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What is the reference range of debt ratio control standard?

Foreign Debt Ratio is the ratio of foreign debt balance to export income, which is a major indicator to measure foreign debt burden and foreign debt risk when debtor countries have no foreign exchange reserves or do not consider them. The internationally recognized safety standard of debt ratio is less than 1%. The reference value of the debt ratio control standard determined by the International Monetary Fund is 9-15%. Among them, the local government's comprehensive financial resources = local public * * * budget income+fund budget income+transfer payment and tax refund+local state-owned capital operating income-special transfer payment, and all the income includes the balance of the previous year and the net upper income of the lower level (lower level upper income-subsidizing lower level expenditure).

there are only two factors that determine the change of debt ratio, one is the balance of foreign debt, and the other is the export scale. Under the background that the balance of foreign debt is rising in a straight line, the change of China's debt rate depends on the export growth rate. If the export growth rate is faster than the foreign debt growth rate, the debt rate will drop, as it was after 1994, and if the export growth rate is slower than the foreign debt growth rate, the debt rate will rise, which was the case before 1994. Therefore, if we want to alleviate the pressure of debt ratio, we should either reduce the balance of foreign debt or expand the export scale. Of course, the latter is more active.

However, it is not scientific and reliable to measure a country's foreign debt solvency by the debt ratio, because the export income usually pays for the import foreign exchange first, and only when there is still a surplus (that is, trade surplus) in the payment of the import foreign exchange can the surplus be used to repay the foreign debt. In order to relieve the pressure of foreign debt, many countries usually tighten their imports, which is the reason. The evaluation of China's foreign debt solvency was not suitable for the debt ratio index before 1994, because during this period, China's trade deficit was almost every year, and export income could not repay foreign debt. Due to the shortage of foreign exchange reserves, it was actually necessary to use foreign debt to balance the trade deficit. This is the fundamental reason why China's debt ratio operated in a safe zone during this period, but the debt reserve/foreign debt ratio operated in an "emergency state".