Hello, I am the first batch of rural e-commerce learners in China. Let me talk about my thoughts on your question.
1. Risk of mode
From the development history of agricultural e-commerce platform in recent years, whether it has a clear and unique business model is the key to the operation and development of e-commerce platform. Because the agricultural e-commerce platform will eventually become centralized, different models will form several head platforms, and these platforms will have the largest market share.
Second, the risks of platform development and operation and maintenance
Most e-commerce companies that have just started do not have a complete technology development team, and generally choose outsourcing technology companies to cooperate. There are two risks here, one is the development and performance of the first version; The other is whether the subsequent iterative optimization can be completed in time.
communication cost must be considered, because of the difference of professional background, it often takes a long time and many rounds of communication.
iii. operational risks
most of the workers engaged in agricultural e-commerce in China are now transforming from consumer e-commerce to agricultural e-commerce. At present, the most prominent problem is that those who know agriculture do not know e-commerce, and those who know e-commerce do not know agriculture. Few people know both. It is very dangerous to simply copy the experience of consumer e-commerce to agricultural e-commerce. Agriculture has its own laws and characteristics, so the composition of the operation team is very important.
Of course, there are other potential risks such as platform security risks, so I won't go into details. These three points are the biggest risks.
agricultural e-commerce organically combines the front, middle and back stages of agricultural production through network technology, which is helpful to solve the information asymmetry in the process of agricultural production and sales, improve the response ability of agricultural production to the market, optimize the allocation of agricultural resources, and enhance China's agricultural brand image and overall competitive strength. China's agricultural e-commerce started late, and there are many problems and risks in the development process. This paper reviews the development of agricultural e-commerce in China, analyzes the risks faced in the development of agricultural e-commerce in China, and explores its reasons. Finally, the corresponding measures are given to provide useful reference for the development of agricultural e-commerce in China.
"internet plus" is a new form of economic development that evolved from the Internet, representing a new advanced production relationship and providing a broad network platform for reform, innovation and development. In recent years, "internet plus" has changed and influenced many traditional industries, and Internet+agriculture has also become a major trend in China's agricultural development. China is a big agricultural country and a typical representative of traditional agriculture. Now it is in the process of transforming from "traditional agriculture" to "modern agriculture", facing the problems of low agricultural productivity, lagging agricultural products processing industry, many agricultural products sales links and high transaction costs. The concept of "internet plus" has injected new impetus into China's rural market and provided an opportunity for the development of China's agricultural e-commerce.
1 advantages of agricultural e-commerce
agricultural e-commerce is an economic operation mode of agricultural business activities by using computer technology, network technology and communication technology, including the whole process of agricultural information production, online sales and logistics distribution of agricultural products, and electronic payment of funds [1]. Agricultural e-commerce organically combines the front, middle and back links of agricultural production through network technology, which is helpful to solve the information asymmetry problem in the process of agricultural production and sales, improve the response ability of agricultural production to the market, optimize the allocation of agricultural resources, and enhance China's agricultural brand image and overall competitive strength. Specifically, agricultural e-commerce has many advantages.
first, vigorously developing agricultural e-commerce will help accelerate the transformation of China's agricultural production mode. The small-scale peasant economy for thousands of years has caused the backward agricultural production mode, the backward agricultural infrastructure construction and the generally low level of agricultural mechanization and modernization. Therefore, changing China's agricultural production mode is the key to improve the overall economic quality of China's agriculture and rural areas. Vigorously developing agricultural e-commerce will help promote the realization of agricultural industrialization, informationization and modernization in China and accelerate the transformation of agricultural production mode in China.
second, vigorously developing agricultural e-commerce is conducive to the dissemination and enjoyment of agricultural information. The rapid circulation of information can effectively eliminate the uncertain factors in production activities. China's agricultural production is mainly small-scale production with family as the unit, and there is a lack of information communication between farmers and between farmers and the market. Farmers arrange production entirely by personal experience, which often leads to information asymmetry in agricultural market and imbalance between supply and demand of agricultural products. Developing agricultural e-commerce, building an agricultural e-commerce information platform, strengthening the construction of agricultural information infrastructure and speeding up the circulation of agricultural information can effectively solve these problems and close the relationship between farmers and the market.
thirdly, vigorously developing agricultural e-commerce is conducive to broadening the sales channels of agricultural products and reducing circulation costs. On the one hand, because the production of agricultural products is restricted and restricted by natural conditions, the output is extremely unstable; On the other hand, the contradiction between supply and demand of agricultural products is aggravated because they are not easy to preserve and are easy to rot and deteriorate. At present, there are many problems in the sales of agricultural products in China, such as narrow channels, many links, high transaction costs and high loss of agricultural products. Therefore, it is particularly urgent to vigorously develop agricultural e-commerce, build an online trading platform, broaden the sales channels of agricultural products and reduce transaction links and transaction costs.
