The increase of greenhouse gas concentration will reduce infrared radiation to outer space, so the earth's climate needs to be changed to achieve a new balance between absorbing and releasing radiation. This transformation may include "global" warming of the earth's surface and lower atmosphere, because it will release excessive radiation. However, a slight increase in the earth's surface temperature may trigger other changes, such as changes in atmospheric cloud cover and circulation. Some of these changes will aggravate the ground warming (positive feedback), while others will slow down the warming process (negative feedback). Distribution map of greenhouse gas emissions in various regions of the world
The Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change uses a complex climate model to estimate that the global average ground temperature will rise by 65,438+0.4 to 5.8℃ in 265,438+000. This is expected to take into account the role of suspended particles in the atmosphere in the cooling of the earth's climate and the role of the ocean in absorbing heat energy (the ocean has a large heat capacity). However, there are still many uncertain factors that will affect this calculation result, such as the prediction of future greenhouse gas emissions, various feedback processes to climate change and the degree of ocean heat absorption.
Diseases and pests on the earth have increased.
The greenhouse effect can make prehistoric deadly viruses threaten human beings. American scientists have recently warned that the prehistoric deadly virus that has been frozen for more than100000 years may reappear, causing global epidemic panic and seriously threatening human life. Harm of greenhouse effect to human beings
Scientists at Syracuse University in New York pointed out in the latest issue of Scientist magazine that they had discovered a plant virus TOMV earlier. Because it is widely spread in the atmosphere, it is inferred that this virus has also been found in the Arctic ice sheet. So the researchers extracted four pieces of ice from Greenland, ranging in age from 5 million years to 6.5438+0.4 million years, and found the TOMV virus in the ice. Researchers say that the surface of the virus is surrounded by a solid protein, so it can survive in adversity. This new discovery makes researchers believe that a series of epidemic viruses such as influenza, polio and smallpox may be hidden deep in the ice. At present, human beings have no resistance to these primitive viruses. When the global temperature rises and the ice melts, these viruses buried in the ice for thousands of years or more may resurface and form an epidemic. Scientists say that although they don't know the survival hope of these viruses or the chance to adapt to the ground environment again, they certainly can't rule out the possibility of the virus coming back.
sea level rise
If "global warming" is happening, there are two processes that will lead to sea level rise. First of all, the seawater is heated and expanded, which makes the water level rise. The second is that the melting of glaciers and ice in Greenland and Antarctic continent has increased the water content of the ocean. It is predicted that from 1900 to 2 100, the average sea level of the earth will rise by 0.09-0.88m.. Global warming, the South Pacific island will soon have no roof. Global warming leads to the rapid melting of the ice sheets in the North and South Poles and the rising sea level. According to a report of the World Bank, even a slight sea level rise of 1 m is enough to cause 56 million people in developing countries to become refugees. The world's first inhabited island submerged by seawater is about to be born-Katri Island, located in Papua New Guinea, a South Pacific country. Now the main roads on the island are waist deep, and all agricultural land has turned into mud.
The climate is abnormal, and the number of ocean storms is increasing.
The abnormal climate and extreme weather are mostly due to the global greenhouse effect, that is, the concentration of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, increases, making it impossible for heat to radiate to outer space, making the earth a thermos and a thermos that is constantly heating up. Global temperature rise leads to the melting of a large number of glaciers in the North and South Poles, rising sea levels, resulting in tsunamis, typhoons, very hot summers, very cold winters, and many extreme weather.
The land is dry and the desertification area is increasing.
Land desertification is a global environmental problem. Since historical records, China's120,000 hectares of land have become deserts, especially the 5 million hectares of "modern desertification land" formed in recent 50 years. According to the survey of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), in the south of the Sahara desert, the desert expands outward by about 6.5438+0.5 million hectares every year. Every year, there are 6 million hectares of land desertification in the world. Agricultural production loses $26 billion a year. 1968 to 1984, a drought that shocked the world lasted for 17 years in the southern edge of sub-saharan Africa, causing huge economic losses and disasters to these countries, with more than 2 million deaths [3]. Desertification has narrowed the living space of biology, which has attracted great attention from scientific circles and governments all over the world. Five years ago, we pointed out that climate cooling and weakening tectonic activity were the main causes of desertification, and human activities accelerated the process of desertification [4]. China scientists' recent scientific expedition to Lop Nur provided irrefutable evidence.
The potential impact of editing this paragraph on human life
economic impact
More than half of the world's population lives in the coastal area of 100 km, and most of them live in urban areas near seaports. Therefore, the significant rise of sea level will cause serious economic damage to coastal low-lying areas and islands, such as accelerating the erosion of coastal beaches by seawater and pushing underground fresh water farther inland through rising seawater.
