Mechanical information
Research on Competitiveness Information and Trade Risk of Equipment Manufacturing Industry
On February 18, the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) of the United States released the report "Moore's Law is Broken: the Impact of China Policy on Global Semiconductor Innovation" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"). The report outlines the development of the global semiconductor industry; The motivation and conditions of continuous innovation in semiconductor industry are analyzed. China's semiconductor industry policy and its influence are discussed.
Subsequently, US President Biden signed an executive order on the US supply chain, instructing an extensive assessment of the supply chain of semiconductors, medical supplies, key minerals and high-capacity batteries.
Thus, the importance of semiconductor industry to American manufacturing, economy and national security is self-evident.
The current competitive pattern of global semiconductor industry
1. American companies account for nearly 50% of global sales, but their production capacity is weak.
In 20 19, semiconductor companies headquartered in the United States accounted for 47% of the global semiconductor industry sales (down about 5% compared with 5 1.8% in 20 12), followed by South Korea (19%), Japan and Europe (each/kloc-
However, as of 20 19, the United States only accounted for 1 1% of the global semiconductor manufacturing market, with South Korea accounting for 28%, Taiwan Province Province of China accounting for 22%, Japan accounting for 16%, Chinese mainland accounting for 12% and Europe accounting for 3%. In 20 15 20 19, Chinese mainland's share in the global semiconductor manufacturing market almost doubled. By the end of 2020, there are only 20 semiconductor manufacturing plants (Fabs) in operation in the United States.
2. America, Europe and South Korea are in the leading position in different fields of semiconductor industry.
Logic chip, memory chip, analog chip and discrete chip are the four major fields of semiconductor industry. Judging from the market share of major market segments in the global semiconductor industry, in 20 19, the United States was clearly ahead in logic chips and analog chips; South Korea leads in memory (followed by the United States); Europe leads in the field of discrete devices. China enterprises have a market share of 9% in the field of logic chips and 5% in the field of discrete devices.
As far as specific enterprises are concerned, Intel is the global leader in logic chips; By the first quarter of 2020, Texas Instruments, ADI and Infineon will be the leaders of analog chips, with market shares of 65,438+09%, 65,438+00% and 7% respectively. Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron are in the leading position in the field of dynamic random access memory (DRAM), accounting for 44%, 29% and 265,438+0% of the global market share respectively.
3. The global semiconductor industry chain is highly involved, and the value advantages of different countries are different.
The semiconductor industry is highly globalized, and a large number of countries/regions compete in many aspects of semiconductor production, from semiconductor design to manufacturing to ATP (assembly, testing and packaging). In every link of the semiconductor value chain, enterprises from 25 countries participate in the direct supply chain, and enterprises from 23 countries participate in the support function. More than 12 countries have enterprises directly engaged in semiconductor chip design, 39 countries have at least 1 semiconductor manufacturing plants, and more than 25 countries have ATP enterprises.
Every link in the semiconductor production process has created considerable value. According to the estimation of the United States International Trade Commission (ITC), 90% of the value of semiconductor chips exists in the design and manufacturing stage, and 65,438+00% of the value comes from ATP.
A key driving force of the global semiconductor industry is specialization, because enterprises-even the whole industrial ecological cluster within the country-choose to focus on mastering the key links in the semiconductor production process. For example, the advantages of the Netherlands in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography; Japan's advantages in chemicals and production equipment; South Korea's advantages in memory chips; China Taiwan Province Province's advantages in casting; Advantages of Malaysia and Vietnam in ATP.
The United States leads the world in semiconductor patent application.
According to the data of semiconductor patents granted by the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO), although the share of the United States in global semiconductor patents has dropped from 43% in 1998 to 29% in 20 18, it is still ahead. Japan's share decreased by about 1/3, from 33% to 23%; Followed by China, Taiwan Province Province and South Korea; The EU ranks fifth; Chinese mainland ranks sixth, accounting for about 6% of global patents. If the number of patents per US$ 6,543.8 +0 billion GDP is calculated, China's lag is even more serious. Among the GDP of $654.38+0 billion, American semiconductor enterprises obtained 365.438+00 patents, while China semiconductor enterprises only obtained 77 patents.
5. China's share in the added value of global semiconductor industry is rising.
As far as the share of the added value of the global semiconductor industry is concerned, in 200 1 20 16, the growth rate of Chinese mainland almost quadrupled, from 8% to 31%; The share of the United States dropped from 28% to 22%; Japan's share has dropped by more than two thirds, from 30% to 8%; The share of Taiwan Province Province in China increased from 8% to15%; South Korea's share increased from 5% to10%; Germany and Malaysia each have a 2% share.
6. With the exception of Japan and the United States, the export of semiconductor industry in major countries (regions) in the world has increased.
