In recent years, with the promotion of the goal of "double carbon", the prosperity of the photovoltaic industry has been heating up. In 222, the photovoltaic heat ran through the whole year, and prices in many links of the industrial chain rose, and the price of silicon materials hit record highs.

at the same time, in 222, the photovoltaic industry was booming, attracting many industrial capitals to invest across borders, and the upstream and downstream industries of the industry attracted a new round of expansion.

"Overall, 222 is a year of rapid development of photovoltaic industry, but it also gradually exposes signs of overcapacity." Qu Fang, an investment consultant of Wanlian Securities, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that in the next few years, supply-side reforms within the industry will appear, industry concentration will be further enhanced, and the profit rate of leading enterprises will gradually increase. With the regulation of production capacity and policies, the profit distribution in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the industry will be more rationalized.

it is predicted in the industry that the large-scale expansion of photovoltaic industry in 222 will reach the production capacity and put into the market in 223 with a high probability. then, will the large-scale expansion of photovoltaic industry cause overcapacity? Will the photovoltaic industry usher in a new round of industrial reshuffle? How many existing photovoltaic companies can survive? All this still needs market testing.

Silicon prices hit record highs

Cross-border "catch-up" of industrial capital

In p>222, the price increase of silicon materials was transmitted to the whole industrial chain of photovoltaic industry, from silicon materials to silicon wafers to photovoltaic modules.

The person in charge of Longji Green Energy told the Securities Daily reporter, "This year, the highest price of silicon materials exceeded 3, yuan/ton, which was several times higher than the 8, yuan/ton at the beginning of last year. At the same time, the price of photovoltaic modules has also increased, and the sales price is close to the bottom line of downstream power stations. "

A person in charge of a new energy power plant enterprise told the Securities Daily that the component prices have all exceeded 2 yuan /W at the highest this year, which is a big cost pressure for enterprises.

In Qu Fang's view, the prices of upstream raw materials have been hitting record highs, and more than half of the profits of photovoltaic industry have been taken away by silicon materials, which is unfavorable to the long-term healthy development of the industry. The price of silicon materials continues to rise, and it is transmitted to silicon chips and components, and the profit margin of downstream enterprises is further compressed, resulting in uneven development of the industry.

according to wande data, as of early December, the price index of photovoltaic silicon wafer rose from 48.92 points at the beginning of the year to 58.5 points, with a cumulative increase of 18.66%, and the highest price index of silicon wafer reached 63.85 points this year.

in the first three quarters of this year, the top four companies in the photovoltaic industry were Tongwei, Daquan Energy, TBEA and Longji Green Energy. The net profit of these four companies all exceeded 1 billion yuan, and the top three companies were all silicon manufacturers.

The "photovoltaic craze" in p>222 attracted many cross-border players. According to the incomplete statistics of the "Securities Daily" reporter, since 222, there have been no less than 5 companies with cross-border photovoltaic layout, of which about 3 are A-share listed companies. The data shows that distributed photovoltaic and solar cells are the highlights of cross-border investment of industrial capital, and polysilicon is also the focus of cross-border enterprise layout. In addition, there are enterprises that lay out the entire photovoltaic industry chain.

Qu Fang said, "For cross-border players, among the listed companies that have set foot in, some companies use their own resources to complement agriculture and light, improve the utilization rate of resources, and reduce the cost of electricity consumption, such as Zhengbang Technology, and other companies, such as Jianghe Group, which combines their main business with photovoltaic power generation."

Yan Hu, vice chairman of Tongwei Co., Ltd., said that a large number of new participants in the photovoltaic industry can alleviate the tight supply situation in the industry on the one hand, and inject new vitality into the long-term development of the industry on the other. In the long run, the photovoltaic industry has enough room for long-term growth. Although many companies cross-border photovoltaic, the whole industry still presents a head concentration situation.

with the influx of new forces, photovoltaic enterprises have expanded their production capacity and sought opportunities for diversification in order to maintain market competitiveness. Taking Longji Green Energy as an example, the company plans to build a second-phase 15GW single crystal module project in Wuhu, and also plans to build an annual 1GW single crystal module project in Heshan, Jiangmen, Guangdong. It is planned to invest in the 46GW single crystal silicon rod and slice project in Erdos and the 1GW single crystal module project in Wuhu. At the same time, Longji Green Energy has laid out the field of hydrogen energy; Jingke technology enters the fields of wind power and hydrogen energy.

Liu Jimao, assistant to the president of Xingchu Century Technology Co., Ltd., told the Securities Daily reporter that all links in the photovoltaic industry chain are expanding their production capacity at a very fast speed.

According to the incomplete statistics of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, from the beginning of 221 to November 222, there were more than 48 planned photovoltaic expansion projects in China.

With regard to the capacity expansion of photovoltaic industry, hao yang, director of Computer Numerical Control, believes that the photovoltaic industry is in a period of rapid and high-speed development, and the demand for installed terminals is constantly increasing. As the capacity of each link is released one after another, there may be an oversupply situation to some extent, but proper competition will encourage enterprises to increase research and development, reduce costs, and be conducive to the healthy development of the industry.

