Whether customers, colleagues or journalists, everyone's evaluation of Zhang Ya is "a professional and approachable beauty". Whenever, she will enthusiastically and patiently exchange her experience and understanding in ETF investment management. Although she was rated as a "natural ETF player" by her colleagues, she felt that she was gradually groping along this road, but this kind of homework was done after class. The operation and management of ETF need high comprehensive quality, always be alert to various possible events, and require high logical thinking ability, but Zhang Ya seems to be very interested in it. "I have outstanding logical thinking ability since I was a child, which may be a habit."
Unlike most women, Zhang Ya is a rational person who likes to think about the reasons behind many things. Zhang Ya has always believed that ETF managers need to communicate more with investors. "For ETF fund managers, it is more important for investors in the market to master and use ETFs to obtain income than to manage the index products themselves." This is the orientation that she gave her job.
The fund manager of ETF is not the job of single management tracking error that the market thinks. Zhang Ya said that this is actually only a small part of the fund manager's work. "ETF is a simple and comprehensive job. To say that it is simple means that people usually say that tracking deviates from investment management, and that it is comprehensive because it actually tests the comprehensive quality and ability of managers from all aspects. When I first managed ETF, I paid more attention to the trading process. Later, I found that the strength of ETF was even earlier. " Now, Zhang Ya's work has changed. At least13 of the time is spent on the selection of early targets or the early research and development of new index products, and13 of the time is spent on market cultivation.
"The selection of ETF targets requires managers to have keen insight, discover the index that can represent the future development trend of economy and market in advance, and develop and manage it as ETF products." She believes that the underlying index of ETF funds should have three characteristics: first, optimize those indexes with high market awareness; Secondly, after the development of broad-based index resources with high market awareness is completed, customized index will be the focus of the next round of development. The customization index must be carefully selected, and it can't be customized just for developing products. The essence of personalized index should first conform to the basic economic and investment logic. On the basis of bringing good long-term returns to investors, it is also required to be suitable for indexed investment operation, with strong flexibility and trading function. The choice of index target determines the success or failure of ETF funds to a certain extent, and it has also become an operation that fund managers must pay attention to, and carefully carry out preliminary research and revision.
In order to introduce ETF to more investors, and let them make good use of ETF to gain income, Zhang Ya spent a lot of time communicating with investors and peers. When her colleague introduced Zhang Yashi to the reporter, she said that the customer's favorite thing is to exchange ETF investment ideas with her, and she can introduce seemingly complicated investment tools to investors in the simplest way.
"While managing ETF well, if we can fully communicate with investors and promote the development and promotion of ETF, it will also enable the marketing department of fund companies to have a better contact point in promotion." She said that in order to make domestic ETFs in line with international standards, she often takes advantage of her study abroad to discuss with her foreign counterparts and explore a road suitable for the development of ETFs in combination with domestic conditions. To outsiders, this is a "gift", but in fact it is the result of Zhang Ya's spending a lot of time training and training. After dealing with ETF for four years, she has never slacked off, constantly thinking about the logic behind each accident, constantly supplementing her previous investment operation technical specifications and avoiding ETF operation risks.
Constant vigilance brought her an almost perfect answer. In the four years of operating the SSE dividend ETF, there has not been a mistake. In the face of this achievement, Zhang Ya is still very cautious. "Doesn't mean there are no accidents now, so I can treat it lightly in the future management. For me, my job is to try to avoid all possible risks. "
Objectively speaking, considering ETF fund managers has two dimensions, one is performance deviation and the other is smooth operation. Zhang Ya modestly explained that the tracking deviation of SSE dividend ETF has been very small: "We think that some factors that cause the tracking deviation of ETF are uncontrollable, such as dividends of constituent stocks: after dividends, the stock price is ex-dividend, but the portfolio income still exists, which will lead to inevitable positive deviation. Of course, for traditional holders, this positive deviation is what they are willing to accept; For example, due to the investment restrictions in the fund law, funds cannot buy shares in custodian banks, which means that fund managers must find other substitutes, which will also bring some subjective deviations. " Zhang Ya continued to add: "As an excellent ETF fund manager who is strict with himself, what needs to be done further is to ensure the stability of this uncontrollable tracking deviation as much as possible, and to actively and timely transmit the above information to ETF arbitrage investors, so as to reduce their arbitrage uncertainty to the lowest possible level, and not to make them gradually move away from our ETF for these reasons."
More tests lie in the handling of technical details. Zhang Ya believes that this requires fund managers to pay more attention to it, and constantly make systematic thinking and supplement in management. When she entered Huatai Bairui to manage the SSE dividend ETF, she didn't have much practical experience. In the half year after receiving the task, what she did most was to think about various situations that may be encountered in future management and write more technical indicators and investment norms, so that the subsequent investment operations could be standardized.
