In 2007, two major issues in the field of international nuclear non-proliferation have been the focus of attention, one is the DPRK nuclear issue and the other is the Iranian nuclear issue. Over the past year, these two difficult problems that have plagued the international community for many years have shown two different trends. The DPRK nuclear issue tends to ease, while the Iranian nuclear issue is deadlocked.
Different routes
If the process of resolving the North Korean nuclear issue in 2006 is still faltering in difficulties and twists and turns, then it can be said that there has been an obvious "warming up" phenomenon this year.
Since February this year, the six parties to the DPRK nuclear issue have held many talks and published important documents, which have pointed out the direction, defined specific plans and laid a good foundation for solving the DPRK nuclear issue. With the settlement of the transfer of frozen funds, North Korea announced the closure and sealing of Yongbyon nuclear facility in mid-July, thus taking an important step to solve the DPRK nuclear issue.
Since then, the American expert group 165438+ went to Yongbyon on1early October to participate in the disablement of three nuclear facilities in North Korea. At present, North Korea is preparing to declare all its nuclear programs, and other relevant parties are also planning to fulfill their corresponding obligations.
In sharp contrast, the Iranian nuclear issue reached a deadlock and once experienced a dangerous moment.
In February last year (12) and March this year, the United Nations Security Council twice passed sanctions resolutions against Iran's nuclear issue, demanding that it suspend sensitive uranium enrichment activities, but Iran remained unmoved. The United States said that "all means are on the table" to solve the Iranian nuclear issue. At the end of March and the beginning of April, the crisis reached its peak, and Iran announced that it had entered the stage of industrial-grade nuclear fuel production. The United States sent three aircraft carriers to exercise in the Gulf region, exerting unprecedented military pressure. Iran has also held many military exercises and warned that it will use various means to resist foreign aggression, including cutting off the Strait of Hormuz's energy transportation channels.
After several months of stalemate between the two sides, Iran began to show a flexible posture in July, actively cooperated with the International Atomic Energy Agency, allowed international inspectors to inspect the Arak heavy water reactor, agreed to formulate a specific action plan to clarify the outstanding issues in Iran's nuclear program, and held talks with EU representative Javier Solana many times, which made many countries see the "dawn" of solving the problems through negotiations. In the latest report on the Iranian nuclear issue 165438+ submitted in mid-October, ElBaradei, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, believed that Iran's "cooperation in clarifying its nuclear program is' sufficient'", but the report did not give a clear conclusion on whether Iran has developed nuclear weapons, and confirmed that Iran has not suspended uranium enrichment activities as required by the Security Council resolution. 165438+1On October 30th, EU representative Javier Solana expressed "disappointment" at the results of the talks after meeting with Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Jalili, claiming that the EU's efforts to persuade Iran to suspend uranium enrichment in the past 18 months had not made progress. The Iranian nuclear issue is once again deadlocked.
Different reasons
There are both external and internal reasons for the "warming up" of the DPRK nuclear issue. The unanimous desire and voice of the international community for the peaceful settlement of the DPRK nuclear issue, especially the unremitting efforts made by neighboring countries including China to promote the settlement of the DPRK nuclear issue, have formed a strong external driving force.
As an internal reason, the opposing sides of the DPRK nuclear issue-North Korea and the United States-have realized through several years of contests that pressure and threats will not only help solve the problem, but will further complicate the problem and seriously affect their respective national interests. Therefore, the two sides timely adjust their strategic thinking and take necessary measures to push the nuclear issue towards a "win-win" direction.
The reasons for the deadlock in the Iranian nuclear issue are more complicated. There are serious differences between Iran and the international community on whether to suspend uranium enrichment activities. Iran believes that it is a member of the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and has the right to peaceful development and utilization of nuclear energy, so it refuses to implement Security Council resolutions. However, western countries accuse Iran of uranium enrichment activities in order to make nuclear weapons, and believe that Iran is stalling for time to develop nuclear weapons.