fourth, vigorously developing agricultural e-commerce is conducive to promoting the process of agricultural industrialization in China. Agricultural industrialization is market-oriented, centered on economic benefits, based on farmers, linked by leading enterprises or farmers' independent decision-making cooperatives and other intermediate organizations, focusing on leading industries and products, optimizing the combination of various production factors, implementing regional layout, specialized production, large-scale construction, serial processing, socialized service and enterprise management, and connecting the three links of agricultural production process into an organic industrial system through market mechanism. Agricultural industrialization is an effective way to accelerate agricultural modernization by promoting the transformation from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture as a whole. Vigorously developing agricultural e-commerce will contribute to the adjustment of China's agricultural production structure, promote the upgrading of China's agricultural industry, promote the development of agricultural specialization, and ultimately promote the development of China's agricultural industrialization.
under the background of internet plus, the promotion and development of agricultural e-commerce is undoubtedly of great significance for changing the backward and low-end situation of traditional agriculture in China, but there are also many risks. The purpose of this study is to analyze the risk factors of the development of agricultural e-commerce, simulate the risk of the development of agricultural e-commerce in China through the system dynamics model, and put forward some countermeasures and suggestions to deal with the risk.
2 development history of agricultural e-commerce in China
The earliest development of agricultural e-commerce in China can be traced back to 1994, when China Agricultural Science and Technology Information Network was opened. Since then, various agricultural information network platforms have emerged one after another, and China's agricultural e-commerce industry has begun to develop. Since the late last century, China's agricultural e-commerce has roughly experienced the following four stages of development.
2.1 the embryonic stage of agricultural e-commerce development
1995-25 was the embryonic stage of agricultural e-commerce development in China. During this period, the state officially launched the "Golden Agriculture Project", aiming at accelerating and promoting the informationization of agriculture and rural areas and establishing an agricultural comprehensive management and service information system. At the same time, Jicheng Spot Network (the predecessor of China Grain Network) was established in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, marking the beginning of rural e-commerce in China. At this stage, the development mode of agricultural e-commerce in China only stays in the GtoC mode, that is, the government entrusts the e-commerce platform to purchase and sell national policy agricultural products through bidding transactions.
2.2 the growth period of agricultural e-commerce development
from p>26 to 28, the development of agricultural e-commerce in China entered a short growth period. During this period, fresh e-commerce enterprises appeared in China, which were mainly traditional retailers. At the same time, in some rural areas along the southeast coast of China, some farmers began to open online stores on Taobao, becoming full-time online merchants, realizing income generation, and forming a demonstration effect, driving the surrounding people to start businesses online, and all kinds of e-commerce have sprung up.
2.3 adjustment period of agricultural e-commerce development
29-212 is the adjustment period of agricultural e-commerce development in China. First, due to the limited capacity of agricultural e-commerce market in the early stage of agricultural e-commerce development, the influx of a large number of e-commerce enterprises led to the rapid saturation of the market. Second, because most of the early users of agricultural e-commerce in China were traditional retailers, they lacked professional e-commerce talents, specialized management teams and capital. Faced with the high cost and high-pressure competition in the agricultural e-commerce industry, these earliest enterprises involved in agricultural e-commerce almost lost. Third, the lack of model innovation and service innovation, just blindly imitate and copy. In addition, due to the frequent domestic food safety incidents during this period, consumers paid more attention to food safety and quality. The dual pressure from industry development and consumer demand changes eventually led to the closure of many e-commerce enterprises, and China's agricultural e-commerce entered an adjustment period of resource integration and survival of the fittest.
2.4 maturity of agricultural e-commerce development
since p>212, although resource integration is still in progress, China's agricultural e-commerce has entered a period of gradual maturity and stable development. During this period, although bankruptcy, transfer and elimination still exist, the remaining enterprises all have their own advantages in industry resources. For example, SF Express was officially launched, Tuotuo Industrial Society rose rapidly, and No.1 Store acquired by Wal-Mart launched its own fresh food category. Originally, Life.com caused heated discussion in society with its "Chu Orange" and "Millennium Litchi". Compared with the previous mutual bidding of agricultural e-commerce industry, the new round of competition is more reflected in the country of origin, marketing means, logistics distribution speed and service.
