There is no comparison between the two countries

Nacle, an activist of the Syrian opposition organization "Local Coordination Committee", said that he was encouraged by the TV images of the mass rally in Tripoli's central square, especially when Libyans began to shout slogans of solidarity with Syrian pro-democracy movements. Nacle said: "Syria and Libya are very different. For us, the two countries have different situations, but we are happy to know that the final result of all situations is the end of the dictator's rule."

However, some Syrian rebels warned the outside world not to compare them with Libya, because none of their cities "fell" and they hardly felt any interference from the West, and once the rebels showed some signs of resistance, they would be suppressed by the military and police. However, The New York Times analyzed that this sudden change in the Arab situation has taught the opposition in various countries a lesson: absolute power is not unshakable, and repression will never make street protests disappear.

"The fall of the Libyan regime is a great victory for the Arab world." Samir Nasser, the iconic figure of Syria's anti-Assad, said. On the night of 21st, he was in a cafe in Aleppo, the second largest city in Syria. On TV, he heard the news that Gaddafi's second son Saif was captured. More than 7 intellectuals in the cafe jumped up from their chairs and kissed each other to congratulate him. "This gives Syrians the motivation to move forward." He said.

Some regional observers have analyzed that the actual changes in Libya may keep Assad in a repressive situation. The end of the three regional political powerhouses is just around the corner: former Tunisia President Ben Ali is currently in exile in Saudi Arabia; Former Egyptian President Mubarak dragged his sick body to be tried in a humiliating cage; Gaddafi and his sons face many charges, and it is difficult to guarantee that they will not be imprisoned in the future. They all thought they could calm the situation, but the tide was gone.

Assad responded to the western call for his resignation, saying it was meaningless. According to United Nations statistics, the repression by the Syrian authorities has caused 2,2 deaths, including 35 this month alone, and the number is still rising. The latest case this week is that the Syrian opposition claimed that when the United Nations fact-finding team visited Homs, the third largest city in Syria, on the 22nd, the country's security forces killed three demonstrators. When the United Nations personnel left the city, seven more demonstrators were killed.

The 17th special session of the UN Human Rights Council passed a resolution yesterday and decided to send an independent international investigation team to Syria. According to this resolution, the independent international investigation team will investigate the facts and situations of human rights violations in Syria since March 211, identify those responsible for human rights violations and hold them accountable, and publish and submit the report of the investigation team to the United Nations General Assembly before the end of November 211. The resolution called on the Syrian authorities to cooperate with the independent international investigation team.

The resolution proposed by Poland on behalf of the European Union was passed with 33 votes in favor, 9 abstentions and 4 votes against. The resolution condemns the violation of human rights by the Syrian authorities and calls on the Syrian authorities to immediately stop the act and protect civilians. This special meeting was held in Geneva on the 22nd and 23rd of this month to discuss the human rights situation in Syria. Pillay, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, said at the special session that 2, people have died in Syria since the demonstrations in March this year. Pillay said that Syrian security forces have comprehensively violated human rights, which may constitute crimes against humanity.

The Wall Street Journal pointed out that Assad is not without friends. Alawite, a small branch of Islamic Shia, which belongs to many upper-class rulers in Syria, supports him, and Sunni business class and religious minorities such as Christianity and Druze still have some loyalty to him.

On 22nd, Syrian people who supported Assad gathered in Damascus. Unlike Gaddafi, who has few friends, Assad also has strong regional alliances. Abdalla PoHabibou, former Lebanese ambassador to Washington and now head of the Mu Min Value Center of Beirut think tank, said that in addition to Iran, the Syrian government has allies in the Shiite Hezbollah militia that participates in Lebanese governance; Even in the Shiite-dominated government of neighboring Iraq. Bo Habibou said that Gaddafi is alone, no one needs him, no one is close to him, and no one likes him; Syria is completely different.

External intervention may backfire

ali ahmed, a Saudi dissident and head of the American Gulf Affairs Institute, said that the success of the Libyan opposition proved that the change of western policies was the decisive factor in realizing freedom in the Middle East. At least at this stage, there is no possibility for the West to launch such intervention in Syria. Syria is located in the heart of the Middle East, and its fate is not only crucial to the struggle between Israel and the Palestinians, but also related to the strength of Iran. The population of Syria is more than three times that of Libya, and its religious and ethnic composition is complex, and its conflict with neighboring Israel has not yet been resolved. Paul Sullivan, a professor at the National Defense University of the United States, reminded that getting NATO involved in Syria may also make it deeper in the quagmire of the quagmire-the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Syria has a more effective army, more allies, and the ability to trigger a regional conflict by bringing in neighboring Israel.

Tunisia and Egypt represent a romantic chapter in the Arab changes, while Libya is always marked with NATO intervention. The Middle East has always been wary of foreign interference. Therefore, most columns and analysis articles in Arabic-language newspapers think that the Libyan opposition has no autonomy. Some articles even go further, arguing that Gaddafi's greatest "sin" is actually that he once despised foreign powers.

