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Stock Investment Analysis -0023 10 Oriental Garden

Oriental Garden is a leading enterprise in the domestic landscape industry, and its business covers comprehensive industrial chain services such as seedling planting, landscape design, engineering construction and post-maintenance. The company is one of the 10 enterprises in the industry with both the first-class enterprise qualification and the first-class engineering design qualification of urban landscape architecture, and has the ability to undertake more than 10 million landscape engineering projects.

Relevant people believe that Oriental Garden represents a high-growth company in a sub-industry. The company has realized the integration of landscape design and construction, and its business coverage is wider. This is an effective business model for the future development of landscape engineering in China. At present, the huge growth market-landscape engineering is still in its infancy, and the vast second-and third-tier cities in China are the real markets for the prosperity and development of the industry. Taking the lead in listing and financing has undoubtedly given Oriental Gardens a greater first-Mover advantage.

Garden industry is an industry that pays equal attention to ecological benefits, social benefits, material civilization and spiritual civilization, and is closely related to the development of national economy. With the rapid development of China's economy and the optimization of economic structure, the comprehensive national strength and people's living standards have been continuously improved, and the state has paid more and more attention to the environment and ecology. The landscape industry shows a rapid growth trend, and the development speed far exceeds the overall growth rate of the national economy.

Oriental Garden integrates the industrial chain with design branding, and the two design brands of the company have experienced the tempering and precipitation of time. The joint venture brand with EDSA and its own wholly-owned brand Oriental Lihe cover the high-end market of landscape engineering design, and have four design branches: golf, real estate, park landscape and wetland landscape, among which golf and wetland design are the only design institutes in China. In the future, the company's investment and construction of design brands will continue to increase.

Raise funds to promote the expansion of the company's business and consolidate the comprehensive business model. The company plans to invest in 3 branches and 8,495 mu of green seedling base with the funds raised from this issuance. By expanding the scale of landscape engineering construction and seedling cultivation, the company will accelerate its business expansion and solve the bottleneck of seedling resources.

It is reported that the company's operating income is expected to increase by 46.43%, 72.50% and 44.26% respectively in the next three years. According to the calculation, the company will realize net profit of RMB 87 million,/kloc-0.50 billion and 2/kloc-0.60 billion in 2009-2008 respectively. 2009-20 1 1 Earnings per share (diluted) were 1.73 yuan, 2.98 yuan and 4.3 yuan respectively.

Combining PE and PEG valuation methods, we give the company a share price of 96.50 ~ 102.50 yuan/share in the secondary market. The company is located in a huge industry space, and it is expected that the company will become the leader and integrator of the industry. This IPO will be a new starting point for the company's growth, and the company has good medium and long-term investment value.

company introduction

I. Company Profile

The company is one of 10 enterprises, and has the first-class enterprise qualification of urban landscape architecture and the first-class engineering design qualification of the industry. Its business scope covers all aspects of the landscape industry chain, and its business areas are all over North China, East China, Southwest China and South China. Is a comprehensive, cross-regional landscape enterprise, but also the first domestic market to landscape engineering as the main business of listed companies.

Different from general construction enterprises, the success or failure of landscape engineering depends on the artist's shaping of "beauty". With the improvement of the public's ability to appreciate the environment, landscape engineering projects have higher and higher requirements for artistic effects, especially large-scale government landscape projects, which are often regarded as city business cards and pay more and more attention to the artistic achievements of the projects. This also determines that large-scale and complex landscape engineering projects are often undertaken by professional landscape engineering companies, which also determines the high rate of return of the projects.

Oriental Garden is a self-made enterprise. This company was founded by He, He and (they are husband and wife). The company started from the earliest garden flower planting business and gradually developed a business model of integrated landscape engineering. The company's ownership structure is clear and its main business is clear.

The IPO company issued 65,438+0,450,000 shares at the price of 58.60 yuan/share, accounting for 28.95% of the total issued share capital. After this issuance, the company's total share capital is 50,086,5438+0,300 shares.

Second, the main business

Oriental garden business covers comprehensive industrial chain services such as seedling planting, landscape design, engineering construction and post-maintenance. Among them, landscape engineering construction occupies a large share in the main business. Garden engineering is different from general construction enterprises. Besides the construction quality, the quality of the engineering depends largely on the designer's design level and aesthetic taste. Therefore, the special cultural and artistic attributes of this sub-sector make its gross profit margin level significantly higher than that of general construction enterprises.

Three. Financial status

In 2008, the income from the main business of Oriental Garden was 4,654,380,600 yuan, of which the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company was 59 million yuan, with an average compound annual growth rate of 34.83% and 44.96% respectively. Among similar listed companies, there are not many companies like Oriental Garden that can maintain high-speed growth of income and profits for many years. In addition to the rapid development of the sub-sectors in which the company is located, this is inseparable from the company's strong competitiveness, brand advantage and strong management ability in the sub-sectors.

