From August, 2065438 to February, 2022, the live pig market experienced a cycle from falling to rising for nearly four years. From the end of March 2022, the pig price bottomed out and began a new round of pig rising cycle. The price of pigs rose from 5.87 yuan to 9.56 yuan/kg today, just three months 10 day.

Judging from the rising trend of live pig prices, live pig prices have experienced an accelerated rising process of "slowing down first and then speeding up", especially in recent days. On June 28th, the national foreign exchange rate rose by 0.38 yuan per catty, with 0.7 yuan per catty in Beijing and Tianjin, and 0.6 yuan per catty in Jiangsu, Shandong and Zhejiang, all of which set a new record for one-day increase after the year.

The following are the specific quotations for the increase in various places:

The price of pigs has gone up, and it continues to go up sharply, and so has the price of pork. Some netizens left a message in the background, worrying that if the price of pigs keeps going up like this, will a kilo of pork be sold to 27 and 8 yuan like 20 19, 2020, 202 1, or even surpass the "sky-high pork" situation in some places in 30 yuan?

Before discussing this issue, let's take a look at the current national pork price:

The latest pork quotations on June 28th show that they are: 0.5 yuan/kg,/kg,/kg, 0 yuan/kg, Fogang/kg, Guangdong/kg and Jianshi/kg. Yuanzhou district of Jiangxi province 12. 1 yuan/kg, Xihua county of Henan province 12.5 yuan/kg, Linzhang county of Hebei province 12.0 yuan/kg.

Please refer to the attached table for pork quotation in other regions:

According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural products wholesale market was 1 1.20 yuan/kg on June 27th, up 3.0% from last Friday.

According to another media report, the average retail price of pork nationwide was 26.57 yuan/kg, up 1.6% from the previous week and up 8.0% from the same period last year.

At present, the price of pigs is rising, and so is pork. It is understandable that everyone is worried that "high-priced pork" will make a comeback.

Regarding the price of pork in the market, I personally think that the price of pork can rise, but the increase is limited. In the past two years, there is almost no probability that a kilo of pork, 7 yuan or even 30 yuan will not move.

There are three reasons:

First, at present, the number of live pigs is at a normal level, and there is no basis for a substantial increase in the short term.

According to the data at the end of May, the number of live pigs in China was 4150,000, down 0.2% from the end of April and 7.5% from the same period last year.

At present, the pig price has entered the profit stage, and the pig production capacity will gradually pick up, which still has an impact on the pig price.

Second, the regulatory factors of relevant departments. The relevant state departments have collected and stored a large amount of pork in the first half of the year. In addition, if pig prices and meat prices continue to rise sharply, pork and pig offal imported in the first half of the year will be put on the market in time to stabilize pork prices.

Third, there are no special event factors. As we all know, since 20 19, the price of pigs has skyrocketed and the price of pork has skyrocketed. The main event factor is that since the first case of African swine fever appeared in Shenyang in August, 20 18, the pig production has dropped sharply, and there have been sky-high pigs and sky-high pork. If there were no similar situation, the price of pork would not have risen so much.

On the whole, judging from the pig cycle, the price of live pigs or pork will fluctuate upward in the second half of the year, but considering the above three factors comprehensively, this increase should be moderate. Personally, it is still possible for the pig price to reach 1 1 and 12 yuan per catty by the end of the year, and the pork price will be stable below 20 yuan per catty and above 20 yuan.

Dear friends, how much is your pork now? Will pork break through 20 yuan/Jin in the second half of the year? Welcome to express your views for your reference.

(Text/Sannong Guangxun)