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How many years will it take to double the new RMB in 2022?
About three years. Yu Miaojie, a professor in Peking University, believes that the long-term appreciation trend of RMB is inevitable. If the United States implements a tight monetary policy in the short term, it will lead to an increase in interest rates. Raising interest rates will lead to a large number of international hot money flowing back to the United States, which is conducive to the appreciation of the US dollar, and the RMB will have depreciation pressure in the short term. But I want to emphasize in particular that I personally think that the RMB will appreciate in the long run. Generally speaking, three years is a long time. If we look at the trend of a currency in the long run, we mainly look at the growth rate of total factor productivity in the country where the currency is located, that is, the level of production performance. Our production performance is only half that of the United States, but I think our growth rate is much faster than that of the United States. Judging from the macro data, modestly speaking, China's economic growth rate is definitely 5%. The United States is relatively stable, hovering between 2% and 2.5%. In other words, even if we are 5% and the United States is 2.5%, China's economic growth rate is twice that of the United States. Therefore, the RMB has been appreciating for a long time. But this does not mean that the RMB will appreciate every day. In the long run, the RMB will appreciate. Personally, I think it will rise from the end of 20 19 to about 6. 1 within three years (that is, by the end of 2022).