On July 2th, led by the weighted financial sector, the A-share market launched a violent rebound. From the perspective of comprehensive institutions, a series of good news, such as the implementation of the new rules and regulations on asset management and the new rules on bank financing, indicate that the regulatory authorities have slowed down the "rhythm and intensity" of deleveraging, alleviating the risks that may arise from the previous rapid promotion.

so can we participate in the rebound? How to layout if you participate?

On July 2th, A shares once fell more than .7% in the morning session, but in the afternoon, the A-share market went out of the violent upward trend. At the close, A shares rose more than 2% and regained the 28 mark.

It is worth noting that weighted financial stocks have become the leading role in Big bounce. The Shenwan first-tier banking sector index closed up more than 4%; The non-bank financial sector index also closed up more than 3%.

In terms of banking stocks, Chengdu Bank and Wujiang Bank closed daily limit. Among the four major state-owned banks, China Construction Bank soared by 6.77% and Industrial and Commercial Bank rose by 5.8%. In terms of other commercial banks, China Merchants Bank and Ping An Bank, the leading stocks, also rose by over 6% and 4% respectively.

In the non-bank financial sector, Essence Trust and New China Life Insurance rose by over 9%; Huatai Securities and China Pacific Insurance rose more than 5%; China Ping An rose more than 3%.

what made financial stocks lead the A-share market to start a violent rebound? The main reason is that since noon on July 2, rumors about the new rules and regulations of asset management have gradually started.

In the 21st century, it is mentioned in the report that the notice on the implementation of the new asset management regulations will be issued soon, and the central bank will make it clear in the following aspects:

First, public offerings will be able to invest some non-standard products;

Second, old products that meet certain conditions will be able to invest in new assets;

Third, some goods-based products will adopt amortized cost method;

fourth, we will make proper arrangements for the return of products in the transitional period.

The new rules and regulations of the central bank's asset management have been put into practice

And the rumors were confirmed on the evening of July 2th. First, the central bank issued the Notice on Further Clarifying and Regulating the Asset Management Business of Financial Institutions (hereinafter referred to as the "new rules and regulations on asset management").

Huang Yiping, vice president and professor of Peking University National Development Research Institute, commented that the new asset management regulations promulgated on April 27, 218 adopted a transitional cut-off method for new and old businesses, giving the market a relatively sufficient buffer period. However, due to the unclear understanding of the specific requirements of actual business operations, financial institutions have different understandings of the specific provisions of the "new asset management regulations". In order to avoid misunderstandings in policy understanding and possible deviations in implementing the "new regulations", financial institutions have either adopted them.

Huang Yiping said that the "New Regulations on Asset Management" always adheres to the policy direction of deleveraging, further clarifies the regulatory standards and requirements, and fully considers the actual situation of China's financial market development and the reasonable financing needs of the real economy, which is conducive to eliminating market uncertainty, stabilizing market expectations and ensuring the stable operation of the financial market. It will create a healthy monetary and financial environment for the real economy and be more qualified to win the tough battle against major risks.

The new rules on bank financial management have been further revised and improved

In addition, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission has also drafted and issued the Measures for the Supervision and Management of Financial Management Business of Commercial Banks (Draft for Comment) (hereinafter referred to as the "Measures") for public comments.

according to the general requirements of the "new regulations on asset management", China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission has further revised and improved the "measures" and plans to issue and implement them as supporting rules.

The Measures released the restrictions on non-standard investment of public offerings, that is to say, public offerings can be invested in non-standard, but they must meet the relevant requirements such as term matching and quota management.

E Yongjian, chief financial analyst of the Financial Research Center of Bank of Communications, said that on the whole, the Measures are consistent with the "New Regulations on Asset Management" in breaking the basic principles such as just exchange and net worth management, and fully consider the possible problems in implementation and buffer some provisions.

The Measures will help to alleviate the pressure of early redemption risk of unexpired stock assets, and avoid a sharp decline in the scale of wealth management and endanger the financing of the real economy. At the same time, he also said that there are seven points worthy of attention.

first, all banks are not required to set up asset management subsidiaries.

second, reduce the sales starting point of a single publicly offered wealth management product from the current 5, yuan to 1, yuan.

thirdly, some products are allowed to be valued by amortized cost method.

fourth, non-standard investment is still relatively strict.

Fifth, wealth management products are allowed to invest in various public securities investment funds

Sixth, old products can be issued to connect with unexpired assets.

Seventh, regulate the structured deposit business.

Guotai Junan believes that a series of recent policy measures show that the government is increasing its support for the economy. We did not expect the government to "release water", but to a great extent, it eased some risks brought about by excessive deleveraging. It can be seen that the government is adhering to the high-quality development line, and the moderate easing of "on-balance sheet" has actually begun.

apart from the implementation of new rules and regulations on asset management, what are the benefits of loosening leverage in the near future? Guotai Junan Securities made a summary.

