Research institutions believe that under the situation of policy regulation and prudent management of real estate finance, housing enterprises have limited willingness to take land, and it is expected that the urban land market for subsequent auctions will also cool down. Two batches of cities with more land for bidding, auction and hanging will withdraw, or further optimize the rules of soil auction.
Many cities lower the upper limit of premium rate and raise the threshold for participating in the auction.
Due to the adjustment of land auction rules, in the process of the second centralized land supply, land transfer in several cities was postponed or re-listed. For example, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and Qingdao all stopped listing and re-listed, while Fuzhou, Jinan, Shenyang, Suzhou and Tianjin all postponed the transfer. As far as the transfer time is concerned, many cities that should have concentrated local auctions in August have been postponed to September, 65438+ 10.
According to the report released by the Central Reference Institute, among the 22 key cities, the rules of the second round of centralized land supply have three main changes compared with the first batch: First, the auction rules have been optimized to "price limit lottery". The upper limit of premium in most cities represented by Guangzhou, Nanjing, Hangzhou and Hefei was lowered to 15%, which reduced the land acquisition cost of housing enterprises. Some cities canceled "competitive construction" and "competitive self-sustaining", and most cities introduced lottery as the last link after bidding reached the upper limit. Among them, Shanghai and Suzhou implemented "one-time quotation", Wuxi, Fuzhou and other cities 1 1 sold, and six cities including Beijing and Qingdao adopted "high-quality bidding scheme".
Second, multi-dimensional promotion of participation threshold. In terms of development qualification, the detailed rules for the second batch of land parcels in key cities have stricter requirements on the development qualification of bidders, including qualification grade, years, joint multi-agent and so on. In terms of land purchase funds, the audit has been strengthened. Most cities except Tianjin have made it clear that the shareholders of real estate enterprises and the sources of land purchase funds are "five noes", and cities such as Shanghai and Nanjing must be audited by accounting firms before and after land auction.
Finally, the quality-related standards are improved. Hangzhou, Suzhou and other 10 cities emphasized the requirement of "quality" in the second batch of centralized land supply. Among them, Beijing and Hefei set minimum quality standards and sold some plots by means of "bidding for quality schemes"; Qingdao, Shenyang and other cities adopt the mode of "competing for quality", while Suzhou, Chengdu and other cities have introduced the detailed rules of "determining quality".
The auction rate is rising, and the amount of land acquired by head housing enterprises accounts for 60%
At the beginning of the second centralized land supply, many cities restricted the upper limit of land premium rate, which was interpreted as beneficial to developers. However, after careful study of the detailed rules, it is found that strict sources of land purchase funds and competitive construction quality have put forward higher requirements for developers. From the macro-environment, at present, various strict control policies are frequent, the hot city market shows a cooling trend, the overall situation of the real estate industry is tightening, and the attitude of housing enterprises to take land has become cautious.
According to the analysis of Kerui Research Center, from the perspective of cities that have completed the second round of centralized land auction, the adjustment of land auction rules has produced a certain effect of stabilizing land prices, and the land market has generally cooled down. Compared with the heat of the first round of concentrated soil auctions, the heat of the second round of concentrated soil auctions in cities has declined. Specifically, the transaction premium rate is lower than the first round of local auctions, especially in low-heat cities such as Jinan and Tianjin, and the premium rate drops by more than 10 percentage point; Except Xiamen, the auction rate of the other seven cities has been greatly improved, and the auction rate of the second round of land transfer in Shenyang, Changchun, Fuzhou, Jinan and Tianjin has all exceeded 30%.
Zhongyiyuan also said that with the continuous increase in the supply of residential land, the transaction scale of Xiamen, Wuxi, Chengdu and other cities has further increased, but the land market has obviously cooled down, and the proportion of land bidding in China and Shanghai has decreased compared with the first batch. In cities with cold markets such as Changchun and Tianjin, the proportion of upper limit plots is still low. In terms of transaction floor price, the average transaction floor price of the second batch of plots in most cities has decreased compared with that of the first batch, while the land prices in Qingdao, Chengdu and other places have increased due to the higher initial floor price.
As for the market outlook, Zhongyiyuan believes that it is expected that the urban land market to be auctioned in the future will also cool down, and some plots with good lots or relatively high profits are still the focus of attention of real estate enterprises. The probability of entering the final stage of bidding is greater, and plots with low profits or complicated transfer requirements are more likely to be auctioned or withdrawn.
"The second batch of cities with more land for auction and withdrawal will further optimize the rules of land auction." The institute also analyzed that in order to respond to the requirements of strengthening the construction of housing security system, the third batch of centralized land supply in some cities will increase the supply of affordable rental housing land, among which Changchun has made it clear that the third batch will mainly use shed-converted land and rental housing land, and residential land will no longer be supplied in principle.
However, in the cold environment, the head housing enterprises still perform brilliantly. According to the data of Ke Rui Research Center, in the second round of centralized land supply, including homestead, the amount of land acquired by TOP20 housing enterprises reached 654.38+0047 billion yuan, accounting for 60% of the total transaction amount, an increase of 4% compared with the first round. Among them, China Shipping, Poly and Xiamen Jianfa ranked in the top three.
Zhongyiyuan believes that the adjustment of the second round of centralized land auction rules will bring land acquisition opportunities for housing enterprises with stable funds and help them increase high-quality land reserves at a lower cost.