Author: Xinghua Dabai

Link: /question/348184222/answer/960319526

Source: Zhihu

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(1) The dollar tide

In the global industrial chain system dominated by the United States, the dollar tide is the circulating capital flow.

Wherever the dollars flow, there will be prosperity.

Wherever the U.S. dollar withdraws, there will be a crisis.

In other words, the U.S. dollar has experienced a cycle of tidal fluctuations around the world, and it is during this tidal process that the United States has been shearing the wool of countries around the world.

How exactly is it done?

The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes and interest rate cuts are the baton used by the United States to control this dollar tide.

Once the Federal Reserve enters the interest rate cutting cycle and starts printing money to flood the world, surging U.S. dollars will flood the world.

Once the Federal Reserve enters a rate-raising cycle, the water that the Federal Reserve released before will flow back to the United States.

This time out and in, a big harvest is completed.

Some people may not quite understand how the flow of U.S. dollars is accomplished.

The reason is that after the US dollars flow out, they do not lie in banks in other countries to earn interest, but instead flow out to make various investments.

After the United States released its U.S. dollars and made various purchases around the world, the world economy naturally entered a prosperity cycle.

At this time, an invisible force will push global asset prices to rise collectively. After rising for several years, these US dollars released by the United States will reap a large amount of value-added returns.

Once the U.S. raises interest rates and begins to withdraw U.S. dollars, the U.S. dollars that were previously released will return to the U.S. with several times the value-added return.

We can give another vivid example.

When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, it is like driving a group of sheep out to graze.

Wait until these sheep eat up all the grass outside and become fat one by one.

At this time, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates and drive these sheep back home to be slaughtered.

This allows the American shepherd to live a life of extreme wealth.

This kind of outflow and inflow allows the United States to reap huge profits in return, and actually loots the world's wealth.

This is how the United States can maintain its high consumption model for half a century by regularly looting the world's wealth for more than ten years.

In fact, Americans consume as much as they want, and people all over the world pay the bill.

(2) Aircraft carriers

In fact, such a dollar tide alone is not enough to complete such a big harvest.

First of all, when American shepherds let their sheep out to graze, they must arrange some shepherd dogs to protect the sheep. Otherwise, if the delicious sheep are left alone outside, they may be killed. The jackals, tigers and leopards outside ate it.

Therefore, shepherds themselves must have guns in their hands to protect these sheep.

As the most powerful country in the world, the United States uses sufficient force to protect the sheep it has released.

Otherwise, the sheep released by the United States would have eaten up all the grass of other people’s homes and would have been slaughtered long ago.

It is precisely because the United States has the largest aircraft carrier battle group that it has been able to repeatedly harvest the world, while others dare to be angry but dare not speak out.

After seeing this, everyone must understand why the United States spends trillions of dollars in military expenditures every year to maintain such a huge aircraft carrier battle group system.

Because these aircraft carriers are the top priority for the United States to be able to complete such a harvesting model.

And everyone must understand why our country is sparing no effort to develop aircraft carriers.

Because if the RMB wants to be internationalized, it is an inevitable choice of the times for China’s aircraft carriers to go global.

But only the US dollar and aircraft carriers are not enough to complete such a model of harvesting the world.

American harvesting mode also has the third most important weapon.

That is the global industrial chain system.

(3) Globalized industrial chain

Why is the globalized industrial chain the third most important weapon for Americans to harvest the world?

Because the globalized industrial chain is like a profit harvester.

The dollars used to help release can maximize profits.

Let’s use the example of the flock of sheep.

After the Americans cut interest rates and let the sheep out, on the one hand they need shepherd dogs to protect the sheep, and on the other hand they need a harvester to help the sheep graze more efficiently.

Why do we need to eat grass more efficiently?

Because the American dollar tide is very cyclical, the interest rate cut cycle usually lasts about seven years.

So in these seven years, how much grass the sheep can eat will affect how much profit Americans can harvest in this dollar tidal cycle.

If you just let the sheep graze on their own, the efficiency will be too slow.

Even if you encounter some grass that is tougher, some sheep may not be able to bite because of their bad teeth.

At this time, a harvester called "Globalized Industrial Chain" is needed, which can be held in the hands of shepherds and directly help the sheep harvest fat grass.

In this way, the sheep can graze most efficiently and maximize the harvesting effect of a round of dollar tides.

So how does this harvester called "Globalized Industrial Chain" help Americans cut grass?

We first need to understand the three-dimensional system of the global industrial chain led by the United States.

The modern globalized industrial chain system is basically led by the United States and can be roughly divided into three categories: resource countries, producing countries, and consumer countries.

Consuming countries: For example, the United States is the world's largest consumer country.