The influence of agriculture
Experiments show that plants will grow faster and taller in the environment with high concentration of CO2. However, the result of "global warming" may affect the atmospheric circulation, and then change the global rainfall distribution and the water content of the surface soil on all continents. Due to the failure to clearly understand the impact of "global warming" on regional climate, the transformation of plant ecology has not yet been determined. 20 1 1 In May, Stanford University published a study on global warming sponsored by the RockefellerFoundation, pointing out that agricultural products in the United States, Canada and Mexico have hardly been affected by global temperature rise in the last 30 years. This is the first time that the United States has published a research report on the relationship between atmospheric temperature and crop yield. The report was published in the latest Science Express magazine. David Lobell, an assistant professor of the Earth Environment System at Stanford University, said that the research started at 1980 to monitor the relationship between greenhouse effect and crop yield. It is pointed out that since 1980, the global wheat yield has decreased by 5.5% and the global corn yield has decreased by 4%, and the global rice and soybean have not been greatly affected. Robert pointed out that the United States is the world's largest producer of corn and soybeans, accounting for about 40% of the global output, and has not been greatly affected by the greenhouse effect in the past 30 years. Robert stressed that "it has not been affected so far, and it is hard to say in the next decade. Robert said that wheat outside the United States such as Russia, France, India and other countries; Corn production in China and Brazil has declined in the past 30 years. The corn and soybean producing areas in the United States have not been affected by the greenhouse effect, which has aroused great interest from climatologists. Why have they not been affected? " Scientists re-examine the impact of the greenhouse effect in different parts of the world and explore whether there are other reasons for the greenhouse effect. Robert pointed out that according to IPCC research since 1950, the average temperature of the earth rises by 0. 13 degrees Celsius every ten years. IPCC predicts that the temperature will rise even faster in the next 20 to 30 years. "If this prediction is true, crop yields in the United States and Canada will also be affected. At the same time, the report pointed out that the global crop price has increased by 20% from 1980 due to the impact of greenhouse effect.
Impact of marine ecology
The disappearance of coastal marshes will definitely reduce the number of fish, especially shellfish. The salinity of estuary water quality may reduce the species of freshwater fish, on the contrary, the species of marine fish in this area may also increase relatively. As for the impact on the overall marine ecology, it is still unclear.
Influence of water cycle
Global rainfall may increase. However, the change of regional rainfall is still unknown. Some areas may have more rainfall, but some areas may have less rainfall. In addition, the increase of temperature will increase the evaporation of water and put pressure on the use of surface water sources. Scientists predict that if the earth's surface temperature continues to rise at the current rate, by 2050, the global temperature will rise by 2-4℃, polar icebergs will melt greatly, resulting in a sharp rise in sea level, and some island countries and coastal cities will be submerged, including several famous international cities: new york, Shanghai, Tokyo and Sydney.
Impact on gender balance
High temperature environment is easy to bring up boys and babies, and low temperature environment is easy to bring up girls and babies. Researchers are even more worried that under the greenhouse effect of rising global temperatures, the probability of a baby boy being born will be higher and higher, which may lead to an imbalance between men and women. Previous studies have long found that the sex, birth time and environmental temperature of rats and bats are closely related. In order to find out the relationship between the sex of human babies and the ambient temperature, German researchers tracked the birth records between 1946- 1995 and compared the local temperature changes. The results show that April to June is the month with the most boys born, and 10 is the month with the least boys born. Further analysis shows that the environmental temperature one month before fertilized eggs are combined, that is, the environmental temperature of boys and girls one month before sexual intercourse, is an important factor affecting the sex of babies. High temperature environment is easy to bring up boys and babies, and low temperature environment is easy to bring up girls and babies. The reason why temperature affects the sex of the baby is that the researchers assume that high temperature will affect the X chromosome of sperm, making it difficult for female babies to be born; Low temperature will affect the Y chromosome of sperm, making it difficult for a baby boy to be born. Another hypothesis is that the higher the temperature, the stronger the desire to have sex. High temperature environment will stimulate the increase of sexual frequency of men and women, and also make women more likely to get pregnant. Other studies believe that sperm with Y chromosome can swim faster. But sperm with X chromosome is stronger. Therefore, in the case of frequent sexual behavior, sperm with Y chromosome is more likely to combine with eggs and give birth to a baby boy. In the case of decreased sexual behavior, sperm with X chromosome are more likely to wait for the opportunity to combine with eggs and give birth to female babies. Researchers are even more worried that under the greenhouse effect of rising global temperatures, the probability of a baby boy being born will be higher and higher, which may lead to an imbalance between men and women.
(2) The atmosphere can make the short-wave radiation of the sun reach the ground, but the long-wave radiation emitted from the ground is absorbed by the atmosphere, which raises the temperature of the ground and the lower atmosphere. Because its function is similar to the greenhouse for cultivating crops, it is named the greenhouse effect. Since the industrial revolution, the greenhouse gases with strong heat absorption, such as carbon dioxide, released into the atmosphere by human beings have increased year by year, and the greenhouse effect of the atmosphere has also increased.