2.5 Prosperity period of agricultural e-commerce development
In p>215, with the concept of "internet plus" and the integration of "internet plus" and agriculture, China's agricultural e-commerce entered a prosperous period of rapid development. In order to further stimulate the market potential of rural e-commerce, the state has successively issued a series of policies to promote the development of agricultural e-commerce, as shown in Table 1. The introduction of these policies has provided strong policy support for improving the rural modern market system, promoting the modernization of rural circulation, improving the efficiency of rural circulation and releasing the rural consumption potential.
such a good policy environment has also created a milestone in the development of agricultural e-commerce in China. Since 215, county e-commerce in China has been fully rolled out, and agricultural e-commerce has begun to adopt a comprehensive "whole county promotion" approach, which has greatly accelerated the coverage of agricultural e-commerce. The first thing to bear the brunt is the full implementation of Alibaba's "Thousands of Counties and Thousands of Villages" plan. JD.COM followed closely, vigorously implemented its rural e-commerce strategy, greatly promoted the basic network construction of rural e-commerce, and laid out a rural e-commerce service network covering the whole country. Suning launched the "Double Hundred Plan" for e-commerce poverty alleviation, and will build 1 stores in 1 poverty-stricken counties suitable for developing rural e-commerce, including direct stores and service stations in Suning.cn, and correspondingly launch 1 local specialty pavilions in Suning.cn to help poverty-stricken areas accurately help the poor. China Post is also accelerating the layout of rural e-commerce and building new village-level service points in Shaanxi, Shandong and Henan. In addition, China Telecom also began to covet rural e-commerce, launched a pilot project to build village-level e-commerce service points in Qinghai, and cut into the rural e-commerce market from fee-based services. Alibaba's "Thousands of Counties and Thousands of Villages" plan, JD.COM Mall's "Jingdong Gang" service shop, Suning Yunshang's Suning.cn service station model, China Post, and China Telecom's spread to the rural market all indicate that China's agricultural e-commerce is gradually moving towards open social management [2]. Agricultural e-commerce has brought more convenience and more employment opportunities to farmers, which not only promotes the development of the overall rural economy, but also changes the backward face of traditional agriculture in China and promotes the transformation of traditional agriculture into modern agriculture.
Table 1: Policy documents related to the development of agricultural e-commerce
3 Analysis of the risks and causes of the development of agricultural e-commerce in China
Under the background of the prevalence of Internet economy and the rapid development of science and technology, agricultural e-commerce as an important means of strategic adjustment and value creation of agricultural enterprises in China, as well as the inevitable trend of agricultural industrialization and modernization in China, has become an important way for China's agricultural industry to gain competitive advantage. However, agricultural e-commerce not only brings competitive advantages to enterprises, but also brings certain risks to the production, sales and agricultural market of agricultural products in China. The risk of agricultural e-commerce refers to the possibility that the subject of agricultural e-commerce will suffer losses due to the uncertainty and complexity in the development of agricultural e-commerce. The main body of agricultural e-commerce includes all agricultural enterprises, farmers and end customers who participate in agricultural e-commerce. Agricultural e-commerce risks mainly include the following categories.
3.1 market risk
the market risk of agricultural e-commerce refers to the risk that the subject of agricultural e-commerce will suffer economic losses due to the imbalance of supply and demand in the agricultural product market, the fluctuation of agricultural product prices, or the information asymmetry, market prospect forecast deviation and other factors. The market risk of agricultural e-commerce is mainly manifested in the deviation of agricultural product market forecast, the change of supply and demand information, which leads to the fluctuation of agricultural product market price and the unsalable agricultural products. There are two main reasons for the market risk of agricultural e-commerce:
First, the weakness of agricultural industry itself is the fundamental reason for the market risk of agricultural e-commerce. The weakness of agricultural industry is reflected in: agricultural production is seasonal, the production cycle is long, and the market regulation is lagging behind, which leads to great changes in the prices of agricultural products; Most agricultural products belong to fresh agricultural products, which are perishable, difficult to preserve for a long time, and require high processing technology and conditions. Once unsalable, agricultural producers will face huge losses; Despite the continuous progress of agricultural science and technology, agricultural production is still highly dependent on natural conditions, and the losses caused by natural disasters are beyond human control.
second, the high asymmetry of agricultural market information is the direct cause of agricultural e-commerce market risk. The high asymmetry of agricultural market information mainly comes from two reasons. On the one hand, the overall cultural quality of Chinese farmers is generally low, so it is difficult to find and accurately interpret the market demand in the market, and their judgment on the market is weak. Farmers only decide production by experience and lack effective information, so it is difficult to adjust the production structure in time according to the changes in market demand, which makes the production of Chinese farmers extremely blind. On the other hand, although there are about 1, agricultural information websites in China, there are many problems such as similar information, low accuracy and poor timeliness, especially the lack of predictive and guiding information for agricultural products market. Therefore, the high uncertainty of agricultural market information in China has brought great risks to the development of agricultural e-commerce in China.
3.2 quality and safety risks of agricultural products
quality and safety risks of agricultural products refer to the adverse effects on people, animals and plants and the environment due to the quality of agricultural products not meeting the relevant requirements, as well as the possibility of economic losses. The quality and safety of agricultural products are related to the national health and life safety, the international reputation and competitiveness of food and agricultural products in China, and the economic development and social security of agricultural industry in China. The quality and safety risks of agricultural products mainly come from the following aspects: