Not long ago, Zeng Yu, chairman of CATL, spoke at the China Automobile Blue Book Forum. One of the sobering facts is that in the first half of the year, European new energy vehicle sales have surpassed China, and it is expected that in 2020, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will exceed that of China. So will sales.
There is a wave of "European fear" in the car circle. It seems that no one expected that China, which is betting heavily on new energy routes, would be able to do so easily during this special period of the epidemic after leading sales for 5 years. It was overtaken by Europe. In 2008, we proposed a new energy strategy for the first time and gave the automotive industry high hopes for "overtaking in corners." Looking at it today, it seems that this goal is getting further and further away from us?
But the little detective doesn’t think so. In my opinion, the current situation is like the NBA playoffs. The two teams have already reached 3:3, and the next five years will really enter. Tie-break. Whether new energy can achieve "overtaking in corners", and whether Chinese car companies can surpass foreign car companies, will also be determined in the next five years!
■? Is it really scary that European sales surpassed China?
The data that many people may have seen is the table above. In the first half of the year, the registrations of pure electric and plug-in hybrid models in Europe were 269,000 and 231,000 respectively, totaling 500,000; Electric and plug-in hybrid sales were 378,000 and 108,000 respectively, for a total of 486,000. In contrast, Europe did sell 14,000 more new energy vehicles than China.
In fact, when we refine it into specific car model categories, it is not difficult to see a characteristic: 44% of the new energy vehicles sold in Europe are plug-in hybrid models, while 44% of the new energy vehicles sold in China are plug-in hybrid models. There are 79 pure electric models. In other words, as a "complete form" of new energy, China's pure electric vehicle sales still lead Europe by 104,000 vehicles! In the pure electric model camp, if we break it down by level, the waistline of China's pure electric vehicles is composed of A-class cars and B-class cars, while the waistline of European pure electric vehicles is composed of A0-class and A-class cars.
Such sales distribution is related to the geographical conditions of Central Europe and users’ car-purchasing motivations. There are many European countries, but each country has a small land area. European car owners have a preference for small cars since the era of gasoline cars. A pure electric vehicle with an actual range of 200 to 300 kilometers is enough for a European family to meet their "cross-border travel" travel needs. At the same time, Europe's policy orientation is a two-pronged approach to PHEV and BEV. Therefore, from the perspective of vehicle cost, many European consumers are more willing to choose plug-in hybrid models.
In contrast, China’s subsidies for pure electric vehicles are significantly higher than those for plug-in hybrids, and there is a trend of eliminating plug-ins. At the same time, China has a more detailed subsidy gradient for pure electric range and energy density. , and Chinese consumers have a stronger demand for space. These factors make Chinese consumers more inclined to choose models with higher positioning.
Taking into account the differences in the proportion of pure electric sales and the level of models sold, I think China is still ahead of Europe in terms of gold content. It’s not that if we sold 14,000 fewer vehicles in the first half of the year, our overall strategy would have been lost. What I am more concerned about is whether European car companies (especially German brands) will "kill everyone" in China after the epidemic!
■? How do European car companies "encircle and suppress" Chinese consumers?
The so-called "whatever doesn't kill me will make me stronger" has continued to affect the Volkswagen Group's "emissions" for five years. The "gate" incident did not destroy it, but made this giant unswervingly shift its strategic focus to new energy. Volkswagen's killer move also evolved from the era of fuel vehicles - the MEB pure electric platform developed based on the MQB platform.
According to Volkswagen’s plan, 8 MEB factories will be established around the world by 2022, with China owning two. Up to now, FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC Volkswagen have built production lines and factories for the MEB platform respectively, with a total production capacity of 600,000 units per year. Before 2025, Volkswagen will launch no less than 10 models based on the MEB platform in China, targeting cars, SUVs and even vans. Among them, the I.D. series will become its leading product in the pure electric field.
Taking into account the flexible and changeable characteristics of the MEB platform, brands under the group such as Audi and Skoda will surely benefit.
