The appreciation of the euro has improved the competitiveness of Latvian manufacturing industry in the EU market. Latvia has not only expanded its exports to euro-zone countries, but also to other EU countries and CIS countries, which shows that Latvia's major manufacturing industries are still competitive in foreign markets. Latvia hopes that these manufacturing sectors will maintain rapid growth in the next few years, and hopes that the realization of modernization, the reconstruction of infrastructure and the investment of EU funds will play an important role in Latvia's economic development.
From 2004 to the first quarter of 2005, Latvia * made a comprehensive breakthrough in economic development and internal and external relations. The overall development trend is good.
1. The government changes frequently, but the political situation is basically stable.
On February 5, 2004, the coalition government headed by Raphscher, the chairman of LaXinshidai Party, announced its resignation. More than a month later, on March 9th, Latvia successfully established a coalition government with indulis emsis, a member of the "Green Party-Farmers Alliance", as the prime minister. After seven months in power, the government announced its resignation on June 28th, 10, because the Draft National Budget for 2005 submitted by the Cabinet was rejected by the Parliament. After more than a month's gestation,1February 2, the Latin American parliament adopted by an absolute majority the 12 coalition government with Ai garce-Calvitis as the prime minister since 19 1 resumed its sovereignty and independence. Smooth transition to the crisis of government governance and the risk period of government reform. Up to now, the government is in good governance, the operating mechanism is more mature and the political situation is basically stable.
Second, the smooth transition of "joining the contract" has brought economic benefits.
Latvia joined NATO in April 1 2004 and EU in May 1 2004, successfully realizing the overall strategy of "joining the EU and leaving Europe". On the one hand, Latvia is very happy to be under the security umbrella of NATO. On the other hand, it has gradually become fully Europeanized in economy, trade and tax system. Latvia is trying to get familiar with the internal operation rules of the EU and cultivate "EU consciousness". At present, the country focuses on getting more economic benefits from the EU. In the four years before joining the European Union, Latvia only received about $654.38+75 million in financial assistance from the European Union. During the three years from 2004 to 2006, EU aid will reach 654.38+23.4 million euros, which will play an important role in promoting economic system reform, industrial restructuring and infrastructure transformation in Latin America. At present, projects such as EU grant for free aid, Phare project in Central and Eastern Europe, SAPARD project for agricultural and rural development, ISPA project for transportation infrastructure and environmental protection have been further implemented, making Latin American economic growth present the strongest momentum in recent years. According to the report released by Council of Europe in early April 2005, Latvia's economy will continue to grow rapidly. It is estimated that the economic growth rate in 2005 will be about 7.5%, ranking first among EU member states. Become a new bright spot of EU economic growth.
Third, economic development is relatively stable and macroeconomic indicators are basically optimistic.
In 2004, Latvia's macroeconomic indicators were basically optimistic. (1)GDP reached136.3 billion USD, up by 8.5% year-on-year; (2) The per capita GDP is $5,892, up 23.7% from $4,762 last year; (3) Trade growth10.5%; (4) the growth of transportation industry12.9%; (5) Industrial growth of 7.9%; (6) Construction industry growth13.0%; (7) Agricultural growth of 2.6%; (8) Foreign trade exports increased by 29%; (9) Imports increased by 26%; (10) The unemployment rate was 8.5%, down 0. 1 percentage point from the previous year. (1 1) The inflation rate rose from 2.9% in 2003 to 6.2%.
Fourth, accelerate the pace of EU economic integration.
Latvia has met the criteria for joining the economic and monetary union. Therefore, since June 65438+1 October12005, Latvia's currency "Lat" has been linked to "Euro" from "a basket of currencies" with a fixed exchange rate. This is the first step for Latvia to join the euro zone in 2008 and introduce the single European currency "Euro". Since 1994 Lat is pegged to a basket of currencies, the exchange rate has been 0.7997. Latvia is pegged to the euro with an exchange rate of 0.702804, which may benefit Latvia's exports to other EU member States, but at the same time it may cause losses to companies selling Latin American products in US dollars. According to experts' analysis, Latvians who travel abroad will enjoy the benefits of Latvia's exchange rate against the US dollar, while importers and domestic consumers will bear the risks of rising costs and prices of imported goods. Introducing the euro and joining the euro zone is the highest stage of EU economic integration. It is a great event for any EU member state. Latvia has taken a crucial step towards this goal.
