1. Investment-grade Chinese dollar bonds have experienced a process of falling first, then rising and then falling. Since the beginning of the year, the return is only 0.02%, of which the return of real estate investment-grade index is -2.2% and that of non-financial investment-grade is 0.5%. Since the end of September, investment grade, real estate investment grade and non-financial investment grade have dropped by -0.6 1%, -2. 1% and -0.5% respectively. The non-financial investment grade has continued its good performance since 2022, and the overall rate of return is good. Since 2022, the financial investment grade has been influenced by Huarong and the real estate industry, and the yield is average.
2. The secondary market price of US dollar debt of Chinese-funded real estate fell sharply, while that of yield to maturity rose significantly. Of course, Fantasia is only a catalyst. The core lies in the continuous tightening of real estate policies, tight cash flow, poor debt financing, and the continuous fermentation of credit risks of entities such as Evergrande. In this round of sharp decline, the non-financial industry is relatively dominant because there are fewer risk subjects involved; The yield and spread of high-yield bonds represented by real estate have reached a high point in recent years, and have shown an accelerated upward trend in the near future. The performance of the secondary market is transmitted to the primary market, and the financing performance of housing enterprises in the primary market is also very poor. Judging from the statements of relevant departments in 2022, the intention to intervene or even support the intervention of credit risk disposal of housing enterprises is insufficient, and the tendency of speech is still more market-oriented.
This determines that the possibility of a significant improvement in the credit status of housing enterprises is low, and the market will still vote with its feet, so the overall risk cannot be easily converged. This is different from the situation after the contractor and Yongmei. From a historical perspective, in 2022, China's dollar debt is at the bottom of the mood, and the credit pressure determines that the future is difficult to be optimistic. The trend of US debt has also brought liquidity pressure. Of course, in addition to paying attention to risks and being wary of housing enterprises with high debt maturity pressure, we also need to treat real estate enterprises and other industry entities with certain transformation conditions reasonably.
The yield and spread of high-yield RMB bonds have risen sharply, and in 2022, it has exceeded the peak of yield and spread reached during the epidemic in 2020. In 2020, the yield to maturity and spread of high-yield RMB bonds experienced liquidity shock, Evergrande event shock and Yongmei default shock successively. After entering 202 1, it was successively affected by the upward interest rate of US debt, the continuous fermentation of negative news of Evergrande and the breach of contract in Fantasia. In 2022, the yield and spread of high-yield RMB bonds have risen to the highest level in recent years.