The Iranian people have a strong national self-esteem, and the constant threat of use of force by the United States, the sanctions imposed by the Security Council and the recent unilateral sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran are unacceptable to Iran. In addition, although the United States has been actively promoting a new round of sanctions, Russia and the European Union have different views on the issue of sanctions. Iran has a tough attitude towards the United States, taking the initiative towards Russia and Europe and gaining room for continued confrontation.
A subtle prospect
On February 1, US President George H.W. Bush sent a letter to Kim Jong Il, the top leader of North Korea, urging North Korea to fully disclose its nuclear program. This is the first time that George H.W. Bush sent a personal letter to Kim Jong Il in his seven years in power, which attracted the attention of all parties.
The United States and other countries demand that North Korea stop developing nuclear weapons and fully disclose its nuclear program. According to the principle of "action for action", while fulfilling its obligations, North Korea also requires the United States and other five countries to fulfill their respective obligations. Removing North Korea from the list of "countries aiding terrorism" in the United States and ending the application of the "Trading with the Enemy" to North Korea are the most concerned issues for North Korea at this stage.
As for the Iranian nuclear issue, Iran believes that the report of the International Atomic Energy Agency proves the "peaceful nature" of Iran's nuclear program and "Iran's innocence". However, the United States insisted on launching new sanctions, and the positions of European countries such as Britain and France, which were originally committed to negotiation and mediation, also became tough. Under their strong push, new sanctions seem "imminent".
However, just as the Iranian nuclear issue reached a deadlock, the US intelligence agency 65438+released a report on February 3, saying that Iran stopped the research and development of nuclear weapons as early as four years ago. This report questioned the Bush administration's tough policy towards Iraq. Although Bush's position on Iraq remains unchanged after the publication of this report, a senior official of the International Atomic Energy Agency said that this report confirmed that Iran's nuclear program has not yet posed a direct and urgent threat, and the international community still has time to seek a solution through negotiations.
How will the two major nuclear issues evolve in 2008? Some experts on international issues believe that the prospect of gradually resolving the DPRK nuclear issue is optimistic, but there are also uncertainties; However, under the influence of various complicated factors, the Iranian nuclear issue may still be a protracted "tug-of-war", but the possibility of a "turning point" cannot be ruled out. In 2008, the road to maintaining the international nuclear non-proliferation system is still difficult, and the road to solving the two major nuclear issues is still difficult. All parties concerned must be prepared to make strenuous efforts.
background
In 2007
Iranian nuclear memorabilia
On February 22nd, Director General ElBaradei of the International Atomic Energy Agency submitted a report on Iran's implementation of Security Council resolution 1737 to the IAEA Board of Governors and the UN Security Council. The report found that Iran failed to stop uranium enrichment activities within the prescribed time limit.
On March 24th, the Security Council unanimously adopted resolution 1747 on the Iranian nuclear issue, which strengthened the sanctions against Iran's nuclear and missile programs, and stressed the need to continue to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue through negotiations.
On April 9, Iraqi President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced that Iraq has been able to produce nuclear fuel on an "industrial scale".
On May 23rd, ElBaradei submitted a report on Iran's nuclear issue to the Security Council, and concluded that Iran not only failed to comply with Security Council resolution 1747 to suspend uranium enrichment activities, but expanded its uranium enrichment activities.
On August 2 1, Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency reached an agreement on an action plan to solve the outstanding problems in Iran's nuclear program. According to the agreement, Iran will provide sensitive information about the nuclear issue to the agency before the end of the year and answer outstanding questions.
On August 28th, Ahmadinejad said that Iran is already a "nuclear country" and will continue to pursue its plan of peaceful use of nuclear energy.
On August 30th, ElBaradei submitted an internal report to the members of the International Atomic Energy Agency, arguing that Iran has made progress in cooperating with the Agency to clarify the outstanding issues in its nuclear program, but Iran has not suspended its uranium enrichment activities.
On 25 and 26 September, the Senate and the House of Representatives of the United States successively passed bills to strengthen sanctions against Iran, calling on the State Council to identify the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization and impose sanctions on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and its subordinate institutions.