(3) So far, we can't come up with an effective solution, but the next best thing is to try our best to curb the growth of emissions, and we can't leave it to fate.
First, the tentative target is 2050. If the current situation continues, it is estimated that the average temperature of the earth will rise by more than two degrees by combining the effects of various greenhouse gases. Once the temperature rises so sharply, the earth's climate will change dramatically. Therefore, for today's plan, it is nothing more than doing everything possible to take countermeasures and try to curb the upward trend. At present, international public opinion is constantly calling for this direction, and research institutions in various countries have also put forward various specific countermeasures. Unfortunately, after carefully studying various schemes, so far, no one countermeasure has been found to solve the problem alone. Therefore, it is necessary for us to explore all the possibilities and comprehensively consider the effects of these countermeasures.
Total ban on chlorofluorocarbons
In fact, the whole world is working hard in this direction, and this situation is most likely to be realized. If this can be achieved, it is predicted that global warming can be suppressed by about 3% by 2050.
Forest protection countermeasures
Today, the global forests that depend on tropical rainforests for their livelihood are being seriously damaged by human beings. On the one hand, the effective countermeasures are to stop this uncontrolled forest destruction as soon as possible, on the other hand, to implement large-scale afforestation and strive to promote forest regeneration. At present, the carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere due to forest destruction is estimated to be about 65,438+0 ~ 2 gt. Annual carbon emissions. If countries seriously promote the plan of controlling logging and forest regeneration, by 2050, the whole biosphere may absorb carbon dioxide equivalent to 0.7gt. carbon every year. In this way, the greenhouse effect can be reduced by about 7%.
Improvement of automobile fuel use
Japanese cars have been upgraded in this respect, greatly improving the fuel consumption in the past. In the United States and other places, perhaps because of the rich oil layers, there is no obvious improvement in fuel-saving design, and the fuel consumption is still too high. Therefore, the cars produced in this area have full play in improving fuel design. The reduction of fossil fuel consumption caused by this effort is estimated to reduce the greenhouse effect by about 5% by 2050.
Improve energy efficiency in other occasions.
Is to improve energy efficiency in other occasions. In today's human life, a lot of energy is used everywhere, especially in the heating and cooling equipment of houses and offices. Therefore, there is still room for substantial improvement in improving energy efficiency, and it is estimated that it will inhibit global warming by about 8% by 2050.
The production and consumption of fossil fuels are taxed in proportion.
In this way, manufacturers and consumers can be urged to be vigilant when using energy and avoid unnecessary waste. Its tax revenue can be used for forest protection and the development of alternative energy sources.
Once any fossil fuel is burned, it will emit carbon dioxide. However, its emissions will vary according to the types of fossil fuels. Because the main component of natural gas is methane, its carbon dioxide emission is lower than that of coal and oil. Similarly, in order to generate 1000 calories, coal must emit carbon dioxide equivalent to 0.098 grams of carbon; This is 0.085 grams of oil. If you switch to natural gas, you only need to discharge 0.056 g. Therefore, it is suggested to increase taxes in the order of natural gas, oil and coal. For example, in production, in terms of energy, coal with high carbon dioxide emissions should be taxed at $0.50 per billion joules, while natural gas should only be taxed at $0.23. In other words, the higher the carbon dioxide emissions, the heavier the tax on fossil fuels. As for consumption, the tax rate is set at 23% for coal and 0/3% for natural gas. Of course, this is the only idea at this stage. But if put into practice, it is expected to provide about 5% inhibition on global warming by 2050.
Encourage the use of natural gas as the main energy source at present.
Because natural gas emits less carbon dioxide. Recently, Japanese cities generally use natural gas instead of liquefied gas, and this case is to further promote this movement. However, the effect of inhibiting warming is not too great, and only about 1% at most.
Exhaust limitation of steam locomotive
Because the exhaust gas of cars and locomotives contains a lot of nitrogen oxides and carbon monoxide, it is hoped to reduce its emissions. Although this method can not directly reduce carbon dioxide, it can produce the effect of inhibiting other greenhouse gases such as ozone and methane. It is estimated that by 2050, it will share about 2% of the global warming suppression.
Encourage the use of solar energy
For example, promoting the so-called "sunshine plan" and so on. This kind of effort can relatively reduce the consumption of fossil fuels, so it has a direct effect on reducing the greenhouse effect. However, even if this plan is actively promoted, it will only inhibit the temperature rise to about 4% by 2050. Its effect does not seem to be as expected.
Develop alternative energy sources
Using biomass energy as a new clean energy. That is, the organic matter produced by plants through photosynthesis is used as fuel to replace the existing high-pollution energy sources such as oil.