In general, taking advantage of the platform to "have more children and fight in groups" is a business strategy that Volkswagen has firmly believed in since the era of fuel vehicles.
In contrast to Volkswagen's "wolf pack tactics", BMW's pace appears relatively conservative and realistic. In recent years, BMW has adopted a "fuel, plug-in hybrid, and pure electric" strategy. The domestically produced BMW iX3 will soon be launched in China and will be available for pre-order, with delivery starting next year. The iX3 is built on a fuel vehicle platform. It uses an excitation synchronous motor that does not contain rare earth materials, which is not common nowadays. It has a comprehensive cruising range of 500 kilometers. The little detective blindly guessed that the price of the iX3 may be between 450,000 and 550,000 yuan, and it will not be sold in large quantities. , test the market. According to BMW's plan, by the end of 2021, BMW will launch at least 5 pure electric models, including iX3, i4, iNEXT SUV and Mini Cooper SE.
In the next few years, BMW will rely on "gasoline and electric compatible" products to enter the market. Do you think B is a little inferior? Don’t forget that as early as the last five years, when domestic new energy vehicles were still in the technological upgrading stage, BMW came up with radical products such as i3 and i8 that were enough to write car history. Obviously, BMW started early and has deep accumulation in the new energy field. "Your uncle is still your uncle"!
BMW will release the pure electric 7 Series in 2022, but Mercedes-Benz, which is one step ahead of it, is already gearing up. Mercedes-Benz hopes to quickly launch 5 pure electric models and 20 plug-in models on the market, from A-class to S-class, from GLA to GLE, among which plug-in models will become a normal product of Mercedes-Benz. In the pure electric field, EQC is already testing market feedback, and the more entry-level EQA will also be released next year. The Mercedes-Benz EQ series will also launch B, E, S, and V, and relevant trademarks have been registered in China. In addition, it is rumored that Mercedes-Benz will discontinue the production of the fuel version of the Big G in three years and launch a pure electric EQG - which is a good idea!
What’s even more frightening is that in the next five years, the ratio of joint venture shares will be gradually liberalized, and more of the money earned by foreign car companies will go into the pockets of foreign brands, and China happens to have relatively complete new energy infrastructure and User base. How many domestic users will foreign brands take away? Can Chinese brands hold their own? There is no need to be overly pessimistic. From an objective perspective, I have summarized one major disadvantage and three major advantages of Chinese brands.
■?Disadvantage: The gap in brand appeal is still large
There is no way, the brand will always be a big mountain in the automobile industry. At present, the high-end brands that have been established in China are only a few such as Hongqi and Weilai. Brands such as Lynk & Co, WEY, and Xpeng are known as high-end and are affordable. Premium? Doesn't exist! Gaohe and Lantu still lack one thing - at the brand level, it may be difficult for them to leverage foreign "century-old brands" in a short period of time.
Think about it, if foreign brands follow their pace and focus on launching products in China, then various market segments from affordable to high-end will be filled with models of foreign brands. Although the post-85s generation with a more open consumption concept is becoming the leader of public opinion on new energy vehicle consumption, once "German high-end cars" begin to be introduced and given a relatively sincere price, most domestic users who have transformed from traditional power vehicles (They are actually the ones leading the consumption) I’m afraid they will still give warnings about true fragrance.
■?Advantage 1: We can not suffer from product strength
Based on the driving system characteristics of electric vehicles, it will be difficult for luxury brands to retain obvious driving experience in the field of pure electric vehicles in the future. Advantages. The research and development energy of electric vehicles can be allocated more to chassis tuning, Internet of Vehicles, human-computer interaction, and ADAS. Our local brands have actually established certain advantages in this regard since the era of fuel vehicles.