On October 25th, 65438/KLOC-0, the US government announced that it would impose sanctions on more than 20 government agencies, banks and individuals, including the Iraqi Ministry of Defence, to punish Iran for "supporting terrorism" and "engaging in the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction".
165438+1October 15 ElBaradei submitted a report on the Iranian nuclear issue to the member States of the International Atomic Energy Agency. The report believes that Iraq's cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency in clarifying its nuclear program is "sufficient", but the report does not reach a clear conclusion on whether Iraq develops nuclear weapons.
On February 3, 65438, the US intelligence agency released a report on Iran's nuclear issue, saying that Iran stopped its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and has not restarted it so far. However, US President Bush claimed that Iran is still a threat and the international community should continue to maintain pressure on Iran.
65438+On February 4th, Iranian Foreign Minister Mottaki delivered a speech, welcoming the report of American intelligence agencies, saying that the report proved the peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear activities. On the 5th, Ahmadinejad delivered a speech, arguing that the report actually declared the "victory" of Iran's nuclear program. Since then, Iran has denied the contents of the report that Iran developed nuclear weapons before 2003, saying that the report is "only partially accurate".
In 2007
Memorabilia of North Korea's nuclear issue
The North Korean nuclear issue began in the early 1990s. In order to solve the North Korean nuclear issue peacefully, the China government actively mediated and facilitated the six-party talks on the North Korean nuclear issue in August 2003, which were attended by China, North Korea, the United States, South Korea, Russia and Japan. Six rounds of six-party talks based on the principle of peaceful settlement of the DPRK nuclear issue have been held so far.
On September 19, 2005, the fourth round of six-party talks passed the first * * * statement (September 19 * * statement) after two stages of arduous negotiations: North Korea promised to give up all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs; The United States confirms that it has no intention to attack or invade North Korea with nuclear or conventional weapons. However, since then, due to the "financial sanctions" imposed by the DPRK and the United States, the six-party talks have reached a deadlock.
On February 13 this year, the third phase meeting of the fifth round of six-party talks on the Korean nuclear issue adopted the * * * document (document 2. 13 * * *), including the closure and sealing of the Yongbyon nuclear facility by the DPRK, and all parties agreed to provide the DPRK with economic and financial resources equivalent to 1 10,000 tons of heavy oil.
At the end of June, the funding problem affecting the DPRK-US talks was finally solved, and the DPRK immediately invited a working delegation of the International Atomic Energy Agency to visit the DPRK.
On July 14, the first batch of 6,200 tons of heavy oil transported by South Korea arrived at Pioneer Port in North Korea, and the DPRK closed Yongbyon nuclear facility. On the same day, the inspectors of the International Atomic Energy Agency returned to North Korea after five years and went to Yongbyon to supervise and verify the closure of nuclear facilities.
On July 20th, the meeting of heads of the sixth round of six-party talks concluded in Beijing and issued a press release. The parties reached a four-point framework for the next stage of work and formulated a three-step implementation "path".
654381October 3, the second phase meeting of the sixth round of six-party talks on the Korean nuclear issue adopted the second phase document on the implementation of the * * * statement. According to the document, North Korea will complete the disablement of Yongbyon nuclear facility and fully declare its nuclear program before the end of this year; The United States acted according to North Korea's wishes and fulfilled its commitment to North Korea.
On June 1 65438+1October1,the US nuclear expert group arrived in North Korea to participate in the disablement of Yongbyon nuclear facility.
65438+On February 3-5, US Assistant Secretary of State and head of the US delegation to the six-party talks on the Korean nuclear issue visited the DPRK, inspected the progress of disablement of nuclear facilities in Yongbyon area, and discussed with DPRK officials the DPRK's declaration of its nuclear program. On the 5th, Hill handed over a personal letter from US President Bush to North Korean leader Kim Jong Il. In his letter, Bush said that the normalization of relations between the two countries is the ultimate goal.