Verb (abbreviation of verb) is more active in international relations and exchanges.
After joining the European Union, Latin America paid more attention to exchanges with other regions, countries and international organizations and developed bilateral and multilateral relations. They give full play to the strategic supporting role of the EU, improve their international status and ability to communicate with foreign countries, enhance their self-confidence, and make their foreign policy more active, balanced and pragmatic. In April 2005, President of Latvia was appointed as "Special Envoy for UN Reform" by UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan. President of Latvia is honored by this, which shows the recognition of Latvia's reform achievements by the United Nations and the promotion of Latvia's status in international organizations. With the strengthening of "EU consciousness" in Latin America, its foreign policy will be more consistent with the EU. Strive to strike a balance between Latin America and Russia. This year, President of Latvia sent an invitation to US President Bush to visit Latvia. The US President accepted the invitation and led a delegation of more than 700 people to visit Latvia on May 6-7. At the same time, on May 9th, Russia celebrated the 60th anniversary of the victory of the Great Patriotic War. President Putin sent invitations to more than 70 heads of state. Lithuania and Estonia, three countries in the Bohai Sea, made it clear that they would not participate in this activity, but President of Latvia went to attend. Therefore, on the whole, it will be Latvia's long-term policy orientation to rely on European development, American security, handle relations with neighboring countries, actively participate in international affairs and strengthen international exchanges.
Intransitive verbs realize the win-win situation of China's economic development.
On February 29th, 2004, the Latvian Parliament overwhelmingly passed the bill submitted by the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Latvian Parliament on abolishing the so-called "mutual investment protection agreement" signed between Latvia and the authorities of Taiwan Province Province. This is a major achievement of China's Taiwan-related diplomacy and foreign economic and trade work, and also an important event in the history of China-Latin America diplomacy and China-Latin America economic and trade.
In April 2004, President La paid his first visit to China, which was a complete success. The heads of state of China and Latin America are committed to promoting the development of bilateral relations and have laid a good foundation for promoting bilateral cooperation in various fields such as economy and trade. During President La's visit to China, the Chinese and Latin American governments signed a series of economic and trade cooperation agreements, such as economic cooperation agreement, mutual protection investment agreement, maritime cooperation agreement and railway transportation cooperation agreement. These agreements have further consolidated the legal foundation and created a good economic, trade and investment environment for enterprises of both sides.
In June 2004, the fourth meeting of China-Latvia Economic and Trade Cooperation Committee was held in Beijing. The two sides held extensive consultations on issues of concern. Through this meeting, China and Latin America have further enhanced their understanding and reached a consensus, which has promoted greater development of China-Latin America economic and trade cooperation relations under the framework of China-EU cooperation.
In March 2005, with the strong support of the Latvian Ministry of Economy, Latvian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Latvian International Exhibition Center and influential enterprises in Latvian business circles, the Commercial Office of the Embassy of China in Latvia successfully held a promotion meeting of China's export commodities fair attended by nearly 70 people, which attracted extensive attention from mainstream media in Latvia. Under the introduction of the Commercial Office, the Canton Fair delegation had extensive contacts with Latvian officials and business people, held formal talks, visited enterprises and visited customers. , so that the economic departments of the Latvian government and more Latvian buyers have strengthened their understanding of the China Export Commodities Fair and achieved the purpose of extensive publicity and expanding their influence. At the same time, the delegation also established contacts with some important industrial and commercial organizations in Latin America, laying the foundation for further expanding substantive cooperation between the two sides.
VII. Major Problems in Latin American Economic Development
(A) inflation plagues economic development
In the first quarter of 2004, Latvia's inflation rate increased by 4.3% year-on-year, and in March it became the country with the highest inflation rate among the three countries. In May, the Prime Minister of Latvia announced the establishment of a "Special Committee" to study and solve the problem of the rapid rise in the prices of major commodities. However, in July 2004, Latvia's inflation rate rose to 6.7%, the highest level in seven years. From June to 10 in 5438, Latvia's inflation rate continued to rise to 7.2%, making it the country with the highest inflation rate among EU member States. (At that time, the inflation rates of Estonia and Lithuania, the other two countries in the three countries, were 4% and 3. 1% respectively). The sharp rise in the prices of food, clothing, electricity, medicine, cigarettes and fuel has affected people's normal life, reduced the return on investment and reduced the real value of monetary investment. High consumption and purchasing power, exchange rate changes, raw material prices, electricity and natural gas tax rates, consumption tax, wages and low-interest loans, international oil prices and human psychological factors caused by China's entry into WTO are the main reasons for the sharp rise in Latvia's inflation rate. Latin American central banks have taken measures to control inflation, such as raising refinancing interest rates and raising bank reserves, and asked the government to cut budget deficits. However, the annual inflation rate in Latvia soared from 2.9% in 2003 to 6.2% in 2004.
