Central Economic Work Conference Concept Stocks
The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 15th to 16th. The meeting emphasized the need to unswervingly adhere to the direction of socialist market economic reform, enhance the systematicness, integrity, and coordination of the reform, and promote the next step of reform with greater political courage and wisdom.
According to the six major tasks of economic work in 2013 proposed by the Central Economic Work Conference, four main lines of benefits were sorted out: expanding domestic demand, urbanization construction, consolidating the agricultural foundation, and tax reform.
1. Expand domestic demand
1. Cultivate a number of consumption growth points with strong driving force
The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized that in 2013, economic work must strengthen and Improve macro-control and promote sustained and healthy economic development. We must firmly grasp the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand, cultivate a number of consumption growth points with strong driving forces, enhance the basic role of consumption in economic growth, and give full play to the key role of investment in economic growth.
Among the "troika" of investment, consumption, and exports that drive the national economy, China's investment and exports always run "too fast." As the international economic crisis enters a period of deep adjustment, external demand continues to be weak and investment is in urgent need of digestion. Expanding domestic demand will become a new growth point for the economy in the future. Data show that the total retail sales of consumer goods in 2011 was 18,122.6 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 17.1% year-on-year. Letting domestic demand become the engine of growth has become the common sense of China's entire society.
In fact, the market has long expected the expansion of domestic demand, and many topics have long been hot topics in the country, such as: further promoting the reform of the income distribution system and increasing residents’ income levels; the home appliance stimulus policy should continue and be innovative Locally introduce new policies; establish e-commerce and supporting systems, and recommend that the government support the logistics construction of key enterprises, etc.
From the perspective of sector performance, affected by positive expectations, as of December 14, Black Peony, Huafang Textile, Hengshun Vinegar, Dongfang Electric Heating, Renhe Pharmaceutical, Septwolves, Evergreen Group, Yang Stocks such as General Medical, Jiaxin Silk, Zhonghe Shares and Hunan-Eqing have all risen by more than 18% since December. Stocks such as TCL Group, Hisense Electric, Huafang Co., Ltd., Renhe Pharmaceutical, Yilite, Jilin Aodong, Qingdao Haier and Fujian Nanfang had net capital inflows of more than 50 million yuan in December.
Look at the specific industries involved in the concept of big consumption. Fast-moving consumer food has entered a golden period of development. The government's support for consumption, consumption upgrading, further increase in urbanization rate, the continuous development of modern retail industry, and the acceleration of people's pace of life will make the fast-moving consumer food industry usher in a period of rapid development. period of strategic opportunity. It is expected that the next 5-10 years will be the golden stage of development of the fast-moving consumer food industry.
In addition, the logic of expansion in the pharmaceutical industry remains unchanged and the prospects remain the same. my country's population aged 60 and above will reach 300 million in 2025, bringing huge medical needs. The government's continued increase in investment in health care and the decline in the proportion of personal expenditures will further stimulate the release of medical demand. A large amount of capital participates in the medical and health market, providing impetus for the innovative development of the industry. In recent years, my country's approval of generic drugs and new drugs has gradually tightened. Policies encourage innovation and standardization, and high-quality companies will gain greater market space. In the long term, we are optimistic about Hengrui Medicine and Huadong Medicine, which target major diseases and have rich product lines. We are also optimistic about the traditional Chinese medicine consumer products Jiangzhong Pharmaceutical and Yunnan Baiyao.
2. Black Peony
Net profit increased significantly
The company is the only A-share listed company in the domestic denim industry, with product sales areas covering more than 20 countries in the country Provinces, cities, and more than 30 overseas countries and regions, 90% of its products are exported to Japan, Hong Kong, Macao, Europe and the United States. It is praised by foreign businessmen as China's No. 1 denim brand and has become one of the three best-selling denim fabrics in the United States. At present, the company has an annual production capacity of 80 million meters of denim, 8 million pieces of denim clothing, 8 million meters of various yarn-dyed fabrics, and 15,000 tons of spinning yarn.
In addition, the company's development business mainly serves the construction of new cities in northern Changzhou, occupying the core area in terms of business development. New Taipei District covers an area of ??439 square kilometers, and urban development currently accounts for only 1/5 of the entire New Taipei District territory.
Since the reorganization in 2009, the company has gradually formed a business covering urban infrastructure construction, primary land development, affordable housing construction, real estate development, primary land development, vast hectares of farmland engineering construction, science and technology park construction and operation, new A complete industrial chain of urbanization construction integrating industrial development and innovation of traditional industrial models. The company's 2012 third quarter report shows that among the top ten tradable shareholders, Jiangxi Trust's two products held a total of 1.73 million shares (the three trusts held a total of 5.58 million shares in the previous period); the number of shareholders decreased by about 7% from the previous period, and the chips were concentrated. trend.
On October 9, 2012, it was announced that the company's wholly-owned subsidiary Black Mudan Real Estate and the New Taipei Land Reserve Center signed an agreement to acquire the land use rights of the land parcel east of Hengshan Road south of Liaohe Road, Xinbei District, Changzhou City. The agreement stipulates that the New Taipei Land Reserve Center purchased the land acquisition and storage land for a total price of 167 million yuan. The difference between the acquisition amount and the net book value of the land acquisition and storage land assets was approximately 111 million yuan. The company will conduct accounting treatment in accordance with regulations. The event will increase the company's profits in 2012.
Innovative Industry Investment
It is reported that the company focuses on new materials, new energy, energy conservation and environmental protection and other emerging industries, combined with urban industrial upgrading planning, to carry out new industrial investments that focus on technology and capital. Mudan Jiangnan Innovation Industry Investment Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary, has a registered capital of 300 million yuan and is mainly engaged in investment in unlisted equity, acquisition of other high-quality assets, incubation of outstanding small and medium-sized enterprises, introduction of advanced technology and investment in the company's existing technological transformation, etc. At present, Yixing Jiangnan Tianyuan Investment Fund with a total scale of 1 billion yuan has been successfully established and has invested in projects such as Landmark Technology and Jisheng Xingtai.
The company's "2009-2014 Development Plan Outline" revealed that as an integration and value discoverer of urban resources, it will become a management holding group company with regional influence and brand appeal. By 2012, the company's industrial upgrading, urban construction and other urban resource development platform patterns have basically been formed; the company's market value has been fully demonstrated; by 2014, the leading position of new investment industries has been basically determined; the company's brand value has been highlighted; the company's performance has steadily increased, Shareholders receive stable returns on their investment. The overall requirements are that the average annual return on net assets during the planning period should not be less than 10%, and the increase in the return on assets of listed companies should reach 150% of the increase in Changzhou's GDP; at the end of the planning, the total annual profits of listed companies will reach 1.5-2 billion. Yuan.
In addition, the company also participates in finance. The 2012 interim report disclosed that the company holds 110 million shares in Bank of Jiangsu, with an initial investment cost of 132 million yuan.
3. TCL
The company was founded in 1981 and is one of China's largest consumer electronics enterprise groups with global scale operations. TCL has formed four major industrial groups: multimedia, communications, China Star Optoelectronics and TCL Home Appliances, as well as six major business segments: System Technology Division, Techoli Group, Emerging Business Group, Investment Business Group, Hanlinhui Company, and Real Estate.
An announcement was made on December 7, 2012, disclosing the sales data of major products in November 2012. In November, 1.5189 million LCD TVs were sold, a year-on-year increase of 25.80% (including: 1.3552 million LED backlight LCD TVs, A year-on-year increase of 116.48%; smart TVs and 3D TVs were 597,000 units and 277,200 units respectively); sales of mobile phones were 5.017 million units, a year-on-year increase of 8.17% (including sales of 932,600 smartphones, a year-on-year increase of 284.38%); China Star Optoelectronics LCD Glass substrate sales in November were 112,000 pieces (8.5 generation line 2200mm*2500mm).