From 2005 to 20 19, the export of semiconductor industry in Chinese mainland increased from $27.8 billion to $ 138 billion; Taiwan Province Province of China increased from $35.9 billion to 1 1 1 billion; South Korea increased from $30.9 billion to $92.4 billion; EU- 27+ UK increased from $69.4 billion to $81600 million. At the same time, US exports remained basically unchanged, reaching $536,543.8 billion in 2005 and $52.9 billion in 20 19. Japan's exports declined slightly, from $47.9 billion to $46.9 billion.
7. Semiconductor is one of the most R&D-intensive industries in the world.
Semiconductors and biopharmaceuticals are the most research-intensive industries in the world. 20 19 eu industrial R&D investment scoreboard (20 19 eu industrial r&: D investment scoreboard), the top 13 semiconductor companies spent 18.4% of their sales on R&D, exceeding the biopharmaceutical industry. Among them, the top three are Qualcomm in the United States, MediaTek in Taiwan Province, China and AMD in the United States. In terms of actual investment, Samsung leads with 65.438+0.48 billion euros (about 65.438+0.76 billion US dollars), followed by Huawei with 65.438+0.27 billion euros (about 65.438+0.5 billion US dollars), and Intel with 65.438+06.5438+0.8 billion US dollars.
As of 20 18, the proportion of semiconductor R&D investment in sales of American headquarters enterprises was 17.4%, that of Europe was 13.9%, that of China and Taiwan Province Province was 9.9%, that of Japan was 8.8%, that of Chinese mainland was 8.4%, and that of South Korea was 7.3%. The R&D intensity of the European semiconductor industry has dropped from 16.5% in 20 10 to 13.9% today. On the contrary, the R&D intensity of semiconductor enterprises in China increased from 6.3% in 20 12 to 8.4% in 20 18.
8. The semiconductor industry has high capital investment.
Semiconductors are also capital-intensive industries. In 20 19, the total global capital expenditure (CapEx) of the semiconductor industry in the United States was $31900 million, accounting for 12.5% of the sales, second only to the alternative energy sector in the United States. In terms of global capital expenditure, Korean-headquartered enterprises accounted for 3 1% of the global capital expenditure of the semiconductor industry in 20 19, followed by the United States (28%), Taiwan Province Province of China (17%), Chinese mainland (10%) and Japan (5%).
The expertise, capital and scale required for developing new semiconductor designs or establishing new semiconductor wafer factories are very high, and they are increasing. For example, the cost of pushing the chip design from 10 nm to 7 nm has increased by more than 1 100 million dollars, while the cost of pushing the chip design from 7 nm to 5 nm may double again, from 300 million dollars to nearly 550 million dollars. But this is only the cost of designing the chip. It is estimated that by 2020, the average cost of building a new 14 16nm wafer factory will be1300 million USD; 10nm fab construction cost is1500 million USD; The construction cost of 7nm wafer fab is $654.38+$800 million; The construction cost of the 5-nanometer fab is $20 billion.
China plays an important role in the global semiconductor industry.
1. China's semiconductor strength continues to increase.
From the design and manufacture of chips, China's semiconductor strength is growing rapidly. For example, in 20 10 and 20 15, the number of integrated circuit design enterprises in China increased from 485 to 7 15. In 2005-20 15, the compound annual growth rate of semiconductor industry in China was 18.7%, the growth rate of semiconductor consumption was 14.3%, and the compound annual growth rate of global semiconductor market was only 4.0%.
At present, about 20% of the world's fabless integrated circuit design companies are located in China. As a report by Deloitte said, "In terms of integrated circuit design, Chinese mainland's ability has surged in the past five years, and it has begun to catch up with Chinese mainland, Taiwan Province Province and South Korea and become a major participant in integrated circuit design in the Asia-Pacific region."
2. China market is very important to American semiconductor enterprises.
China market is very important, accounting for a considerable proportion of the income of many American semiconductor enterprises. For example, in the first four months of 20 18, China market accounted for more than 60% of Qualcomm's revenue, more than 50% of micron, about 45% of Broadcom and more than 40% of Texas Instruments. In 20 18, about 36% of the income of American semiconductor enterprises, that is, $75 billion, came from sales to China.
3. The revenue of semiconductor industry in China is growing rapidly, but the net profit rate is low.
By the end of 20 19, the revenue generated by the world's largest 136 semiconductor enterprises totaled $571800 million. Among them, China enterprises accounted for US$ 46,543.8+0.3 billion, accounting for more than 7.2% of global income. China enterprises account for 265,438+0% (US$ 6 billion) of global packaging and testing service (OSAT) revenue; 8% ($4.5 billion) of OEM revenue; It accounts for 7% ($29.6 billion) of chip design and manufacturing revenue. In 20 15, China enterprises accounted for 4% of the global semiconductor industry revenue. Thus, from 20 15 to 20 19, the income proportion of Chinese enterprises almost doubled.
