202 1 is definitely a big year for fund companies. Of course, this big profit does not refer to product income, but management fees.
The profit model of fund companies is to collect management fees. In the case of little difference in rates, the amount of management fees is determined by the size of the fund.
From the perspective of income, the larger the scale, the more management fees are earned, the higher the visibility of fund managers, and the lower the product distribution cost.
0 1. The basic industry of fans is the first.
According to IFind data, by the end of the first quarter of 2022, the net assets of E Fund totaled 1.67 trillion yuan, ranking first in public offering. Its most famous product, E Fund Blue Chip Selection, has a mixed scale of 67.623 billion yuan, and its manager is Zhang Kun.
The picture below fully illustrates why Zhang Kun is so popular, and its fan base is really large. A single E Fund blue chip is selected and mixed with this product, with 6.026 million holders and 7 1.3 million in the interim report.
Judging from the change of the number of holders, the annual report in 2020 was only 1.9065 million, while the annual report in 2026 increased directly from 5438+0 to 7 1.325, which means that there are more than 5 million households on the top of the mountain.
From the perspective of investor structure, individual investors accounted for 97.2%, and institutional investors accounted for 2.78%, but institutions reduced their positions by a large margin, and the proportion dropped from 3.027 billion in the interim report to 729 million in the annual report.
E Fund's blue-chip selected mixed portfolio has been in leading companies in Hong Kong and A, such as Maotai, Tencent and Haikang. Tencent has increased its holdings to the largest heavyweight.
E Fund's high-quality selected positions are similar to those of blue chips, and the heavy positions are also Maotai, Tencent and Haikang.
The positions of E Fund's high-quality enterprises are similar, the first is Tencent, the second is Haikang, followed by Maotai, Luzhou and Wuliangye.
In fact, the coincidence degree of these three products is very high.
The main positions of E Fund Asia are Hong Kong stocks, and the heavyweight stocks include Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Tencent, JD.COM, Ali and Meituan.
02. The concept of free cash flow
Zhang Kun mentioned a new concept of valuation in his annual report, that is, the value of an enterprise is the discount of all cash flows in its life cycle.
This concept was first put forward by Buffett, and the logic is to calculate the enterprise value through the discounted cash flow that the enterprise may generate in the future.
For example, annual income 10%, free cash flow after one year1100000 yuan, converted into today's present value100000 yuan, and so on.
If valued according to this method, the leading companies in liquor, beer, milk and daily consumption industries will basically meet the standards.
Almost all consumer industries are low-input and high-output, with no credit for cash settlement and relatively sufficient cash flow. For example, Wuliangye has 7365438+ billion in cash.
Compared with the real estate industry, the contrast is great. The operating cash flow of real estate companies is basically negative, and most of the money received must be reinvested and repaid. This model has poor ability to resist risks.
Zhang Kun repeatedly mentioned "3-5 years" and "discounted cash flow method in the future" in every report in the past year. In fact, he expressed pessimism about the short-term market. Perhaps he is afraid that investors will panic because of the large scale of the funds under management and cannot show too much pessimism.
03. The trap of value investment
Since last year 1 quarter, almost all the league funds have been withdrawn across the board. Since the beginning of the year, most of the public offerings of more than 10 billion yuan have lost money, which is determined by the market style.
Long-term adherence to the price investment model is certainly correct, but the impact of fluctuations in corporate profits on short-term stock prices is inevitable.
Except Maotai, Yili and Toutou, few mainland markets can maintain a steady growth of more than 10 for five years like Apple, Amazon and Microsoft.
In fact, internationalization has never been a problem in the consumer industry. China has a population of 65.438+0.4 billion, which is the largest consumer market in the world, and the population of Europe as a whole is 740 million. It is reasonable to set up several consumer companies with large market value.
However, every hype in the market is too strong. When the consumer market comes, liquor can be valued at dozens or hundreds of times in one breath, and the new energy track is also valued at hundreds of times, which overdraws the space in the next few years or even decades every time.
Every adjustment, the market is also thinking about whether there is a problem with logic or whether the business model has collapsed. In fact, the fundamentals have not changed much, but the market sentiment has been changing.
The current environment has undergone some changes:
The bottom signal of consumption must be the bottom of performance. In fact, the repeated impact of this epidemic on the consumer industry is enormous, and the high-growth industries of new energy will not be re-verified until the latest quarterly report.
Extend the time period, I still believe that the CSI 300 will rise back, but this time may take a long time.