12, 1 early in the morning, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) decided to include RMB in SDR (Special Drawing Rights). According to the analysis, RMB successfully joined SDR, becoming the fifth currency to join SDR after US dollar, euro, pound and yen, which is a historic moment for RMB. The following is what I have compiled about the inclusion of RMB in SDR. Welcome to reading.
What does it mean for RMB to be included in SDR? 1 So, what is the influence of RMB in SDR? Will it greatly promote China's capital market? Can A-shares really usher in the "slow cow era"?
A number of research analysts said that the inclusion of RMB in SDR means the status of RMB as a reserve currency. Although this may be symbolic to a great extent, it will boost the influence of RMB and China in the international economy. Therefore, in the long run, it will enhance the confidence of domestic and foreign investors and attract foreign capital to enter the domestic capital market. However, in the short term, the direct pull of RMB into the basket on RMB assets is limited, and the impact on the stock market is very limited, even negative.
The influence geometry of RMB "entering the basket"
Hu Yufeng, a researcher at CITIC Securities, believes that SDR is essentially a unit of account and cannot be directly used for international trade payment and settlement, nor can it be converted into gold. Therefore, after joining SDR, the demand for RMB in various countries has increased limited. In fact, in practice, the total transaction volume of SDR is also low, and its application scope is limited. Therefore, joining SDR will not directly increase the demand for RMB in the international market.
Wang Han, an analyst at Industrial Securities, also said that the impact of joining SDR is more reflected in the level of confidence: it helps to enhance the attractiveness of RMB assets, but has limited contribution to the widespread use of RMB. From the perspective of RMB internationalization, RMB has not yet entered the top five in cross-border payment, so RMB internationalization still has a long way to go, and joining SDR is only a new beginning.
Chen Guo, GF Securities, said that China's accession to SDR may change the central bank's continuous support attitude towards the RMB exchange rate, and the RMB depreciation space is expected to be liberalized. Although it has experienced a round of depreciation, the RMB is still strong among the currencies of various countries. So far this year, only the US dollar has appreciated by 2.9% against the RMB. After joining SDR, the central bank may pay more attention to domestic monetary policy and give up its support for RMB exchange rate. Moreover, it is not excluded to adopt a one-time depreciation method to prevent capital outflow under the pressure of continuous depreciation for a period of time.
Debate on the pros and cons of the stock market;
Yang Delong, chief strategist of southern fund, said that the short-term impact of "entering the basket" on the RMB exchange rate is uncertain, but it will help the RMB strengthen in the medium and long term, thus greatly enhancing its international status. Once the "basket entry" is successful, the signal is of great significance, indicating that China's status as a big country has been recognized by the international community, which will greatly enhance the confidence of domestic and foreign investors, promote a new round of A-share rise, and benefit industries and sectors such as finance, real estate and Belt and Road.
Liu Mingyong, an analyst at Nomura Securities, believes that the recent relative stability of the RMB is due to the intention of the China government to include the RMB in the SDR basket. If RMB remains relatively stable thereafter, investors' sentiment towards China stock market will be more positive.
Hu Yufeng, a researcher at CITIC Securities, believes that the fundamentals of China are not optimistic, and the Fed's interest rate hike is imminent. Under the condition of weak internal economic growth and strong external diversion, it is difficult for RMB to enter SDR, and a large amount of funds will flow into the domestic capital market. Therefore, for the China stock market, it is hard to say that RMB "entering the basket" is a great positive.
Bloomberg believes that the short-term impact of RMB's inclusion in SDR on the stock market is relatively limited, and even if it exists, it may be negative. Once RMB is included in SDR, the Bank of China may reduce its intervention. The fluctuation of RMB in the future will have a negative impact on investors' risk appetite and hurt China stock market.
In addition, it is worth noting that in August this year, the IMF initially estimated that the proportion of RMB after joining SDR may reach 14%- 16%. However, according to the current news, the weight of RMB is likely to be less than expected. For the stock market, whether the market can stage an absolute counterattack today is largely due to the stimulus of RMB joining SDR. If the weight of RMB fails to meet expectations, it will disappoint investors and turn negative after all the benefits are exhausted.
Little knowledge:
What is SDR?
According to the IMF's explanation, SDR was first created in 1969, which was originally used to support the' fixed exchange rate system' of the Bretton Woods system. At the beginning of its establishment, it was set at the price of 0.88867 1 gram of pure gold, which was equivalent to 1 dollar at that time.
However, after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, countries began to adopt the floating exchange rate of 1976, that is, the exchange rate rose and fell freely according to the market supply and demand, and the monetary authorities did not interfere. SDR is also decoupled from gold and evolved into reserve assets and accounting units, which is what people call "paper gold".
Now, SDR has become the right to use funds allocated by IMF to member countries.
2 SDR was born in 1969 and was created by IMF. Its English name is SpecialDrawing Right and Chinese name is Special Drawing Right. Free use of currency quotas is a potential creditor's right of IMF members.
In other words, SDR is not a power, but a reserve currency, similar to gold dollar, which can be used as a country's foreign exchange reserve.
RMB (abbreviation: RMB; ; Currency code: code; Currency symbol:) is the legal tender in People's Republic of China (PRC). This coin was issued by the People's Bank of China, 1948 12 1 for the first time, and a new version was released at19991,forming a variety of banknotes, coins, plastic banknotes, ordinary commemorative coins and precious metal commemorative coins.
2065438+05438+065438 On October 30th, 2005/kloc-0, the International Monetary Fund announced that RMB was formally included in the IMF SDR currency basket, with a weight of 10.92%. The resolution will take effect on1October 30th. 20 16 16 65438. 20 18 65438+ 10/5, Germany and France announced that RMB would be included in foreign exchange reserves, and the two major economies in the euro zone cast a vote of confidence in RMB, indicating that the RMB has been settled in the international arena and its reserve status has been further enhanced.
What does it mean for RMB to be included in SDR? What does 3 sdr mean?
The SDR was established by the International Monetary Fund. It is a reserve asset and accounting unit. SDR also has a name called paper gold. Later it was also called SDR.
Initially, each SDR unit was defined as the price of 0.88867 1 gram of pure gold, which was the value of 1 dollar at that time. With the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, sdr is now used as a unit of valuation for a basket of currencies. Initially, sdr consisted of 15 currencies. After several years of adjustment, they are currently denominated in a basket of four currencies, namely, US dollars, euros, Japanese yen and British pounds.
As part of the IMF's allocation of funds to member countries, China's SDR quota is $6,369.2 million, while that of the United States is $3,765.438 million+$49.3 million.
The significance of joining sdr is as follows:
First of all, RMB internationalization can promote reform, including interest rate marketization reform, exchange rate marketization reform, capital market reform, regulatory reform and even political reform.
Secondly, after the internationalization of RMB, the exchange rate risk in China has been greatly reduced, which can help enterprises to go abroad and develop foreign trade.
Third, after the internationalization of RMB, international seigniorage can be levied, which is equivalent to the China government printing money to buy global goods.
In fact, before joining SDR, transactions between some Southeast Asian countries, such as South Korea, Russian Federation and China, were denominated in RMB and included in SDR. However, those who are recognized by the IMF have become the international settlement currency, and its political significance is far greater than its practical significance.
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