Four, the securities company's opinion on the company

They think that the Oriental Garden represents a high-growth company in future sub-sectors, which is different from the previously listed green space [28.80 -0. 14%]. The company has realized the integration of landscape design and construction, and its business coverage is wider, which is an effective business model for the future development of landscape engineering in China. At present, the huge growth market of domestic landscape engineering is still in its infancy, and the second and third tier cities in China are nothing more than that.

From the industry point of view, the development of domestic landscape industry is still in the primary stage, especially the design of large-scale landscape projects, which is almost monopolized by foreign countries. It is difficult for domestic enterprises to win the bid for the main design of large-scale urban parks and green space projects in first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai. Now the development of the market has gradually spread to the mainland, and many second-and third-tier cities have begun to build their own ecological homes, thus starting a bigger market. At this time, through the exchange and study with top foreign design institutes, the design ability of domestic excellent design enterprises has been greatly improved, and some excellent enterprises will really stand out in this prosperous market.

On the other hand, the scale of domestic landscape engineering companies is generally small. According to the survey of China Landscape Architecture Society, there are only five landscape companies with total assets exceeding 200 million yuan, and the average total assets of the first 82 landscape companies are only 88 million yuan. A considerable number of landscape companies are born out of seedling planting companies, lacking the ability of landscape design and construction, and it is difficult to undertake large-scale landscapes, while some design institutes with strong design ability lack the ability of construction. Oriental Garden is one of the 10 enterprises in the industry with both the first-class enterprise qualification and the first-class engineering design qualification for urban gardens, which can provide integrated services for the project. This business model is undoubtedly more attractive to second-and third-tier cities in the mainland.

Under this background, oriental gardens can develop to a higher stage of landscape planning. By constructing an integrated model of landscape design, seedling cultivation and engineering construction, we have the ability to undertake large-scale landscape engineering projects of 10 million yuan and above, and promote the overall profit of the project with an integrated model.

Judging from the current business composition of Oriental Garden, although landscape design accounts for a small proportion in the company's main business, it plays a vital role in the company's business development and brand building. Therefore, oriental gardens constantly improve their landscape design ability through various ways. First of all, 1999 introduced American EDSA Landscape Design Company as a partner, and established Beijing EDSA Oriental as a joint venture to build it into a high-end landscape design brand. As a leading enterprise in the global planning and design industry, EDSA is the only landscape consulting company appointed by successive presidents of the United States and one of the drafters of the national standards for tourism planning in the United States. By establishing a joint venture with EDSA, Oriental Garden has made great achievements in high-end resort hotels, villas and large-scale comprehensive garden projects, and won high-quality projects such as the Olympic Park of Beijing 2008 Olympic Games and Beijing Xiangshan Villa. More importantly, through joint venture, Oriental Garden can observe and learn the operation mode of leading international companies at close range. On 200 1, Oriental Garden established Oriental Lihe Landscape Design Company, which was located in small and medium-sized landscape design and obtained Grade A landscape engineering design qualification, and undertook landscape engineering designs such as the expansion project of Beijing Capital International Airport and Shanghai Sheshan Golf Course.

Behind our increasingly colorful and tree-lined city is a big enterprise. With the improvement of people's living standards, the demand for "beauty" is increasingly strong, and cities at all levels increasingly regard urban landscape as the "face" of the government, supporting a thriving market. Relevant data show that the government's financial input will exceed 200 billion yuan only for the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" urban greening target.

K-line chart analysis of this stock

I. Morning Star

This chart shows the trend of the K-line chart of this stock 20101-2010/12/07, which can be seen clearly.

1. In the downward trend, a long yinxian entity appeared one day.

2. On the second day, there was a star line with a downward gap and a low opening, and the highest price was lower than the lowest price on the first day, resulting in a gap with the Yinxian line on the first day.

3. On the third day, a Changyang entity appeared. The morning star usually appears at the end of the downward trend, which is a strong signal of trend reversal.

In line with the characteristics of the morning star, there was a sharp rebound on the 7 th.

Second, the top deviation of kdj.

The following is the trend chart of the stock in August 20 10. It can be seen that the stock price has hit a new high, but the kdj index has not hit a new high, so the stock has continued to fall sharply after hitting this high point, which is the top deviation of kdj.

Three. MACD's Gold Cross

The following is the macd chart of the stock from March to April at 20 10. As you can see, on April 6th, macd appeared in the stock. The appearance of this signal shows that the upward trend of the stock has been obvious, so there was an obvious continuous increase in mid-April.

The above is a technical analysis of the previous trend of the stock.

Based on the latest index, K-line chart, kdj, macd, asi and many other factors mentioned above, as well as a detailed analysis of market trends, I think the probability of rising in recent days is greater. The upward trend has weakened in the past two days; The recent main cost of the stock is 1 16.73 yuan, and the stock price runs above the cost area, which can maintain some positions; The stock price is on the rise, with the support level of 96.00 yuan, and the mid-line shareholding is the main one; The general direction of this stock is still optimistic.