Wang Hong, general manager of Jingke Technology, said that more newcomers will gradually reduce the cost of photovoltaic products and equipment.

Price rises first and then falls

Capacity expansion causes hidden worries

The hot situation of photovoltaic industry in 222 not only attracted the cross-border investment of many industrial capitals, but also brought the hidden worries of excess caused by capacity expansion, which led to a downward trend in the price of the entire photovoltaic industry.

according to the data in December, the photovoltaic industry has entered the channel of price decline. On December 23, Longji Green Energy and TCL Zhonghuan lowered the price of silicon wafers again, with a decrease of more than 2% compared with the last quotation. Similarly, the price of silicon materials has also begun to decline.

"The price of silicon wafers has dropped. One reason is that the price of upstream silicon materials has dropped, while the downstream demand has weakened and the inventory pressure has increased." According to the yield analysis, in late December, the price of silicon materials fell to about 25,/ton, and the silicon wafer production capacity has exceeded the market demand.

in fact, not only silicon materials and silicon wafers, but also the whole photovoltaic industry chain is reducing prices. According to the data of Silicon Industry Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association last week, the transaction price of mainstream batteries dropped to about 1.15 yuan /W, down 15.4% from the previous month. On the component side, the execution price of forward orders dropped to 1.72 yuan /W to 1.8 yuan /W, a decrease of 1.4% from the previous month.

industry insiders predict that the price reduction of the photovoltaic industry chain will continue until the first quarter of next year. If the problem of overcapacity in the photovoltaic industry cannot be solved, the relevant links in the industrial chain will continue to reduce prices.

"In 223, the photovoltaic industry as a whole is still in a high boom cycle, but there will be overcapacity in some links. It is estimated that in 223, the global PV installed capacity is expected to continue to increase to about 35GW. Among them, it is about 14GW in China, with a year-on-year growth rate of about 4%, and the demand for ground power stations is expected to recover, and the proportion of installed capacity will pick up. " Bend and weigh.

industry reshuffle is accelerated

technological innovation is the magic weapon to win

It is predicted that the silicon material production capacity will be released to 2 million tons next year, and the production capacity will reach over 15% of the market demand. From the perspective of silicon wafer production, the global silicon wafer production capacity is expected to reach 47GW by the end of 222, and it may exceed 1GW next year, which seriously exceeds the actual demand.

Regarding the overcapacity problem in the industry, Qi Hai _, president of Beijing Teyi Sunshine New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., said that the photovoltaic industry is technology-intensive and capital-intensive, which determines that the photovoltaic industry needs to continuously expand production and apply new technologies, new products and new processes to production and operation.

Li Zhenguo, founder and president of Longji Green Energy, said that the expanded capacity must be the leading capacity in the industry at this stage, and only after such capacity expansion can it promote the industry and the global clean energy transformation.

"Advanced production capacity will not be in excess, but will be in short supply. The industry will be reshuffled under the drive of hot money, and enterprises that focus on R&D and innovation will become stronger." Qu Fang said that from the current development of the photovoltaic industry, the new technology of photovoltaic cells will further promote the cost reduction and efficiency improvement of the photovoltaic industry. Photovoltaic cells are expected to become a new breakthrough in the photovoltaic industry in 223, and technical routes such as TOPCon and HJT are expected to make breakthroughs in industrialization.

On November 2, 222, Longji Green Energy released a new generation of HPBC batteries, with the efficiency of the standard version of battery mass production exceeding 25.% and that of the PRO version exceeding 25.3%. Based on this battery technology, Hi-MO6, a component product, was developed, mainly focusing on the industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic demand.

in terms of refraction, at present, the photovoltaic cell is mainly P-type PERC cell technology, but its conversion efficiency is close to the limit. The world record of the conversion efficiency of the mainstream PERC battery in the photovoltaic industry is 24.6% created by Longji Green Energy, which broke the efficiency bottleneck of the PERC battery of 24% previously thought by the industry.

On November 19th, Longji Green Energy announced to the outside world that according to the latest certification report of Hamelin Solar Energy Research Institute (ISFH), the conversion efficiency of heterojunction (HJT) battery independently developed by Longji Green Energy reached 26.81%, breaking the efficiency record of silicon solar cells that had been dusty for five years.

This is the first time in photovoltaic history that the efficiency of silicon battery created by China solar technology enterprises has broken the world record.

"Improving the conversion efficiency and reducing the cost of kilowatt-hour is the eternal theme of the development of photovoltaic industry." Li Zhenguo told the Securities Daily that the efficiency of solar cells is a beacon of photovoltaic technology innovation, and the ultimate efficiency of crystalline silicon solar cells shows the development potential of photovoltaic technology and the development direction of photovoltaic industry.

Li Zhenguo said that the next generation of photovoltaic cell technologies, whether TOPCon, HPBC or HJT, including some fusion and hybridization of these technologies, will achieve 26% to 27% mass production efficiency in about three years.

"every 1% increase in battery conversion efficiency can save more than 6% cost for downstream ground power stations. This means that the cost of photovoltaic power will be further reduced. " Qu Fang said that for the photovoltaic industry, with the mass production of new battery technology, it is possible to further promote the transformation of the photovoltaic industry.