4. Gree Electric Appliances
The company is currently the world's largest professional air-conditioning enterprise integrating R&D, production, sales and service. The company's "Gree" brand air conditioner is The only "world famous brand" product in China's air conditioning industry, its business covers more than 100 countries and regions around the world. It has 6 major production bases in Zhuhai, Chongqing, Hefei, Brazil, Pakistan, and Vietnam, with more than 50,000 employees. It has developed 20 categories, 400 series, and more than 7,000 varieties, including household air conditioners and commercial air conditioners. specifications of the product. In 2011, it achieved operating income of 83.517 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.35%.
From a performance perspective, the third quarterly report of 2012 shows that from January to September 2012, the company’s net profit was 5.332 billion yuan and operating income was 77.165 billion yuan. Net profit and operating income grew steadily; the increase in sales expenses was due to sales Growth and increased market promotion efforts; the increase in management expenses is due to the expansion of scale; the year-on-year decrease in income from changes in fair value is due to the change in fair value in the current period being gains while the same period last year was losses; the year-on-year decrease in investment income is due to forward foreign exchange Due to the decrease in the profits realized from the transaction.
2. Consolidate the agricultural foundation
1. Rural policy adjustments have attracted attention
The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that it is necessary to consolidate the agricultural foundation and ensure the supply of agricultural products. The resolution of the "three rural" issues must be the top priority of the entire party's work. We must persist in it for a long time and remain unwavering. We must not neglect or relax agriculture in the slightest just because of successive bumper harvests. Our country has a population of 1.3 billion. Only by keeping our jobs firmly in our own hands can we maintain overall social stability. It is necessary to improve the comprehensive agricultural production capacity, strictly protect cultivated land, develop farmland water conservancy, strengthen scientific and technological services, and continuously improve the level of agricultural material technology and equipment. It is necessary to stabilize and improve the policy of strengthening agriculture, benefiting farmers and enriching farmers, fully protecting and mobilizing farmers' enthusiasm for production and management, so that farming and growing grains can be profitable, without suffering losses, and gain benefits. It is necessary to innovate the agricultural management system and accelerate the development of modern agriculture on the basis of adhering to and improving the basic rural management system. It is necessary to strengthen green production and ensure the quality and safety of agricultural products from the source.
It is worth noting that, following usual practice, after the Central Economic Work Conference, the Central Rural Work Conference will be held in late December or at the end of the month. Market participants expect that the No. 1 Central Document in 2013 is expected to focus on the agricultural management system. Affected by this positive expectation, agricultural stocks have also become a popular sector recently. Last Friday, the agricultural sector as a whole rose 5.44%. Among them, Luoniushan has even closed its daily limit. In fact, since November 29, Luoniushan opened at 4.43 yuan/share, and after half a month of gains, it closed at 5.57 yuan/share, an increase of more than 25%. In addition, many agricultural stocks such as Jin Xinnong, Dakang Animal Husbandry, and Fenglin Group have also taken turns to perform daily limit shows recently.
It is revealed that the central government’s research work on the “agriculture, rural areas and farmers” policy began in the middle of the year. Recently, intensive meetings at the central level have released signals of changes in agricultural policies. Focusing on issues such as food security and farmers' income increase, how rural policies will be adjusted has attracted much attention.
With the intensive flow of commercial capital to the countryside, "company + farmers" has become one of the leading models for agricultural development in various places. However, some scholars believe that if market news is true, the upcoming No. 1 Central Document may change this situation. It is predicted that the basic spirit of the policy is to innovate and develop production and management forms such as large professional households, family farms, professional cooperatives, and agricultural industrialization on the basis of adhering to farmers as the main body of agricultural production and management.
