Relationship between Australian dollar and US dollar and commodity prices
The US dollar index is an index that comprehensively reflects the US dollar exchange rate in the international foreign exchange market and is used to measure the degree of exchange rate changes of the US dollar against a basket of currencies. At first, the US dollar index was calculated with reference to 1973 and 10, and its value was measured with 100 as the benchmark. After the introduction of 1999+ 10/euro, the currency used to calculate the US dollar index was adjusted from 1 0 to 6, and the euro became the most important and weighted currency. At present, the euro has the largest weight in the US dollar index, accounting for 57.6%; Followed by the Japanese yen, which is13.6%; Next came the pound 1 1.9%, Canadian 9. 1%, Swedish kronor 4.2% and Swiss franc 3.6%. The analysis of the trend of US dollar index can indirectly reflect the changes of US export competitiveness and import cost.
After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the US dollar became the core currency in the international monetary system, not only performing the functions of the world currency, but also acting as a global safe-haven currency. With the global economy running well, the trend of the dollar is mainly reflected in the differences between the United States and several other countries in economic growth, inflation, benchmark interest rates and policies. Once there is a problem in the world economy, the demand for safe haven of funds will become the main influencing factor. In addition, the market's expectation of the trend of the US dollar index and the historical cycle of the US dollar index itself will also affect its trend.
Generally speaking, the dollar index and commodity prices have a seesaw effect. When the dollar index is strong, commodities will generally show weakness, and when the dollar index is weak, commodities will show strength. The logic behind this may lie in two aspects: First, the US dollar is the pricing currency of commodities. If the fundamentals of supply and demand of commodities remain unchanged, commodities priced in dollars will weaken, which is mainly reflected in the monetary level, that is, a stronger dollar means that the purchasing power of dollars will increase, that is, the same amount of dollars can buy more commodities; On the contrary, the opposite is true. Second, as a reference indicator of the attractiveness of dollar assets, when the supply and demand of commodities remain unchanged, when the dollar strengthens, it means that the attractiveness of dollar assets will increase, which will lead to the conversion of funds between dollar assets and commodities, which will lead to the outflow of funds from the commodity market and the decline of commodity prices, which is mainly reflected in the asset allocation level; or vice versa, Dallas to the auditorium Of course, there are other reasons. In the analysis of commodity price trend, the analysis of dollar index is an important part. Next, I will explain several analysis angles.
Analyze USDX from the perspective of economy and inflation expectation.
In terms of economic data, the final value of GDP growth in the first quarter of 20 16 in the United States was revised down to 0.8%, and the initial value of GDP growth in the second quarter was 1.2%, with an expected growth rate of 2.6%. Although it is low, it is still higher than the growth rate in the first quarter and has maintained positive growth for nine consecutive quarters. Although the growth rate of personal consumption expenditure exceeded expectations and the import and export data also improved, the sharp decline in investment growth and the decline in government expenditure directly led to the low GDP growth expectation in the second quarter.
In the second quarter, the growth rate of private inventory decreased from -0.4 1% in the first quarter to-1. 16%, and the sharp decline in restocking led to the decline of private investment growth rate to-1.68%. However, due to the expected debt contraction and the decline in fiscal expenditure, the growth rate of government expenditure also continued to be sluggish, and the growth rate in the second quarter also fell from 0.28% to -0. 16%, and negative growth occurred again after six quarters. Nevertheless, the growth rate of personal consumption expenditure and import and export data are still very good, especially personal consumption. Personal consumption expenditure, which accounts for nearly 70% of the US economy, increased by 2.83% in the second quarter, much higher than the growth rate of 1. 1% in the first quarter. At present, the US real estate market keeps improving, the employment growth momentum is still good, and the stock market also keeps a high point. All these factors are conducive to maintaining the high growth rate of personal consumption in the United States.
In June, the number of non-agricultural employees in the United States increased by 287,000, hitting a new high since 2065,438+05 and 65,438+00, and it is expected to increase by 654,388+08. In June, the unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 4.9%, which is expected to be 4.8%, mainly because the labor force participation rate rose slightly to 62.7%, compared with 62.6% before. The American job market still maintains a good growth momentum.
Let's take a look at the economic and employment performance of the euro zone, Britain, Japan and other countries. In the first quarter, the year-on-year growth rate of GDP in the euro zone dropped to 1.6%, and the unemployment rate remained at a high level of10.65,438+00%. Nowadays, the euro zone is also affected by negative events, such as Britain's withdrawal from the EU and the banking crisis. In 20 15, the growth rate of British GDP began to decline to 2.33%. In the first half of 20 16, the growth rate continued to be lower than 2.33% and the unemployment rate was 4.9%. In the future, it will face the unpredictable negative impact of Britain's withdrawal from the EU on the economy. The stimulus from Japan and Abenomics is still there, but the economy has never improved. In the first quarter, the GDP growth rate dropped to 0.9%, and the unemployment rate was 3. 1%. Abenomics can only hope for the new three arrows.