First of all, on July 17th, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission held a forum with banks, which emphasized that "large and medium-sized banks should give full play to the' head geese' effect, increase credit supply, reasonably determine the price of inclusive small and micro loans, and drive the actual loan interest rate of small and micro enterprises in banking financial institutions to drop significantly."

Secondly, it is reported in the media that the central bank will give MLF extra funds to support loan and credit bond investment.

finally, there are some signs that the financial sector may accelerate its efforts. On Friday, the People's Daily mentioned that the local hidden debt risks have been effectively curbed, and the phenomenon of PPP generalization and abuse has been corrected in time. Our understanding is that after controlling the flood trend, reasonable PPP projects can be moderately accelerated.

Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, believes that the implementation notice of the new asset management regulations will be issued soon, which means that the uncertainty will be gradually eliminated for the market and the confidence in the market will be improved. On the other hand, according to some media reports, public offering can be non-standard, qualified goods-based products can adopt amortized cost method, and there is no hard target for rectification, which is a great improvement to the market capital and is conducive to the market rebound; In addition, the RMB exchange rate also rebounded on Friday, which is also a positive, so the A-share market rose sharply in the afternoon. The A-share market has bottomed out twice now, and it is expected to form a bottom of W, with a better rebound. After the plunge, there will inevitably be Big bounce. So the market rebounded on Friday, which is a very positive signal.

Li Daxiao, chief economist of Yingda Securities, said that many people have never made a definite judgment on the scope of the new asset management regulations, what problems will occur in the implementation process and what impact they will have on this market. Then, when the detailed rules are promulgated, the impact on the market can be measured, and it can be handled step by step, not across the board. This specification allows the market to proceed in an orderly manner.

The market's reaction to this news on Friday should be said to have changed the state of being sensitive to bad news and insensitive to good news, and the follow-up will enter a stage of being gradually sensitive to good news.

Of course, there are still differences among institutions in grasping the rebound rhythm. The cautious school thinks that it is necessary to wait for the golden autumn; The optimists recommended their favorite tickets.

◆ Cautious school: it is not appropriate to blindly pursue high and wait for the golden autumn

Li Lifeng of Guojin Securities said that it is not recommended to blindly pursue high at present, but when A shares plummet, they should dare to increase their positions, and the direction of bargain hunting in the later period is mainly focused on scientific and technological innovation, such as "self-control, security and informationization".

Guotai Junan Li Shaojun also said that recently we have seen some positive changes in the adjustment of monetary policy and the stance of fiscal policy; However, the impact of this change on the market needs a process from quantitative change to qualitative change. Therefore, our investment advice is still to wait for the golden autumn.

◆? Optimist: what to buy after rebounding?

Of course, optimistic institutions have begun to discuss how to lay out the rebound. China Merchants Securities said in the research report on July 12 that since the financial crisis in 28, A shares have rebounded nine times after falling, and the direct reason for the rebound is mostly due to the repair of risk appetite brought by good news.

intuitively, the time interval of rebound is about 1-2 months, the range of index rebound is 12%-25%, and the average rebound range is 18%. The reasons for these nine crashes are different, and the direct reasons for the rebound are mainly summarized in two aspects. One is that the policy is introduced to eliminate market panic, and the other is that the macro economy is basically oriented to promote market growth.

(Source: China Merchants Securities)

So what do you buy for this round of rebound? China Merchants Securities said that following the principle of plunging and rebounding to grab the boom, we believe that we should focus on big data cloud computing, semiconductors, innovative drugs, new energy vehicles and other sectors at present. Considering the bad landing, the 5G investment cycle is expected to start gradually, and we can consider the layout of 5G on the left.

huachuang securities pointed out in the research report on July 15th that this round of market rebound was brought about by emotional recovery and marginal improvement of capital. considering the short-term economic downturn, the profit is still under pressure, we think that the current stock selection should meet the following necessary conditions:

1. The post-cycle and counter-cycle of market style are more compatible, and consumption and growth are more dominant;

2. Market value factor. Considering that the value of super-large-cap stocks in the rebound market is under pressure and its elasticity is poor, we should pay attention to the medium and large-cap stocks of 1-1 billion;

3. Choose excellent stocks with stable gross profit growth and reasonable PEG;

4. Choose enterprises with sufficient cash flow and avoid stocks with high equity pledge ratio;

5. The market volatility is large, and the risk appetite is shrinking. Choose stocks with low beta coefficient.

based on the above five characteristics, we have built a combination of "macro-strategy essence" from top to bottom. From the industry distribution, medical biology and computer are our very optimistic industry directions; In addition, food and beverage, national defense, electronics and chemical industry are also recommended.

(Source: Huachuang Securities)