Although the revenue of semiconductor industry in China is developing rapidly, its net profit rate is only a small part of that of Intel, Samsung, TSMC, SK Hynix and Micron. On average, in 20 19 years, the net interest rate of non-China semiconductor enterprises was 19.4%, while that of China semiconductor enterprises was 12. 1%.
What measures should think tanks put forward for China in the future?
According to the report, China distorted the global market through mercantilist policies, hindered the development of innovative enterprises and R&D investment, and undermined Moore's Law in the semiconductor industry. The report puts forward some suggestions to deal with the "China Challenge" (implementing the Chip Law and increasing the federal investment in R&D semiconductors) from the international level and the domestic level of the United States. Among them, the recommendations at the international level include:
1. Expand the content of WTO on subsidies
According to the regulations of WTO, financial assistance as a subsidy needs to have three elements: 1) financial contribution; 2) given by the government or public institutions; 3) Income from this donation.
Therefore, the United States should cooperate with like-minded countries and the WTO to update the rules and impose stricter conditions and penalties on radical industrial subsidies. First, clarify the definition of "public institution" and expand it to include state-owned enterprises, private enterprises and other entities affected by the state. At the same time, the subsidies needed by state-owned enterprises will not harm other countries.
Like-minded countries should focus on greatly improving the transparency of global subsidies, including insisting on timely and complete notification of subsidies and establishing damage presumption for subsidies that are not notified in time. Countries should also hold annual meetings between WTO members and WTO Appellate Body to discuss the patterns and challenges related to excessive use of subsidies.
2. Allies should cooperate in semiconductor export control.
For the global semiconductor industry, China is not only an important market, but also an important production place. Undoubtedly, the export control of the core technology supporting China's economic and military rise will become a tool for policy makers to seriously consider. However, as ITIF once pointed out, the United States should try its best to cooperate with like-minded countries and coordinate export control measures, "because the export control system is the most successful in the case of international coordination." As stated in Article 48 1 1(5) of the Export Control Reform Law, "export control should be coordinated with multilateral export control systems. Multilateral export control is the most effective and should focus on core technologies and other items that can be used to pose a serious national security threat to the United States and its allies. "
According to the report, in order to achieve economic or trade policy goals, the United States continues to implement unilateral export controls. It needs to form a new control mode with the traditional Wassenaar Protocol (WAC), which represents a specific semiconductor industry (including semiconductor manufacturing equipment) and a wider range of advanced technologies. Therefore, the United States should avoid unilateral export control and seek to work out a more ambitious and effective multilateral approach with Germany, Japan, South Korea, China, Taiwan Province Province, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom to implement export control.
These countries should work together to reach a consensus on the threat posed by enterprises from non-market economy countries to the global semiconductor industry and the development speed and progress of semiconductor technology. Then, these countries should set up a working group outside the tile association, that is, the "small tile association", define semiconductor technology and related controlled items (outside the scope of existing controlled items), and formulate the same licensing policy.
3. Unify foreign direct investment review procedures.
20 18 foreign investment risk review modernization act (FIRRMA) instructs the Committee on overseas investment (CFIUS) of the United States to establish a formal procedure to share information with allied governments and to coordinate and cooperate on investment security issues. Therefore, the United States should continue to cooperate with like-minded countries, coordinate investment review procedures, and consider expanding the list of foreign exceptions to include France, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy, Japan and South Korea.
4. Strengthen information enjoyment and crack down on foreign economic spies and steal intellectual property, technology or business secrets.
The United States should lead more like-minded countries to establish a broader "five-eye alliance" and work together to combat espionage in the field of state-funded advanced technology. The organization can compile a list of enterprises and individuals who attempt to steal intellectual property rights, and at the same time formulate mechanisms to restrict these enterprises and individuals from competing in the alliance market.
5. Realize alliance and cooperation in semiconductor research and development.
The extensiveness and complexity of semiconductor innovation means that there is an opportunity to recruit like-minded countries to participate in long-term and high-potential R&D projects, such as the "semiconductor moon landing program". In fact, this is what American chips expect for the American Act, which calls for the establishment of a $750 million multilateral security fund to support the development and adoption of secure microelectronics technology. In this regard, ensuring the security of the microelectronics supply chain will be the first step, and Congress will allocate funds for this provision when it considers the reauthorization of the National Defense Authorization Act this fall.
summary
According to the 2020 Global Think Tank Index Report released by the University of Pennsylvania, ITIF ranks 39th among the top think tanks in the United States and 4th among the top science and technology policy think tanks in the world. Its chairman, rob atkinson, has rich working experience in government departments, and his views have certain influence in political circles. Previously, many suggestions and advocacy of ITIF were adopted by the US government.
ITIF has always been critical of China's scientific and technological innovation policy, and advocated taking tough countermeasures against China. The report's recommendations in the field of semiconductors coincide with Biden's ideas of uniting allies, developing domestic manufacturing and containing China, so it is likely to be adopted by the US government.