When Audi introduced the Android system to A4L and made it an important marketing selling point, our car-machine functions and human-computer interaction have already achieved very powerful natural semantic recognition, as well as in-depth Internet customization services. Many Chinese brands are working hard to explore and build their own in-vehicle service ecosystem, and continue to optimize and upgrade through OTA, thereby retaining their own users.
Without engines and transmissions, it is easier for Chinese brands to catch up with or even surpass foreign brands in terms of power, NVH, driving texture, and control. When the 100-kilometer acceleration no longer becomes the contour line between expensive and cheap, what should be anxious is actually foreign luxury brands - what should they do to highlight their high-end and uniqueness?
■Advantage 2: The capabilities of new forces cannot be ignored
Led by a group of new domestic car-making forces, we have begun to build the vehicle electronics architecture from the bottom up and design it from scratch. The functional modules of electric vehicles are all the same for brands such as Weilai and Xiaopeng. Not long ago, Volkswagen was still suffering from bug modifications and software upgrades for the I.D. model, and even forced out the executives in charge of the project. If a car company of the size of Volkswagen wants to truly create smart electric vehicles in the future, it is bound to say goodbye to the traditional supplier modular system. The traditional profit chain sacrificed in it will touch the cheese of many people.
In this process, new domestic forces and even some traditional car companies are very hopeful to gain first-mover advantages at the technical level. In the next five years, if foreign brands are unable to achieve their smart goals in China, users will inevitably make a rational choice between a "strong brand" and a "smarter car experience" and ultimately vote with their feet.
■Advantage 3: Diversified development of domestic new energy routes
It is true that in the last five years, there have been many speculators who used subsidies to "cheat", but as Policies have been refined step by step, and industries have evolved from the Great Leap Forward to the Great Wave. Under the cultivation of policies and markets, my country has developed diversified technological routes and consumption models.
In terms of the power battery technology route, in addition to the rise and fall of 523, 622, and 811 under the nickel-cobalt-manganese system, lithium iron phosphate is ushering in its second spring after technical research. We are in the midst of the calm swing of 811 and iron batteries. A critical stage for product explosion. At the same time, the "battery swap" technology led by NIO and BAIC, followed closely by SAIC, GAC, Geely, etc., has solved the attenuation anxiety of pure electric vehicles. Based on "battery swap" technology, we have even launched an innovative electric vehicle consumption model called BaaS.
There are many eggs and many baskets. If my country's new energy route of inclusiveness and diversified development can form certain industry barriers within five years, it will actually put considerable pressure on foreign brands.
■? Little Detective Summary
There is now a saying: "We have worked hard for several years to achieve various new energy policies and infrastructure, and finally have the scale and system. Foreign brands Come in and put in products and enjoy the benefits. "I don't agree with this view. How can the domestic new energy industry develop the above three advantages without large-scale infrastructure and policy guidance?
Even if China’s new energy vehicle sales are really not as good as Europe’s this year, it does not mean that China has lost. In the next five years, the competition between Chinese and foreign brands will not only be limited to brands and products, but also include competition in technological routes derived from new energy vehicles, brand ecological competition, and consumption model competition. The latter three are exactly what Chinese brands will achieve in the next five years. An important trump card for overtaking on corners. Of course, it is too early to draw any conclusions now. This article also focuses on the European camp where luxury brands are most concentrated, with German brands being the main ones. After all, when Chinese brands go up, they are the direct competitors they encounter. In contrast, the American brand Tesla is a "full-map AOE attack", and other American and even Japanese and Korean luxury brands have no clear and large-scale domestic product launch plans.
After the epidemic, the world economic situation is undercurrent. As a very important industrial node in the industrial field, automobile companies, coupled with the irreversible wave of electrification, may determine the rise and fall of a country's automobile industry in the next five years. "Decisive Period". The current situation is unpredictable, and opportunities and challenges coexist. We should welcome the competition from "foreign brands" with an open and inclusive attitude, and we should continue to improve and improve with an attitude of neither arrogance nor impatience. As for what China’s new energy market will look like in the future, let’s wait and see!
This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.