Can a auto fashion, whose market value has been halved, return to value?

On February 5th, Aauto Quicker took the lead in ringing the bell of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. On the first day of listing, the stock price soared 194%, and the market value exceeded 1 trillion Hong Kong dollars, making it the sixth largest company in Hong Kong.

However, since the end of February, Aauto Quicker's share price performance has been declining, and its market value has been halved by nearly half. As of the close of Hong Kong stocks on July 20th, Aauto Quicker fell 2.46% to HK$ 138.8, with a market value of only HK$ 577.429 billion.

Screenshot from: Snowball

Why did this software, once valued by the capital market, end up in such a situation with Tik Tok's "two kings" in the field of short video? In the case of getting farther and farther away from Tik Tok, what can Aauto Quicker do to restore its market value?

Aote Fast and Tik Tok's "Watershed"

On 20 1 1 year, Aauto Quicker came out as a GIF animation tool software. 20 13 transformed into a short video social platform after introducing the sharing function, and positioned it as "a short video social platform for everyone to record and share their lives". Then on 20 15, with the advent of the era of smartphone popularization and the decline of mobile traffic cost, Aauto faster gradually opened the market.

According to its disclosure, in 20 16, Aauto Quicker had more than 400 million users and 40 million daily active users, making it the largest video social platform in China at that time.

However, with the appearance of 2065 438+06 Tik Tok, the market of a auto faster was gradually divided by it. Tik Tok positioned itself as "high-quality content+algorithm-driven". With its unique interactive interface of cold start and full automatic playback, Tik Tok subverted the original horizontal and one-screen display functions of short video applications and quickly harvested the market.

After the Spring Festival of 20 18, Tik Tok ushered in explosive growth, with an increase of nearly 30 million DAU. Since May, it has surpassed Aauto faster, with daily users exceeding 65,438+500 million and monthly users exceeding 300 million, becoming the first short video track.

Tik Tok's overtaking has created the myth of "breaking through hundreds of short videos and surpassing Aauto faster", and it also shows that short video tracks can derive two diametrically opposite development paths.

Aauto Quicker focuses on the third-and fourth-tier markets and below, focusing on fan socialization and fairness, and the dual-column interface has strong community attributes; On the other hand, Tik Tok focuses on the first-and second-tier markets, focusing on high-quality content. Most of the algorithms are centralized header distribution, and the community attribute is weak. This makes everyone's label very clear. Aote is soon called "old iron", and Tik Tok talks about "interest".

A user is sticky, and a user is younger and more willing to pay. However, when the "old iron" Aauto quickless is no longer "iron" and the number of users is much lower than Tik Tok, how can Aauto quickless realize the return of value?

What can be done to restore the market value?

According to the data released by both parties, as of June 5438+ 10, 2020, the number of daily active users of Tik Tok has exceeded 400 million; As of March 3, 20265438, the number of daily active users of A Auto Fast reached 300 million. The difference of 654.38 billion daily users makes the automatic car lag behind Tik Tok much faster, and an independent innovation is urgently needed.

But how to change it? Can we narrow the gap with Tik Tok and restore the market value?

(1) Create content ecology, build high barriers, and pay attention to user experience and anchor training.

At present, the short video industry has entered the stage of stock competition, and vertical development and content ecology have become the main development logic of head players. In this case, content experience and content supply are very important.

At the beginning of July, Aauto Quicker made a new round of organizational restructuring, with a lot of actions on the content side. Including winning a series of sports copyrights and becoming a rights-holding broadcaster of the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games and the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics; The Entertainment and Music Department reports directly to Senior Vice President Yan Qiang.

Since its establishment, Aauto Quicker has also developed from a simple UGC short video to today's content ecological platform, covering dozens of content and industry categories such as food, games, sports, knowledge and automobiles.

Similarly, the ecological power of Tik Tok content should not be underestimated. In March this year, the long-term ecological planning of artistic content was announced, and the first report card of Dou Art Plan was launched in the industry. In addition, the content ecology of Tik Tok also covers food, popular science, art, sports, automobiles and other content and industry categories.

Content ecology has become the development focus of short video platform, and content experience and anchor training are the most important links to build content ecology. So how does Aauto get the content done faster? For example, after winning the licensed broadcaster of Tokyo Olympic Games, how can Aauto attract more users faster?

Because the users in Aauto faster are mainly students and middle-aged and elderly people, they are not the target users of sports events. Therefore, Aauto Quicker will open people's interest points through homemade variety shows. Its first variety show "Olympic Grade One" will invite well-known sports hosts, Olympic champions, celebrity artists, and Aauto faster talents to enhance user interaction and attract more young users to a greater extent through simulated classes and interactive games.

At the same time, the author also suggests that Aauto Quicker platform should support sports event anchors, produce more high-quality content and enhance the richness of sports events on the platform.

(2) Develop strengths and avoid weaknesses, and tap the greater potential of e-commerce.

What does auto rely on to make money faster? Live rewards, advertising space marketing and e-commerce sales are all drawn into these three businesses.

But as the market says, Aauto Quicker's basic dish is live broadcast, marketing is the main idea, and in the long run, it still depends on e-commerce.

According to the financial report data, in 20021q1year, the average monthly paying users of Aauto Quicker's live broadcast were 52.4 million, an increase of only 3. 1% from the previous month. Behind this is that the era of live broadcast rewards has passed, the national laws and policies have been tightened, the industry has entered the stage of competition in the Red Sea, and anchors have been unable to make a living by rewarding.

In addition, Aauto Quicker's "decentralization" strategy is not conducive to the long-term development of this business.

Mainly short video advertisements are mostly effect advertisements, and the click-through rate and conversion rate payment determine the advertiser's sense of existence. Therefore, the more accurate Tik Tok's centralized algorithm is, the more suitable it is. However, Aauto faster's "decentralized" traffic system is not conducive to the development of this business.

Therefore, in addition to live broadcasts and advertisements, what Aauto Quicker needs to see for a long time is the development of e-commerce. The financial report shows that in 20021q1year, the revenue of Aauto's faster e-commerce business surged by 589% year-on-year to 65,438+75 million yuan, accounting for 7. 1% of the revenue.

The growth rate of live e-commerce is higher than that of peers, making e-commerce become the most potential cash business of Aauto faster, but how to tap this advantage?

Now Aauto Quicker is also selling cars. Take this as a case study. How does Aauto do e-commerce faster?

First, rely on high-quality anchors;

Second, it is reliable to get goods by car companies or dealers.

One is to strengthen the anchor's support plan, and the other is to establish cooperation with car companies and distributors.

Aauto Quicker's strong community attribute, high anchor trust and user stickiness are beneficial to the cultivation of anchor support plan. However, due to the loss of users, A Auto Quick's high-quality anchors are also lost to a certain extent, so A Auto Quick has to strengthen the user experience to attract anchors and regain the market by relying on the "trust" card.

To strengthen the cooperation between car companies, it is necessary to establish cooperative relations with more car companies. It is reported that A Auto Speeders recently won the trademark of "A Auto Speeders", and its A Auto Speeders store announced at the beginning of the year that it had reached an in-depth cooperation with Wuling Automobile to launch a limited edition yellow car jointly owned by Wuling Hong Guang MINI EV.

For users, having a reliable anchor and a reliable car source is easier to stimulate everyone's desire to buy.

Generally speaking, one of Aauto Quicker's efforts to recover the market value is to do a good job in the short video itself, support the anchor and continue to pay attention to the content; The other is to tap the potential business and give full play to the maximum potential of live e-commerce.

"Sinking" is an unchangeable theme, and at the same time, we should expand the pace of "upward"

Finding the growth point of the company's business is a good way to help the market value recover or continue to develop, but it is particularly important to accurately formulate the strategic policy behind it. If Aauto Quicker wants to continue to be "iron", how should the strategy be laid out?

Nowadays, the online traffic of the Internet is more and more expensive, so it is imperative to find an incremental market. As a result, the sinking of the Internet has become extremely hot, but Aauto Quicker has always been the "sinking king" of the short video industry, so where is its future incremental field?

According to the company's development logic, Aauto Quicker's future strategy must be to deepen the sinking market and enter the first-and second-tier markets at the same time. This is also the case.

In September last year, Aauto Quicker announced the full launch of version 8.0, launched brand upgrade at the same time, and built a diversified content community around people and content, which attracted many first-and second-tier users for the platform.

Another big strategy to attract first-and second-tier users, Aauto Quicker, invited Jay Chou to enter the platform. It is reported that Jay Chou held a magic live broadcast in Aauto Quicker, which directly brought 68 million live viewers and 380 million interactions to the platform. At the same time, the fan groups of different age groups brought by Jay Chou also make up for the shortcomings of Aauto's faster users in the first-and second-tier markets.

The data also shows that the penetration rate of first-and second-tier users in Aauto Quicker is increasing. Aurora data shows that in 2020, the proportion of first-line/new first-line/second-line users of Aauto faster will increase from 38% to 40%.

However, Aauto Quicker kept "moving up" and did not forget to grab the sinking chassis. Moreover, the sinking of Tik Tok makes it impossible to slack off.

In August last year, Zhang Nan, president of Tik Tok, said at the Shanghai Creators' Conference that "the total number of daily active users in the short video industry will reach 654.38 billion." The side announced that it will continue to compete for short video incremental traffic, but the battle position has shifted from first-and second-tier cities to the sinking market.

To this end, Tik Tok has launched an extreme version, but before that, Aauto Quicker has already launched an extreme version, and the two sides are further fighting in the sinking market.

Based on this, Aauto Quicker will continue to dig deep into the sinking market, and then break the circle and go to the first-and second-tier markets.

Another big incremental market for Aauto Quicker is overseas market. The financial report data shows that in 20021year, a auto faster made a certain breakthrough in the strategy of going to sea. Short videos such as Kwai and SnackVideo of the overseas version of Aauto Quicker are more grounded overseas, and the monthly active users in overseas markets have exceeded 1 100 million. By April, monthly active users exceeded1.500 million.

On the other hand, in July last year, when the global monthly active users of TikTok overseas Tiktok approached 700 million, the more grounded overseas version of Aauto Quicker still has a lot of room for improvement.

Generally speaking, the decline in the current market value of Aauto quicks is related to the widening distance of Tik Tok and the ceiling of the live reward business. However, Aauto quicks still has a lot of room for development and has achieved good results in live e-commerce and overseas markets.

The same is true of the feedback from the capital market. CITIC Securities is optimistic about the strong growth of A Auto Fast advertising and e-commerce revenue, and is expected to accelerate commercialization in the medium term, giving the company a target price of HK$ 365,438+04 and maintaining a "buy" rating; Guo Sheng Securities believes that in 20021-2023, the revenue of Aauto Quicker will reach 88.7 billion yuan, 125 billion yuan and162.7 billion yuan, still maintaining an average growth rate of about 40% year-on-year.

Therefore, how Aauto Quicker can continue to be "iron" in the future depends on whether it can firmly hold the sinking chassis, continue to "go up", and open up the imagination space with the help of more incremental markets such as e-commerce and overseas.

Author: Ye

Text | Guo Song Finance (songguocaijing 1)