After her real operation, Zhang Ya will immediately add new problems to the technical specifications. "This requires the habit of systematic thinking. If we encounter a new problem and it does not bring problems to the management, we will try our best to bring all the problems related to this problem into the specification while appreciating this opportunity, even if this situation may not appear in future operations. "
ETF fund managers also have a necessary job, commonly known as "fixing baskets". This seemingly simple "flower basket" is actually the result of multiple factors. The reasonable and convenient setting of the basket reflects the concern of the fund manager from the interests of the holders. For example, in the bull market in 2007, a large number of stocks were at the daily limit, and some stocks could not be bought. Zhang Ya has changed the default rule that dividend ETF prohibits cash substitution (buying with a basket of stocks) and allows cash substitution. "A slight change will at least open the channel for investors to buy when the constituent stocks are traded daily, which will neither harm the interests of the holders nor meet the investment needs of arbitrageurs." Zhang Ya believes that traditional ordinary investors and institutional investors, investors who are currently involved in stock index futures, and hedge traders who may be based on more complex financial instruments such as ETFs in the future are the ultimate customers who will influence ETFs. These three types of investors determine the ultimate market vitality of ETF. As an important investment trading tool, ETF not only provides investors with a long-term allocation tool, but also provides an opportunity to grasp the market rotation. Now and in the future, ETF will gradually play an important role in various complex compound trading strategies.
Specifically, investors with large funds are more suitable to use ETF for asset allocation. Even for long-term investment, we should grasp the investment opportunity and allocation direction, which is the key to determine the success or failure of investment. "Long-term investment is to choose an index that conforms to the future industrial policy and economic development direction, and also to consider the time of intervention." Zhang Ya analyzed that, simply put, it is safer to intervene in a low inflation environment. As for how to judge the level of inflation, it is determined according to different economic development structure models.
She believes that in a low-cost-driven economic environment, it is possible to achieve low inflation and high growth, and the inflation rate of 2% or 3% is relatively low. The current economy has entered a new industrial economic cycle, and it is doomed that the long-term inflation center will not return to its previous low level. On the other hand, the government's tolerance for inflation is also rising. At present, it is obviously unrealistic to pursue the inflation rate of 2%-3% in the past, so we should give new consideration to inflation when considering investment.
From the configuration point of view, although the prosperity of traditional industries still exists and will continue for quite some time in the future, emerging industries have basically been determined as the future development direction. Zhang Ya believes that since the latter can benefit from policy support and performance improvement, it is expected that the performance of the capital market will be stronger. As for the overvaluation of some stocks under the "preference" of the market, Zhang Ya believes that high-quality companies will have predictable or even unexpected performance growth every year, so the valuation higher than that of traditional industries is also within a reasonable range. For example, at present, the static P/E ratio of small-cap stocks in Shanghai Stock Exchange is only 30 times. If it is regarded as a growth stock that is expected to grow in the next three to five years, the valuation level of 30 times is acceptable.
Based on his years of experience, Zhang Ya summed up the method of grasping the rotation of market value index through ETF. Judging from the rotation of market value scale (also known as the rotation between large-cap index and small-cap index), looking forward to the current point, there should be two modes: one is short-term rotation opportunity, when the market expects monetary policy to be loose or no longer tightened, there will be market opportunities for phased valuation repair. However, due to the rapid development and short duration of this kind of market, it is difficult to grasp. Zhang Ya does not recommend most investors to participate unless they have a strong personal interest in this area. Secondly, it is a medium-term rotation opportunity. She suggested that investors should try their best to grasp the continuous rotation opportunities of large markets and small and medium-sized markets according to the context of industrial cycle development and different stages of economic cycle. Generally speaking, small and medium-sized enterprises may be more attractive in the early and middle stages of the new industrial cycle. With the continuous growth of new economic industries from scratch, excellent small and medium-sized enterprises will gradually grow into large enterprises and enter the strong stage. In the middle and late period of a new industrial cycle, it is often found that the performance of indexes with larger market value will become stronger.
Regarding how to grasp the industry rotation in the current economic environment, Zhang Ya believes that the traditional cyclical industry still exists, and emerging economies will not replace the traditional cyclical industries in the short term, but they are more driven by a single wheel based on reasonable performance growth, while emerging industries will have more opportunities to enjoy the dual drive of valuation (industrial policy support) and performance due to the promotion advantages of national policies.
Zhang Ya added: "We believe that those companies that have certain business, technology or market advantages and have begun to take shape and lead the trend will be the most certain and the earliest to grow. The new growth areas involved by these companies will also come more from the upgrading of traditional industries. It is expected that investors will strive for the return on investment given to the capital market by industrial upgrading and transformation with smaller enterprise risks and more certain growth. "