound, that is, most sectors have opportunities, but after July, the market value style has not been sought after by funds, which corresponds to the fact that the recovery of old infrastructure and real estate market failed to meet expectations, and the growth rate of social financing was lower than expected, which obviously corresponds to the fact that the growth rate of the whole real estate has not improved. Because of the high correlation between banks and real estate, in the short term, the banking sector.
As for the reasons why the styles of small-cap stocks and small-cap stocks have become more extreme since July, he believes that the current market environment has both the interpretation of the outbreak of emerging industries and the overall economic downturn. The current market environment is just in the process of high liquidity, low social integration and gradually bottoming out profits. These three points help to interpret the rebound of small-cap stocks.
In fact, in the long run, as early as February of 20021,the CSI 1000 index, which represents the small-cap style, has obviously outperformed the SSE 50 index with large market value, and small-cap companies in many industries have also outperformed leading companies, which is completely opposite to the white horse blue-chip style in previous years.
According to statistics, since the SSE 50 Index hit the highest point of 4 110 on February/0/0, the SSE 1000 Index rose by 15.59% and the SSE 50 Index fell by 29.24%, with a difference of nearly 45%.
How to interpret the future market style?
Over the past year or so, the dominant market style of small-cap stocks has also made many mainstream fund managers more "headwind".
Li Yongxing, director of stock investment of Yingyong Fund, said frankly, "Small market value style is more suitable for investors with dominant research breadth and speed, rather than investors with dominant research depth as in the past few years." On the one hand, at present, there is no industry that can penetrate into various industries at the same time of its rapid iteration as the Internet industry of 20 14 and 20 15, so the breadth of the research industry is required to be higher; On the other hand, most of the industrial changes in the last two years occurred in manufacturing industry, but the influencing factors of industrial changes in different sub-sectors of manufacturing industry are not exactly the same, so this requires higher research speed and transaction speed.
After the small-cap stock market lasted for more than a year, recently, there are more and more discussions about whether the small-cap stock market can last and when the pendulum movement of market style will turn. There are great differences on how the market style will evolve in the future.
Shi Hengzhe believes that the market style does not show much signs of turning in the short term. At present, the market liquidity is relatively loose, and superimposed social financing is still at a low level. In the second half of the year, we are more optimistic about the high prosperity and benefit from the liquidity direction; However, the market style may not be as extreme as in May-June, because the proportion of foreign capital allocation is not high. The newly developed Public Offering of Fund in the second quarter of this year is obviously lower than that in the same period of last year, and the public offering position is at a historical high, which has certain restrictions on the scope and intensity of further positions in the future.
However, Li Yongxing suggested the risks that the small-cap style may face in the future. The differentiation of market style is not completely divergent and has no boundaries. The biggest risk of small-cap style lies in liquidity risk and the slowdown of industrial change.
Because most small-cap companies can't see the end, they can only become phased and highly flexible positions. Therefore, first of all, they need a relatively loose liquidity and an improvement in their preference for capital risk before they are willing to take certain risks to obtain high returns; Secondly, the industry needs to be in a stage of rapid change, because if the industry remains stable, most leading companies will further expand their leading edge by virtue of their competitive barriers. No matter what kind of risk occurs, usually the ultimate risk of small market value style will be reflected in the liquidity risk in the transaction.
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