On June 5438+ 10, 2005, the Prime Minister of Latvia indicated that he was not prepared to take more measures to artificially intervene in inflation. In February, Latvian Natural Gas Company submitted an application to Latvian Commercial Committee on the grounds that Latvia has the lowest natural gas tax rate among EU countries and expects to increase the natural gas tax rate by 20.3%. If the natural gas tax rate is increased by 20.3%, the inflation rate will be increased by at least 0.3%. In the first quarter of 2005, the inflation rate in Latin America has reached 6.7%. The soaring inflation rate has become one of the main problems that plague Latin American economic development.
(2) The high unemployment rate affects social stability.
In 2004, the unemployment rate in Latvia was 8.5%, which rose to 8.6% in the first quarter of 2005, and the number of unemployed people continued to rise. In particular, the unemployment rate in different regions of Latvia varies greatly, exceeding 20% in the eastern region and as high as 27.7% in Ruza region. After China's accession to the WTO, the requirements for the transformation of Latin American production technology and equipment have been improved, the skill standard of Latin American labor force has been improved, the impact of low-cost and high-quality imported goods on similar enterprises in Latin America has been further increased, and the average wage of workers has increased year by year, which has made the burden on domestic production enterprises increasingly heavier. Therefore, measures such as reducing staff and increasing efficiency, increasing income and reducing expenditure have to be taken to maintain the competitiveness of products and the economic benefits of enterprises, resulting in the continuous increase of unemployed workers and the decline of social stability index. In 2004, there were 62 173 criminal cases, an increase of 5.3% over 2003.
(C) the trade deficit restricts the economic development of Latin America
Over the years, the huge trade deficit has become a bottleneck restricting the economic development of Latin America. In 2002, Latin America's imports were 77% higher than its exports, reaching 865,438+0% in 2003, and the trade deficit in 2004 was about 65.438+63.8 billion lats, or about 3.025 billion US dollars. Imports still exceed exports by 77%. In 2004, a large number of trade deficits in Latin America mainly occurred in the first half of the year before joining the WTO. Many enterprises import a lot because of the changes after joining WTO, which leads to a rapid increase in trade deficit. It eased in the second half of the year. In particular, the current account deficit is offset by the influx of large amounts of investment and the inflow of capital and financial project funds. Nevertheless, when the import of goods from Latin America is much higher than the export, the benefits of enterprises providing export goods will inevitably be affected, their business activities will be suppressed, production will be blocked, the unemployment rate will rise, the growth potential of the consumer market will be insufficient, and the role of domestic demand in stimulating economic growth will gradually decrease. Therefore, how to reduce the huge trade deficit of countries with small population, small market and export-oriented economies and further revitalize the economy is one of the major problems that Latin America needs to solve.
Joining the European Union has indeed brought new opportunities to Latvia's economic development. The vast and stable market, the free flow of goods, services, capital and labor, and the support of EU funds have reduced the imbalance of social and economic development in Latin America and improved the infrastructure construction in Latin America. However, the government is clearly aware that having the status of a member of the European Union does not mean that the problems facing the country can be solved, and the government must redouble its efforts to achieve its goals within the framework of the European Union. At present, one of the most important goals of the Latin American government is to build a competitive country with rapid economic development. To achieve this goal, the government is committed to improving the macroeconomic environment, creating favorable business conditions, ensuring an equal and fair competition mechanism, and completing privatization. It is expected that the social and economic development in Latin America and the bilateral and economic and trade development between China and Latin America will not break the new situation.
Eight. Trade between China and Latin America
Bilateral trade between China and Latin America maintained a good momentum of development. According to the statistics of Latin America, during the seven years from 1998 to 2004, the trade ranking between China and Latin America rose from 3 1 to 22nd. Among them, the export growth is the most obvious, rising from 108 to 2 1, and the total export value from 1998 to1680,000.