Producing countries: countries with developed manufacturing industries such as China, Germany, and Japan.

Resource countries: such as Russia, Middle East oil countries, and Latin American countries.

In this three-dimensional system, the consumer country has the highest status. As the saying goes, the rich are the boss.

As the world’s largest consumer country, the United States is also the country that dominates this industrial chain system. It is located at the top of this industrial chain division of labor system and has the hegemony to design this industrial chain.

This allows the United States to earn the largest part of the profits of the global industrial chain, and then distribute the remaining meat to the producing countries, while the resource countries can only drink some leftover soup.

This can be seen from the profit distribution of Apple’s industry chain.

For each iPhone, Apple accounts for 58.5% of its profits, companies from South Korea, Japan and other countries account for about 10% of the profits, and Chinese companies only account for 2% of the profits.

In the Apple industry chain, Samsung, which makes the most money besides Apple, has a foreign shareholding ratio of as high as 56%. This is actually an international company controlled by Koreans, but more than half of the money it makes goes to Wall Street.

Apple’s own ownership structure is also controlled by Wall Street.

The final result is that as one of the most profitable companies in the world, most of the money Apple actually makes goes to Wall Street.

This is actually a microcosm of the profit distribution of the global industrial chain in the past few decades.

Americans make a big profit, other producing countries make a small profit, and resource countries get the leftovers.

So in this three-dimensional system, consumer countries have the highest status, followed by producer countries, and resource countries are the weakest.

From 1974 to the present, the producing country has experienced three generations of replacement.

The first-generation producing countries were Germany and Japan, so the 1970s and 1980s were the most prosperous periods for the economies of Germany and Japan.

But with the Plaza Accord and the Louvre Agreement, both Japan and Germany were ripped off by the United States and fell into a long period of economic downturn.

Following them are the Southeast Asian countries headed by the Four Asian Tigers, which are actually second-generation producers.

However, with the Asian financial crisis in 1997, the second generation of producing countries was still brutally harvested by the United States.

After this, the third generation producer is China.

To put it bluntly, the producing countries do hard work.

But no matter what, hard work is labor that creates value. Although most of this value is exploited by Wall Street capitalists, at least you can still save a lot of money by doing hard work.

First-generation production country: Germany and Japan.

Second-generation producing countries: Southeast Asian countries headed by the Four Asian Tigers.

Third generation producing country: China.

The economy has taken off because of doing hard work for the United States.

It’s just that the first two generations of producing countries were harvested by the blue side during several economic crises, and after harvesting, they were abandoned because the value of labor had been drained.

At present, only the third generation of manufacturing countries, that is, China, is still supporting the world's manufacturing tasks alone.

Since China joined the WTO in 2001, China has quickly become the world's factory.

Especially after the second-generation crisis broke out in 2008, European and American countries entered a bubble mode of quantitative easing and borrowing to stimulate the economy.

However, after the crazy monetary stimulus to stimulate the economy, people found that the inflation rate was not as serious as imagined.

Some supporters of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) shout that this debt-based expansionary fiscal policy is sustainable.

But in fact, the reason why the world has not experienced hyperinflation in the past ten years is because China has assumed the role of the world's factory and exported a large amount of high-quality products to the world through its low labor value. Cheap goods.

It is precisely because of the existence of China, the world's factory, that the world has been able to print money frantically without triggering hyperinflation.

However, no one is born just for hard work.

Just like Germany, Japan, and the Four Asian Tigers, these two generations of producing countries worked hard for a period of time and then came ashore to enjoy life.

China is not content with just doing hard work, and has been preparing for economic transformation since 2015.

But this time the Americans disagreed.

Because unlike Germany, Japan, and the Four Asian Tigers, China is too big.

The first two generations of producing countries, because they were not strong enough, could go ashore even if they did not do hard work. It is not enough to pose a threat to the globalized industrial chain system of the United States. It can only do some easier work under the arrangement of the United States.

But China is different. China is too big, and it is a completely independent country. It is also the only country in the world that can compete with the United States in all aspects.

Once China completes its economic transformation, the global industrial chain led by the United States will fall apart. A new global industrial chain led by China will be born from this.

This is why the Red Party Made 2025 will be regarded as a thorn in the side of the United States, and it is also the top priority of the current unspeakable content.

Because, Red Square Manufacturing 2025 is actually the fourth industrial revolution. Once completed, Red Square will complete the economic transformation and develop from low-end manufacturing to high-end manufacturing.

This means that the red party will replace the blue party as the leader of the global industrial chain and enjoy the most generous profits in the global industrial chain.

This is why there is a battle between red and blue. Put it this way, everyone should be able to understand a lot.