It is necessary to focus on the key national leading enterprises in agricultural industrialization, and increase support in terms of policy support, mergers and reorganizations, and integration and listing of agricultural industrialization.
2. Beidahuang
The company is the largest and most modern agricultural listed company and commercial grain production base in my country. It is one of the key leading enterprises in the national agricultural industrialization. It has received preferential treatment in taxation, bank credit, allotment financing, etc., and its level of agricultural mechanization, water conservancy, and improved seeds is in a leading position in the country, and it has obvious equipment advantages and technological advantages. The company has 16 agricultural branches, 1 fertilizer branch and 8 subsidiaries, with 9.36 million acres of arable land.
3. Huaying Agriculture
The company is the largest integrated processing enterprise of Cherry Valley duck in the country. Its leading products are frozen duck, duck seedlings, duck feathers and cooked food products. The company is one of the 35 cooked food processing enterprises in China recognized by the Japanese government. The "Huaying" trademark has been rated as "China's Famous Trademark", and its products have been rated as "China's Famous Brand Agricultural Products", "National Pollution-free Agricultural Products" and many other honors. .
The company announced on December 14, 2012 that the company's adjustment to the non-public issuance plan was approved by the Henan Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission. The company plans to adjust to a non-public offering of no more than 132 million shares (originally no more than 92.04 million shares) at a price of no less than 4.65 yuan/share (originally 6.66 yuan/share) and invest in 20 million/year commercial chicken farms and 20 million Commercial duck slaughtering, 40 million/year Cherry Valley commercial duckling production project and supplementary working capital.
From a performance perspective, the company expects net profit in 2012 to be 5 to 10 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 94% to 88%, which was 85.2066 million yuan in the same period last year. Explanation of reasons: Affected by unfavorable factors in the domestic environment, the sales prices of major products have declined compared with the previous year. Coupled with the continued increase in feed raw material procurement costs and labor costs, the company's operating performance will decline significantly.
3. New Urbanization
1. The Historical Task of China’s Modernization Construction
The Central Economic Work Conference concluded in Beijing on the 16th. The meeting proposed that urbanization is The historical task of China's modernization drive, which is also the greatest potential for expanding domestic demand, is to focus on improving the quality of urbanization, taking advantage of the situation, seeking advantages and avoiding disadvantages, and actively guiding the healthy development of urbanization.
At the end of 2011, China’s urban population exceeded its rural population for the first time, marking the “turning point” of urbanization, which will lead to changes in the mode of economic development. He Maochun, director of the Economic Diplomacy Research Center of Tsinghua University, said that China's urbanization is a process of continuous evolution and sublimation, and now it has reached a critical period from quantitative growth to quality improvement.
Statistics show that every 1 percentage point increase in China’s urbanization rate can bring about 7 trillion yuan in market demand.
At present, my country's urbanization rate is basically around 51%, which is significantly lower than other emerging markets. The urbanization rate in developed countries is generally close to or higher than 80%. Neighboring countries such as Malaysia and the Philippines, whose per capita income is similar to ours, also have urbanization rates above 60%. According to international experience, the urbanization rate will stabilize only when it reaches 70%. This means that from the perspective of horizontal comparison and empirical rules, China’s urbanization is far from stopping.
Furthermore, the accelerated stage of urbanization will help provide a driving force for my country's economic development. While urbanization has brought a large number of rural people into cities and towns, it has also brought about a substantial increase in consumer demand and increased investment demand in infrastructure, public service facilities, and housing construction. It can be said that the urbanization process runs through investment and consumption and is an important source of power to promote economic development. More importantly, the infrastructure construction brought about by urbanization will help digest the excess production capacity of industrialization and help the economy complete the transformation from investment-driven to consumption-driven. If the urbanization rate increases by one percentage point every year in the future, it will take nearly 20 years to reach 70%. In other words, the investment and consumer demand brought about by urbanization will provide a driving force for the development of the domestic economy in the next 10 to 20 years and promote a smooth transition of economic transformation.