According to the statistics of China Customs, the bilateral trade volume between China and Latin America reached US$ 654.38+99 billion in 2004, up by 53. 1% year-on-year. Among them, China's exports to Latvia were US$ 654.38+79 billion, a year-on-year increase of 665.438+0.8%; China imported $ 1.98 1.000 from Latvia, up 3.2% year-on-year.
According to the statistics released by Latvia's Ministry of Economic Affairs on March 14, 2005, the bilateral trade volume between China and Latvia is 99.2 million US dollars, accounting for 0.9% of Latvia's total trade, and it is Latvia's 22nd largest trading partner. Among them, Latin American exports to China were US$ 654.38+US$ 600,000, accounting for 0.4% of the total Latin American exports, down 36.6% year-on-year. Latin America imported US$ 88.6 million from China, accounting for 1.7% of the total Latin American imports, with a year-on-year increase of 3 1.3%.
From the analysis of bilateral trade between China and Latin America in 2004, its main features are:
1, my exports to Latin America continued to grow.
According to Latvia's statistics, China's exports to Latvia increased from US$ 67.5 million in 2003 to US$ 88.6 million in 2004, with an increase rate of 3 1.3%.
Our trade with Latin America continues to maintain a large surplus.
In 2004, I exported US$ 88.6 million to Latin America, while I imported US$10.6 million from Latin America, that is, my imports from Latin America were only 12% of my exports to Latin America, achieving a trade surplus of US$ 78 million.
3. The bilateral trade volume between China and Latin America accounts for a small proportion of the total trade volume in Latin America.
In 2004, Latvia's total foreign trade was US$ 65.438+0.085 billion, and the bilateral trade between China and Latin China was US$ 99.2 million, accounting for only 0.9% of the total trade between Latvia and.
My import from Latin America has dropped sharply.
In 2004, I imported US$ 6.5438+0.06 million from Latin America, down 36.6% year-on-year. The decline is more than one third.
My exports to Latin America are mainly machinery, textiles and clothing, shoes and hats.
Textiles, clothing, shoes and hats are traditional export commodities in China, but the added value is relatively low. In recent years, the structure of China's exports to Latin America has been gradually improved, and the export of mechanical and electrical products has been continuously improved. According to the statistics published in Latin America in 2004, my mechanical and electrical products exported to Latin America accounted for 27.7% of my total exports to Latin America. Textiles account for14.5%; Various manufactured goods account for10.6%; Shoes and hats account for 9.6%.
6. I mainly import IT, aviation materials, wood, hardware and minerals from Latin America.
IT technology and products, spare parts for aviation materials, timber and hardware minerals are the main commodities I import from Latin America. SAF TEHNIKA is a high-tech enterprise in Latin America, which exports more than one million dollars to me every month. According to Latvian statistics, I imported 50.8% mechanical and electrical products from Latvia; Metals and their products account for 24.9%; Wood and wood products account for 9. 1%.
7. The scale of bilateral direct investment between China and Latin America is at a low level.
In 2004, I registered more than 50 enterprises in Dorate, Latin America, with a total investment of 30,000, about 55,500 US dollars. The investment field is relatively concentrated in the tertiary industry such as trade and catering services, with private or individual family businesses as the mainstay. The investment scale is generally small and the ability to resist risks is weak. There are only two state-owned enterprises investing in Latin America, and one of them has basically closed down for various reasons. But at present, some powerful China companies are eager to enter the Latvian market. For example, Tsinghua Tongfang, Huawei and ZTE have come to Latin America to conduct market research, business negotiations and set up offices.
By the end of February, 2004, there were only six Latin American investment enterprises in China, with contracted foreign investment of1140,000 US dollars and actually used amount of 654.38 million US dollars.
8. China-Latin America bilateral trade has great potential for development.
With the rapid development of China's economy and the new opportunities brought by Latvia's accession to the European Union, in 2005, with the support of the "going out strategy" policy and the further integration of Latvia and the European Union market, the trade and investment between China and Latin America will be further improved and developed in terms of operation quality and scale expansion. According to the statistics of China Customs, in the first quarter of 2005, the import and export trade volume between China and Latin America reached US$ 47.77 million. Among them, the export value was USD 46.04 million, up by16.3% year-on-year; The import value was US$ 654.38+730,000, down 85.3% compared with the same period of last year. It is expected that China's exports to Latin America will continue to grow, and some powerful enterprises will also explore the Latvian market, and the trade between China and Latin America will present a better development prospect.