"When the colonists returned to the country under the banner of liberation, this image was more dangerous than anything else." Talal Salman, editor of the Lebanese left-wing newspaper As-Safir, said, "This is a tragic choice imposed by the dictator on the people of the Arab world: either they lose the right to express their opinions, give up their political opinions and lose their dignity to live in the world; Or let those colonists come back with the new slogan of liberation, so as to end oppression and return to the people. "

Assad took advantage of people's fear of neo-imperialism. He didn't mention Libya in the interview, and he didn't have to mention it. "No matter what you do, they will still tell you that this is not enough. They don't want your country to reform, and they still want your own country to be backward and unable to make progress. We will never allow any country to interfere in Syria. "

The New York Times believes that in fact, many people in the Arab world are "disdainful" about the Libyan opposition relying on the West to win, and the word "victory" has been regarded by many as despotism and insanity. Therefore, when Gaddafi called for "zanga zanga" earlier, Arabs have regarded it as the latest mantra.

"Libyans will pay for this war." Diya Azmeh, a 28-year-old young man from Damascus, the Syrian capital, said, "The end of Iraq will repeat itself."

Syria may have different solutions

Andrew Tabara, a researcher at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said that the change of power in Syria will remain a very heavy diplomatic burden. Many analysts say that the key to the successful change of the Syrian government is more likely to be diplomatic and economic pressure than external military pressure. US President Barack Obama has clearly put forward the goal of regime change in Syria.

Some observers predict that this kind of economic and political pressure on Syria, combined with Libya's example effect, will eventually lead to Assad's downfall in some way. Arab political commentator and columnist Lamy Kerry said that Assad now has only one choice, and that is to choose his own way to step down. "The lesson left to Assad is that if you want to withdraw, you have to withdraw early." Nadeem Shehadi, a researcher at Chatham House in London, said, "He should first understand that he is hopeless. I guess he may have already had a plan, but he hasn't said it yet, that is, he needs an exit strategy."

However, the attack on Libyan strongman Gaddafi, like the disastrous fate of deposed Egyptian and Tunisia leaders Mubarak and Ben Ali, will only induce Assad to persist in not giving up power in order to save himself.

The Wall Street Journal said that Russia and China have always maintained that external forces should not interfere in the Syrian issue. However, analysts say that if the military action against Libya is regarded as a success, efforts to further pressure Damascus through UN sanctions or referral to the International Criminal Court may be restarted.

China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu said yesterday that the Syrian crisis should be resolved by rapidly opening an inclusive political process led by Syria, and all parties concerned in Syria should solve the problem peacefully and properly through dialogue and consultation. The future of Syria should be decided by Syria. The relevant actions of the international community should help push the Syrian government to implement its reform commitments, encourage all parties to participate constructively in the political process, and help promote the early stability of the situation in Syria.

The influence in North Africa is better than that in the Middle East

The success of the Libyan opposition may also inspire other countries in the Middle East. In particular, American officials hope that it will revive a demonstration in Iran in 29 that challenged Ahmadinejad's re-election as president.

Syria has been Iran's closest strategic ally in the Middle East for p>3 years. American officials believe that the growing challenges facing the Assad regime may arouse the fighting spirit of Iranian democratic forces. A senior official said that the situation in Syria is of great interest to the Iranian government.

Mansour Zhemli, editor of Bahrain newspaper al-Wasat and a well-known democracy activist in Bahrain, said that in recent months, people began to lose hope and thought that they could not achieve change. But if Gaddafi can be overthrown, it means that democracy and mass revolution can happen in the Arab world; The idea that repression can stop people's ideals is gone.

But the British newspaper The Guardian believes that the influence of the Libyan revolution may be mainly concentrated in North Africa, rather than the wider Middle East. Nowadays, Egypt, Libya and Tunisia have formed a post-revolutionary group, which may enlighten the Algerian and Moroccan people in western North Africa. After all, Algeria, which had riots at the beginning of the year, relied on spending money to eliminate disasters, but such a temporary solution will not always be effective. The same is true in Morocco. Although King Mohammed introduced a moderately reformed constitution in response to the Democrats, what happened in Libya may prompt the country to maintain and increase the pressure for comprehensive reform.

in the long run, Libya's influence is either huge or negligible. The key is to see whether Tunisia, Egypt and Libya can find the best way forward, which will lead to some healthy competition.

It is difficult for Egypt and Tunisia to shake off the remnants of the old regime. In Egypt, it is still the army, not politicians, who give orders. Egypt and Turkey also face the embarrassment of failing to fulfill their economic commitments.

In Libya, people are worried that the anti-Gadhafi alliance will split and turn into civil war. However, assuming that such an outcome can be avoided, Libya's future will be brighter than that of its east and west neighbors. It has a large amount of oil, a modest population (6.5 million people) and sovereign wealth funds estimated to exceed $7 billion. This may make Libya the first modern, prosperous and democratic country in North Africa. Properly managed, it will become a regional model and mismanaged, and it may follow in Iraq's footsteps, which will make the reform prospects in the region more questioned.