From the perspective of inflation expectations, the inflation expectations in the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index show that the final value of inflation expectations in the United States was 2.7% in July and 2.6% five years later. Although inflation expectations have weakened, they remain at a high level. Judging from the price indices of the euro zone, Britain and Japan, the deflation pattern has been continuously lowered or maintained, not to mention inflation expectations.
Therefore, although the economic growth rate of the United States has declined, it is lower than expected, but it is already very good compared with Europe, Britain and Japan. Compared with the deflation expectations of these countries and regions, there are still inflation expectations in the United States today. From these two perspectives, it still plays a positive role in promoting the current US dollar index.
Analysis of USDX from the perspective of benchmark interest rate and policy.
Judging from the static benchmark interest rate, the dollar still has certain advantages over the euro, pound and yen. From a dynamic point of view, this advantage change in the future depends on the evolution of macro policies.
In terms of American policy, after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 BP in June 5438 and February last year, the pace of interest rate increase policy slowed down, but the main reason was external factors, such as Britain's withdrawal from the European Union. As for the later period, with the outbreak of a series of black swan events around the world, the market's expectation that the US economy will fall into recession again is heating up, while the expectation that the Fed will raise interest rates is gradually weakening. Nevertheless, compared with the quantitative easing expectations of Europe, Britain and Japan, the Fed's easing expectations are obviously weak.
Judging from the policy expectations of Europe, Britain, Japan and other countries, it can be summarized as a policy combination of "QE expansion+interest rate reduction" and fiscal expansion. In the euro zone, QE increased from 60 billion euros to 80 billion euros, and bond purchases expanded to investment-grade corporate bonds. In the future, QE expansion and interest rate reduction can be expected. On the British side, after maintaining the easing policy unchanged in July, the expectation of increasing the pace of policy easing in August has been strengthened. Japan, from QE expansion to interest rate cuts, to Abe's fiscal stimulus plan of 20-30 trillion yen, everything is in the process of stimulus.
Therefore, from the perspective of interest rates and policies, the pace of policy easing of the Federal Reserve is weaker than that of these countries, and the benchmark interest rate difference will continue to expand its advantages, which will be beneficial to the US dollar index.
Analyze USDX from the perspective of market expectation and risk avoidance.
Market expectation angle. Since 20 15, the market has been expecting the Fed to raise interest rates, and this rate hike is expected to gradually increase in the second half of 20 15. Subsequently, we saw that the US dollar index gradually strengthened in the second half of 20 15. In fact, in June 12, the Federal Reserve officially implemented the first rate hike policy after the financial crisis-25bp.
With the first interest rate hike settled, market expectations began to change gradually. First of all, judging from the trend law of the US dollar index after previous interest rate hikes, there have been several times in history from rising before interest rate hikes to falling after interest rate hikes. Under this historical law, the market's trend towards the US dollar index has gradually changed from rising expectations to falling expectations. Secondly, after two interest rate meetings in the first half of the year, the European Central Bank made a statement that the scale and pace of quantitative easing were lower than market expectations, which directly led to the emergence of two big yinxian lines in the US dollar index, which destroyed the rising technical form and weakened the US dollar index. Finally, as time entered the second half of 20 16, the expectation of American economic growth changed from optimism to caution, and then the expectation of the Fed's interest rate hike gradually weakened. Although there are various problems in other economies, the weakening expectation of raising interest rates has also pushed down the US dollar index.
Hedging angle. 20 16 years, from the bad debt crisis of Deutsche Bank in Europe to the referendum of Britain's withdrawal from the European Union, to the recent resurgence of the European banking crisis, the French terrorist attacks, the Turkish coup d' é tat, and the frequent occurrence of black swan incidents have repeatedly caught the market off guard. Looking forward to the later period, the Italian referendum and the American election will become the focus of market attention, and the unknown next black swan event will also become the focus of market attention.
E. Analyzing USDX from the standpoint of CFTC
Just as economic operation has its historical laws, so does the dollar index. So far, the cycle of the US dollar index is roughly 5-7 years. Referring to the historical law, the high point of this wave of US dollar index is around 20 17, and the specific time to form the high point still needs to analyze the specific situation at that time.
In addition, analyzing the position structure of the US dollar index is also conducive to improving the accuracy of our forecast of the late trend of the US dollar index. Judging from the latest position data of institutions, the long positions of funds dominated by hedge funds have rebounded recently, and the net long positions have also rebounded significantly. At the same time, the center of gravity of the US dollar index has gradually moved up since May. Therefore, from the perspective of institutional positions, the US dollar is still likely to rise in the near future.
There are many factors that affect the development of things, including major contradictions and minor contradictions, and there are different major contradictions and minor contradictions in different periods and stages. Therefore, when analyzing the future trend of the US dollar index, we should not only analyze the main contradiction but also pay attention to the secondary contradiction, and grasp the main contradiction to analyze the secondary contradiction, thus forming a forecast for the future of the US dollar index.